Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 720648626 to Fridstrøm et al 2016a

2021-02-12T13:24:32Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 720648626 to Fridstrøm et al 2016a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. T..."

2021-02-12T13:24:29Z

Created page with " == Abstract == Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. T..."

New page

== Abstract ==

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars.

Document type: Article

== Full document ==
<pdf>Media:Draft_Content_720648626-beopen334-9563-document.pdf</pdf>

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z] under the license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by

* [http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2602442 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2602442] under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

* [https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12544-016-0210-z.pdf https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12544-016-0210-z.pdf]

* [http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z.pdf http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z.pdf],
: [http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z/fulltext.html http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z/fulltext.html],
: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z] under the license cc-by

* [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z],
: [https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12544-016-0210-z.pdf https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs12544-016-0210-z.pdf],
: [https://toi.brage.unit.no/toi-xmlui/handle/11250/2602442 https://toi.brage.unit.no/toi-xmlui/handle/11250/2602442],
: [https://etrr.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z https://etrr.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z],
: [https://core.ac.uk/display/81613388 https://core.ac.uk/display/81613388],
: [https://etrr.springeropen.com/articles/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z https://etrr.springeropen.com/articles/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z],
: [https://paperity.org/p/77692884/a-stock-flow-cohort-model-of-the-national-car-fleet https://paperity.org/p/77692884/a-stock-flow-cohort-model-of-the-national-car-fleet],
: [https://trid.trb.org/view/1420076 https://trid.trb.org/view/1420076],
: [https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2500226074 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2500226074] under the license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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Fridstrøm et al 2016a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 720648626 to Fridstrøm et al 2016a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. T..."