Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 703074720 to Estache et al 2000a

2020-10-14T13:13:27Z

Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 703074720 to Estache et al 2000a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities availabl..."

2020-10-14T13:13:23Z

Created page with " == Abstract == Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities availabl..."

New page

== Abstract ==

Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments, and regulators avoid good demand, modeling out of lack of conviction that theory, and models can do better than the"old hands"of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $ 100-200 million, a cost of $ 100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees, or insurance with their forecasts, to cover significant gaps between forecasts, and reality.

Document type: Book

== Full document ==
<pdf>Media:Draft_Content_703074720-beopen740-1824-document.pdf</pdf>

== Original document ==

The different versions of the original document can be found in:

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2446 http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2446]

* [http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.293881 http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.293881]

* [http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1aba/1fa4ebc58fabe25645e969184e700aba5cd9.pdf http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1aba/1fa4ebc58fabe25645e969184e700aba5cd9.pdf]

* [http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/10/27/000094946_00101306310524/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/10/27/000094946_00101306310524/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf]

DOIS: 10.2139/ssrn.293881 10.1596/1813-9450-2446

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Estache et al 2000a - Revision history

Scipediacontent: Scipediacontent moved page Draft Content 703074720 to Estache et al 2000a

Scipediacontent: Created page with " == Abstract == Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities availabl..."