Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 391918694 to Gillen 2009a

2021-01-25T15:29:21Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 391918694 to Gillen 2009a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == The objective of this paper is relatively straightforward, suggesting “what international air passenger travel will look like in five, ten or fifteen years..."

2021-01-25T15:29:18Z

Created page with " == Abstract == The objective of this paper is relatively straightforward, suggesting “what international air passenger travel will look like in five, ten or fifteen years..."

New page

== Abstract ==

The objective of this paper is relatively straightforward, suggesting “what international air passenger travel will look like in five, ten or fifteen years and why?” This requires answering two questions; what will be the principal determinants of the growth in international air travel and what impact will each of these drivers have on the growth rate? An imbedded question is does history have anything to teach us or are there new forces at work? Canvassing the current aviation trade press finds two schools of thought, one taking the position that this a deep recession but a recession nonetheless and once world economies start recovering air traffic will go back to the typical growth of 4-5 percent annually. A second school is less sanguine, taking the position that it will not be business as usual when economies stop sinking and move to recovery. Any economic recovery is going to involve fundamental changes in institutions, rethinking polices regarding government participation in economies and changes in economic leadership in the world. There is also the hydra of protectionism most prominent now in the US but certainly being practiced elsewhere, and what will happen to foreign ownership restrictions that prior to 2009 were being seen as hurting rather than helping world airlines. All of this will change international aviation going forward.

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kmmr3hj23vk-en http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kmmr3hj23vk-en]

* [http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68774 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68774]

* [https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/international-air-passenger-transport-in-the-future_5kmmr3hj23vk.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpaper%2F5kmmr3hj23vk-en&mimeType=pdf https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/international-air-passenger-transport-in-the-future_5kmmr3hj23vk.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpaper%2F5kmmr3hj23vk-en&mimeType=pdf]

* [http://internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/dp200915.pdf http://internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/dp200915.pdf],
: [https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/international-air-passenger-transport-in-the-future_5kmmr3hj23vk-en https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/international-air-passenger-transport-in-the-future_5kmmr3hj23vk-en],
: [https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/68774 https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/68774],
: [https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/itfaaa/2009-15-en.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/itfaaa/2009-15-en.html],
: [http://internationaltransportforum.org/proceedings/symp2009/1-gillen.pdf http://internationaltransportforum.org/proceedings/symp2009/1-gillen.pdf],
: [https://trid.trb.org/view/926635 https://trid.trb.org/view/926635],
: [https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/15-en https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:itfaaa:2009/15-en],
: [https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2171950170 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2171950170]

← Older revision	Revision as of 15:29, 25 January 2021
(No difference)

Gillen 2009a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 391918694 to Gillen 2009a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == The objective of this paper is relatively straightforward, suggesting “what international air passenger travel will look like in five, ten or fifteen years..."