Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 672533822 to Milakis et al 2017a

2021-02-16T09:30:10Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 672533822 to Milakis et al 2017a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == utomated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates wil..."

2021-02-16T09:30:07Z

Created page with " == Abstract == utomated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates wil..."

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== Abstract ==

utomated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV ...in standby, AV ...in bloom, AV ...in demand, AV ...in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate the market rapidly after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. Measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities are expected in three out of the four scenario

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2017.17.1.3180 http://dx.doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2017.17.1.3180]

* [http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:154a5dd5-3296-4939-99c7-776e3ba54745 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:154a5dd5-3296-4939-99c7-776e3ba54745]

* [http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1714e82f-f13c-4e91-b6b5-0079600f32ea http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1714e82f-f13c-4e91-b6b5-0079600f32ea]

* [https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/index.php/ejtir/article/view/3180 https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/index.php/ejtir/article/view/3180],
: [https://doaj.org/toc/1567-7141 https://doaj.org/toc/1567-7141]

* [ ]

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Milakis et al 2017a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 672533822 to Milakis et al 2017a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == utomated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates wil..."