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<p>Created page with &quot; == Abstract == Monte Carlo methodology is proposed for simulating air traffic blockage patterns under the impact of convective weather. The simulation utilizes probabilisti...&quot;</p> <p><b>New page</b></p><div><br /> == Abstract ==<br /> <br /> Monte Carlo methodology is proposed for simulating air traffic blockage patterns under the impact of convective weather. The simulation utilizes probabilistic convective weather forecasts such as those produced by the 1-6 hour National Convective Weather Forecast. A matrix of random numbers is fed to the simulation process to obtain an instantiation of traffic blockage maps. Gaussian smoothing with varying Full Width at Half Maximum across the grid is employed to model the varying spatial correlation between cells. Special Cellular Automata techniques are employed to model the evolvement, i. e. the trend, growth, and dissipation of convection, between consecutive time intervals. Model parameters are obtained from analyzing historical convective weather data. A software tool is also developed to implement the simulation methodology. The simulation methodology thus provides a means to improve the utilization of short term probabilistic convective weather forecast products, and to improve air traffic efficiency in the large.<br /> <br /> <br /> == Original document ==<br /> <br /> The different versions of the original document can be found in:<br /> <br /> * [http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/236.pdf http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/236.pdf]<br /> <br /> * [http://xplorestaging.ieee.org/ielx5/4419575/4419576/04419817.pdf?arnumber=4419817 http://xplorestaging.ieee.org/ielx5/4419575/4419576/04419817.pdf?arnumber=4419817],<br /> : [http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wsc.2007.4419817 http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wsc.2007.4419817]<br /> <br /> * [https://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/conf/wsc/wsc2007.html#RenCSCBJ07 https://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/conf/wsc/wsc2007.html#RenCSCBJ07],<br /> : [http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/236.pdf http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/236.pdf],<br /> : [http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/yadda/element/bwmeta1.element.ieee-000004419817 http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/yadda/element/bwmeta1.element.ieee-000004419817],<br /> : [https://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1351542.1351881 https://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1351542.1351881],<br /> : [https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1351542.1351881 https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1351542.1351881],<br /> : [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Liling_Ren2/publication/40842278_Simulating_Air_Traffic_Blockage_due_to_Convective_Weather_Conditions/links/55bd770008ae092e966387bf.pdf https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Liling_Ren2/publication/40842278_Simulating_Air_Traffic_Blockage_due_to_Convective_Weather_Conditions/links/55bd770008ae092e966387bf.pdf],<br /> : [https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2111221611 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2111221611]</div>

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