Scipedia: Documents published in 2017

Research Progress in Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:51 +0200

With the deepening of climate change research, more attention has been paid to vulnerability to climate change. Compared with water resources, forests and other natural ecosystems, agriculture is more vulnerable to climate change, thereby scientifically assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change is of great significance to the formulation of rational and effective adaptation strategies. In this paper, the authors give a comprehensive review of the research from the perspective of the definition of climate change vulnerability and agricultural vulnerability to climate change, research topics, and evaluation methodologies. Existing problems in current research, including scenario application, methods, and uncertainties, are analyzed, and meanwhile, a vision of the direction for future research in assessment of agricultural vulnerability is also presented. Tao, S., Y. Xu, K. Liu, et al., 2011: Research progress in agricultural vulnerability to climate change. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 2 (4), doi:10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00203.

Comparative Analysis of China Surface Air Temperature Series for the Past 100 Years

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:47 +0200

Temperature change plays a crucial role in global change sciences. In the past several decades, comprehensive findings have been achieved on temperature change in China for the past 100 years. Several time series have been created to illustrate the averaged surface air temperature for the country. The correlations of these series range from 0.73 to 0.97. It is also achieved in better data quality, wider spatial data coverage, improved homogeneity of time series, and enhanced reliability of findings. The results show an annual mean temperature increase by 0.78±0.27°C per 100 years in China for the period 1906–2005. After prolonging the period till 2007, it is found that 2007 is rated as the warmest year in the past 100 years. Although all the series, except one, reflect temperature changes in the eastern part of China before the 1930s, they represent the general temperature change in most parts of the country after the 1930s. Tang, G., Y. Ding, S. Wang, et al., 2010: Comparative analysis of China surface air temperature series for the past 100 years. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00011.

Climate Change Facts in Central China during 1961–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:39 +0200

Based on the observations from 239 meteorological stations located in Central China (Henan, Hubei and Hunan provinces), this paper focuses on the climate change facts during 1961–2010. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature for Central China during 1961–2010. The increasing rate was 0.15°C per decade, which was lower than the national trend. Since the mid-1980s, temperature increasing was obvious. Large increasing rate was observed in the mid-eastern part of Central China. For the four seasons, the increasing rate in winter was the largest (0.27°C per decade). The increasing rate in the annual mean minimum temperature was larger than that in the annual mean maximum temperature from 1961 to 2010. As a result, the diurnal range of temperature decreased at the rate of –0.10°C per decade. The extreme high temperature events were increasing while the extreme low temperature events were significantly decreasing. There was no obvious trend in annual precipitation for Central China during 1961–2010. Precipitation in summer and winter significantly increased, change of precipitation in spring was not obvious, precipitation in autumn was decreasing. The decreasing rate of annual rainy days was –3.4 d per decade. The precipitation intensity increased at the rate of 0.25 mm d–1 per decade. Heavy-rain days significantly increased. Spring and summer started earlier while autumn and winter started later. As a result, spring and summer duration was expanding whereas autumn and winter duration shortened. Wan, S.-Q., Y. Gao, B. Zhou, et al., 2013: Climate change facts in Central China during 1961–2010.Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.103.

Quality Control and Analysis of Global Gauge-Based Daily Precipitation Dataset from 1980 to 2009

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:32 +0200

A series of quality control (QC) procedures were performed on a gauge-based global daily precipitation dataset from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for the period 1980–2009. A new global daily precipitation (NGDP) dataset was constructed by applying those QC procedures to eliminate erroneous records. The NGDP dataset was evaluated using the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation datasets. The results showed that the frequency distribution and spatial distribution pattern of NGDP had a nice match with those from the CMAP and GPCP datasets. The global mean correlation coefficients with the CMAP and GPCP data increased from 0.24 for original GTS precipitation data to about 0.70 for NGDP data. Correspondingly, the root mean square errors (RMSE) decreased from 12 mm per day to 1 mm per day. The interannual variabilities of NGDP monthly precipitation are consistent with the CMAP and GPCP datasets in Asia. Meanwhile, the seasonal variabilities for most land areas on the Earth of NGDP dataset are also consistent with the CMAP and GPCP precipitation products. Nie, S.-P., Y. Luo, W.-P. Li, et al., 2012: Quality control and analysis of global gauge-based daily precipitation dataset from 1980 to 2009. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00045.

Analysis of China’s Haze Days in the Winter Half-Year and the Climatic Background during 1961–2012

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:26 +0200

The characteristics of haze days and the climatic background are analyzed by using daily observations of haze, precipitation, mean and maximum wind speed of 664 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2012. The results show that haze days occur significantly more often in eastern China than in western China. The annual number of haze days is 5–30 d in most parts of central-eastern China, with some areas experiencing more than 30 d, while less than 5 d are averagely occurring in western China. Haze days are mainly concentrated in the winter half-year, with most in winter, followed by autumn, spring, and then summer. Nearly 20% of annual haze days are experienced in December. The haze days in central-eastern China in the winter half-year have a significant increasing trend of 1.7 d per decade during 1961–2012. There were great increases in haze days in the 1960s, 1970s and the beginning of the 21st century. There was also significant abrupt changes of haze days in the early 1970s and 2000s. From 1961 to 2012, haze days in the winter half-year increased in South China, the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and North China, but decreased in Northeast China, eastern Northwest China and eastern Southwest China. The number of persistent haze is rising. The Longer the haze, the greater the proportion to the number persistent haze. Certain climatic conditions exacerbated the occurrence of haze. The correlation coefficient between haze days and precipitation days in the winter half-year is mainly negative in central-eastern China. The precipitation days show a decreasing trend in most parts of China, with a rate of around –4.0 d per decade in central-eastern China, which reduces the sedimentation capacity of atmospheric pollutants. During the period of 1961–2012, the correlation coefficients between haze days and mean wind speed and strong wind days are mainly negative in central-eastern China, while there exists positive correlation between haze days and breeze days in the winter half-year. The mean wind speed and strong wind days are decreasing, while breeze days are increasing in most parts of China, which is benefitial to the reduction of the pollutants diffusion capacity. As a result, haze occurs more easily. Song, L.-C., R. Gao, Y. Li, et al., 2014: Analysis of China’s haze days in the winter half-year and the climatic background during 1961–2012. Adv. Clim . Change Res ., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.001.

Development of National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories in the Context of International Climate Negotiations

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:22 +0200

Based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the UNFCCC has different requirements on national GHG inventories submitted by Annex I and non-Annex I parties. Since 2007, the transparency of mitigation actions by developing countries, the submission frequency of national communications cored on national inventory and the relevant international consultation and analysis have become the key issues in climate negotiations. Relevant responsibilities of developing countries showed an increasing trend. Through the analysis of these different requirements, particularly on technical review system of national inventories on developed countries and of the current situation of China’s inventory development, the challenges faced by China are identified and the corresponding countermeasures are also put forward, including improving institutional arrangements and statistic system, building country-specific and comprehensive database and preparing for time-series inventory development. Zhu, S.-L., and W.-T. Wang, 2013: Development of national greenhouse gas emissions inventories in the context of international climate negotiations. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.060.

7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change (ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:18 +0200

Influence of urbanization on the thermal environment of meteorological station: Satellite-observed evidence

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:11 +0200

In this paper, five national meteorological stations in Anhui province are taken as typical examples to explore the effects of local urbanization on their thermal environment by using Landsat data from 1990 to 2010. Satellite-based land use/land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are used to investigate the effects. The study shows that LULC around meteorological stations changed significantly due to urban expansion. Fast urbanization is the main factor that affects the spatial-temporal distribution of thermal environment around meteorological stations. Moreover, the normalized LST and NDVI exhibit strong inverse correlations around meteorological stations, so the variability of LST can be monitored through evaluating the variability of NDVI. In addition, station-relocation plays an important role in improving representativeness of thermal environment. Notably, the environment representativeness was improved, but when using the data from the station to study climate change, the relocation-induced inhomogeneous data should be considered and adjusted. Consequently, controlling the scale and layout of the urban buildings and constructions around meteorological stations is an effective method to ameliorate observational thermal environment and to improve regional representativeness of station observation. The present work provides observational evidences that high resolution Landsat images can be used to evaluate the thermal environment of meteorological stations.

Wind speed change regionalization in China (1961–2012)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:03 +0200

This research quantitatively recognized the wind speed change using wind speed trend and trend of wind speed variability from 1961 to 2012 and regionalized the wind speed change on a county-level basis. The mean wind speed observation data and linear fitting method were used. The findings suggested that level-I regionalization includes six zones according to wind speed trend value in different regions, viz . Northeast China–North China substantial declining zone, East–Central China declining zone, Southeast China slightly declining zone, Southwest China very slightly declining zone, Northwest China declining zone, and Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau slightly declining zone. Level-II regionalization divides China into twelve regions based on trend of wind speed variability and the level-I regionalization results.

The Utilization of Real-Time High Resolution Monitoring Techniques in Karst Carbon Sequestration: A Case Study of the Station in Banzhai Subterranean Stream Catchment

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:58 +0200

The karst process acts as carbon sequestration for atmospheric CO2 . The amount of karst carbon sequestration (KCS) depends on the discharge of karst catchment and inorganic carbon concentration of the water body. Based on the data from the monitoring station on Banzhai subterranean stream located in Maolan National Nature Reserve of Guizhou province, the process and influence factors of KCS have been analyzed. It shows that the amount of KCS is about 353 t C per year in the catchment of Banzhai subterranean stream, and there is good linear relationship between the strength of KCS and discharge of the stream at various time scales. Therefore, how to monitor the discharge accurately is the key to the estimation of KCS. And stations with real-time monitoring function are very important for KCS calculation because of strong seasonal variability of the karst water cycle. He, S.-Y., Z.-Q. Kang, Q.-Y. Li, et al., 2012: The utilization of real-time high resolution monitoring techniques in karst carbon sequestration: A case study of the station in Banzhai subterranean stream catchment. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00054.

Life Cycle Assessment, Estimation and Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of New Energy Power Generation in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:52 +0200

From the perspective of life cycle assessment (LCA), the development, construction, and operation of all kinds of new energy power generation technologies release greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sparks concerns about the low-carbon nature of the new energy power generation technologies. Based on national and international literature review, this paper estimates and compares the GHG emission factors of traditional thermal power generation and new energy power generation technologies in China with the LCA approach. The GHG mitigation potential of new energy power generation technologies as substitution for traditional thermal power generation in China was evaluated, according to the objectives of new energy power generation of the national development planning. The results show that the GHG emission factors of new energy power generation are much lower than that of traditional thermal power generation even with LCA accounting, and the GHG mitigation potential of new energy substitution is huge. Liu, S.-Q., X.-Q. Mao, Y.-B. Gao, et al., 2012: Life cycle assessment, estimation and comparison of greenhouse gas mitigation potential of new energy power generation in China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00147.

Climate Change Risk Research: A Case Study on Flood Disaster Risk in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:47 +0200

This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China’s floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management. Wu, S.-H., T. Pan, and S.-F. He, 2012: Climate change risk research: A case study on flood disaster risk in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00092.

Decadal Variations of Extreme Tropical Cyclones Influencing China during 1949–2009

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:41 +0200

Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China were investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949–2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC’s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events are observed, is the largest in the 1980s. Zhao, S.-S., and X.-L. Wang, 2012: Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones influencing China during 1949–2009. Adv. Clim.Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00121.

Urbanization as a major driver of urban climate change

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:35 +0200

Assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes of different regions in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:27 +0200

The aim of this work is to investigate the soil water budget across China by means of hydrological modeling under current and future climate conditions and to evaluate the sensitivity to soil parameters. For this purpose, observed precipitation and temperature data (1981–2010) and climate simulations (2021–2050, 2071–2100) at high resolution (about 14 km) on a large part of China are used as weather forcing. The simulated weather forcing has been bias corrected by means of the distribution derived quantile mapping method to eliminate the effects of systematic biases in current climate modeling on water cycle components. As hydrological models, two 1D models are tested: TERRA-ML and HELP. Concerning soil properties, two datasets, provided respectively by Food and Agriculture Organization and U.S. Department of Agriculture, are separately tested. The combination of two hydrological models, two soil parameter datasets and three weather forcing inputs (observations, raw and bias corrected climate simulations) results in five different simulation chains. The study highlights how the choice of some approaches or soil parameterizations can affect the results both in absolute and in relative terms and how these differences could be highly related to weather forcing in inputs or investigated soil. The analyses point out a decrease in average water content in the shallower part of the soil with different extents according to climate zone, concentration scenario and soil/cover features. Moreover, the projected increase in temperature and then in evapotranspirative demand do not ever result in higher actual evapotranspiration values, due to the concurrent variations in precipitation patterns.

A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:19 +0200

This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model, a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model, and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation.

EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks: Operational aspects and link to climate action

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:15 +0200

Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities: the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

Key Issues on Cryospheric Changes, Trends and Their Impacts

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:11 +0200

On the basis of analyzing the importance of cryospheric researches in China and current status of cryospheric sciences in the world, this paper addresses key issues and main contents of present cryospheric sciences in China. The key issues currently addressed are: i) mechanisms of different types of glaciers in response to climate change and the scale-conversion in water resources assessments, ii) modeling of water and heat exchanges between frozen soil and vegetation, iii) parameterization of physical processes in cryosphere as well as coupling with climate models. To gain full clarification of these key issues, works of the following three aspects should be highlighted, i.e., cryospheric processes and responses to climate change, influences of cryospheric changes, and adaptation strategies for cryospheric changes. Qin, D., and Y. Ding, 2010: Key issues on cryospheric changes, trends and their impacts. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00001.

Effects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Processes in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:05 +0200

The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES, called the RegCM3_CERES model, was used to study the effects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China. A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin, Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin. When compared with the RegCM3 control run, RegCM3_CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer, especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin. The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer (JJA) was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze, Haihe, Huaihe and Pearl Rivers. The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components (runoff, evapotranspiration and total precipitation) over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation. Compared to the RegCM3, RegCM3_CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin, but reduced precipitation in the other five basins. Furthermore, a lower summer leaf area index (1.20 m2 m–2 ), greater root soil moisture (0.01 m3 m–3 ), lower latent heat flux (1.34 W m–2 ), and greater sensible heat flux (2.04 W m–2 ) are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin. Qin, P.-H., F. Chen, and Z.-H. Xie, 2013: Effects of crop growth on hydrological processes in river basins and on regional climate in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.173.

Flexibility Required to Meet China’s Mandatory Green Targets Set in the 12th Five-Year Plan

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:30:00 +0200

The Status Quo and Development Trend of Low-carbon Vehicle Technologies in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:56 +0200

Three types of low-carbon vehicle technologies in China are reviewed. Potential effects are listed for those integrated energy-saving technologies for conventional vehicles. Low carbon transitions, including alternative vehicle power train systems and fuels, are discussed on their development status and trends, including life cycle primary fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of each pathway. To further support the low-carbon vehicle technologies development, integrated policies should seek to: (1) employ those integrated energy-saving technologies, (2) apply hybrid electric technology, (3) commercialize electric vehicles through battery technology innovation, (4) support fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen technology R&D for future potential applications, (5) boost the R&D of second generation biofuel technology, and (6) conduct further research on applying low-carbon technologies including CO2 capture and storage technology to coal-based transportation solutions. Ou, X., and X. Zhang, 2010: The status quo and development trend of low-carbon vehicle technologies in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00034.

Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: Chinas explorations in a global governance landscape

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:51 +0200

We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy (trade-climate-energy nexus). Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the worlds greatest trading nation: China. After clarifying the linkages within the trade, climate change and energy nexus, this article delves into Chinas specific needs and interests related to trade, climate change and energy. Then it explores the ways in which trade can contribute to Chinas needs, to sustainable energy development and to the goals of the global climate agreement that is under negotiation. One main findings are China is a key participant in negotiations on trade liberalization of environmental technologies and services. These negotiations are in Chinas interests in terms of innovative industries, technological upgrading, employment and public health. China could stand up for the interests of other emerging and developing countries and serve as an example in terms of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Beyond trade barriers issues of domestic (energy) regulation such as fossil-fuel subsidies as well as investment, competition-policy, trade-facilitation and transit issues related to clean energy need to be addressed. Building trust between relevant actors across sectors and national borders will be of the essence in order to foster long-term cooperation on technological innovation. As a way forward, different approaches towards the governance of trade and climate change will be highlighted. Besides discussing the specific aspects of Chinese participation in global trade and climate change governance, this paper aims at offering broader insights into the nexus between trade, energy and climate governance in China.

Climate Change Adaptation for People and Nature: A Case Study from the U.S. Southwest

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:43 +0200

In the U.S. Southwest, global climate change, acting in concert with extant stressors such as urbanization and over-allocation of water resources, is changing ecosystems in measureable and sometimes dramatic ways. Twenty-first century projections indicate accelerating climate change and cascading ecological consequences. Effects observed to date include large-scale forest dieback, large and severe wildfires, and changes in the flow regimes of rivers and streams with attendant changes to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are pushing ecosystems across physiological and ecological thresholds, causing widespread mortality and, in some cases, major changes in composition, structure and function. These changes have prompted action by the conservation community to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI), a project led by The Nature Conservancy, works with local stakeholders in affected landscapes, reduces adverse impacts on ecological and social systems using scientific knowledge and practical tools. The Initiative has learned through practical experience that: 1) managers must embrace change and manage for resilience rather than resistance, 2) strong local science-management partnerships are critical to effective adaptation planning and implementation, 3) planners and managers must broaden the scope and accelerate the pace of conservation activities if ecosystem services are to be sustained, 4) adaptation often does not require radically new or different management practices, rather, conservationists already have many of the tools they need, and 5) rapid documentation and widespread communication of methods and findings can build rapidly regional capacity for climate change adaptation. Our experience suggests that adaptation efforts can be effective if they are focused at the local scale, employ learning networks, and engage in ecosystem-based adaptation: the sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems so that they continue to provide the services that allow people to thrive in changing environments. McCarthy, P. D., 2012: Climate change adaptation for people and nature: A case study from the U.S. Southwest. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00022.

Decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions: A decomposition analysis of Chinas household energy consumption

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:30 +0200

This paper analyzes Chinese household CO2 emissions in 1994–2012 based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) structure decomposition model, and discusses the relationship between household CO2 emissions and economic growth based on a decoupling indicator. The results show that in 1994–2012, household CO2 emissions grew in general and displayed an accelerated growth trend during the early 21st century. Economic growth leading to an increase in energy consumption is the main driving factor of CO2 emission growth (an increase of 1.078 Gt CO2 ) with cumulative contribution rate of 55.92%, while the decline in energy intensity is the main cause of CO2 emission growth inhibition (0.723 Gt CO2 emission reduction) with cumulative contribution rate of 38.27%. Meanwhile, household CO2 emissions are in a weak state of decoupling in general. The change in CO2 emissions caused by population and economic growth shows a weak decoupling and expansive decoupling state, respectively. The CO2 emission change caused by energy intensity is in a state of strong decoupling, and the change caused by energy consumption structure fluctuates between a weak and a strong decoupling state.

Sensitivity of the Number of Snow Cover Days to Surface Air Temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:22 +0200

Based on the number of snow cover days (NSCDs) and homogenized surface air temperature data for the period 1951–2004, this study performs the quantitative analysis on the sensitivity of NSCDs to surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Results show that both the extreme sensitivity and sensitivity under current climate are higher in the edge than in the central area of the QTP. There exists a strong negative correlation between station’s elevation and critical temperature, at which the sensitivity reaches extremum. The negative correlation between the elevation and the extreme sensitivity is not as strong as the former one. Currently, the climatological temperatures in quite a few stations do not reach the critical stage. The sensitivity at these stations will become greater under the current background of climate warming, which means NSCDs will be more sensitive to surface air temperature. Ma, L., D. Qin, L. Bian, et al., 2010: Sensitivity of the number of snow cover days to surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00076.

Assessment of Snow Cover Vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:15 +0200

By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), this paper performs an “at-risk” evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on daily air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0°C is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0°C air temperature and 4.0 mm (autumn) or 3.0 mm (spring) snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with “at-risk” accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the “at-risk” snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with “at-risk” accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with “at-risk” snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5°C in 2050, only the snowfall at a few “at-risk” snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most “at-risk” accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become “at-risk” accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover. Ma, L., D. Qin, L. Bian, et al., 2011: Assessment of snow cover vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00093.

Tibetan Plateau Geladaindong black carbon ice core record (1843–1982): Recent increases due to higher emissions and lower snow accumulation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:08 +0200

Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC from the central Tibetan Plateau. Post 1940 the record is characterized by an increased occurrence of years with above average BC, and the highest BC values of the record. The BC increase in recent decades is likely caused by a combination of increased emissions from regional BC sources, and a reduction in snow accumulation. Guoqu glacier has received no net ice accumulation since the 1980s, and is a potential example of a glacier where an increase in the equilibrium line altitude is exposing buried high impurity layers. That BC concentrations in the uppermost layers of the Geladaindong ice core are not substantially higher relative to deeper in the ice core suggests that some of the BC that must have been deposited on Guoqu glacier via wet or dry deposition between 1983 and 2005 has been removed from the surface of the glacier, potentially via supraglacial or englacial meltwater.

Air Quality Legislation and Standards in the European Union: Background, Status and Public Participation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:29:03 +0200

In order to improve air quality, the European Union introduced the New Air Quality Directive in 2008 and set its Member States strict targets on air pollution concentrations for the most harmful and challenging substances, such as fine particles. The law enforcement relies on a monitoring and reporting system to inform the European Commission and the public, for it is the citizens’ right to be informed about harmful air quality. With sectoral measures, air quality could be improved in the past 20 years, but some emissions concentrations have stagnated in recent years and emissions temporarily exceed thresholds in nearly half of the Member States. The European Emission Inventory allows the commission to identify the substances, areas, and times of exceedances, and to implement sectoral measures leading to air quality improvements, all of which have to be made available publicly. This manuscript introduces the air quality legislation and reviews the quality of European air for recent years. Gemmer, M., and B. Xiao, 2013: Air quality legislation and standards in the European Union: Background, status and public participation. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.050.

Impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on decadal, interannual, and seasonal variations of atmospheric black carbon in the Tibetan Plateau

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:56 +0200

We quantified the impacts of variations in meteorological parameters and emissions on decadal, interannual, and seasonal variations of atmospheric black carbon (BC) in the Tibetan Plateau for 1980–2010 using a global 3-dimensional chemical transport model driven by the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. From 1980 to 2010, simulated surface BC concentrations and all-sky direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to atmospheric BC increased by 0.15 μg m−3 (63%) and by 0.23 W m−2 (62%), respectively, averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (75–105°E, 25–40°N). Simulated annual mean surface BC concentrations were in the range of 0.24–0.40 μg m−3 averaged over the plateau for 1980–2010, with the decadal trends of 0.13 μg m−3 per decade in the 1980s and 0.08 in the 2000s. The interannual variations were −5.4% to 7.0% for deviation from the mean, 0.0062 μg m−3 for mean absolute deviation, and 2.5% for absolute percent departure from the mean. Model sensitivity simulations indicated that the decadal trends of surface BC concentrations were mainly driven by changes in emissions, while the interannual variations were dependent on variations of both meteorological parameters and emissions. Meteorological parameters played a crucial role in driving the interannual variations of BC especially in the monsoon season.

Assessment of achievements of the Lima Climate Change Conference and perspectives on the future

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:51 +0200

The Lima call for climate action adopted at the Lima Climate Conference on Climate Change specifies that the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, shall apply to the new climate agreement to be adopted at the Paris Conference on Climate Change in 2015. Decisions on other heavily debated items, including the intended nationally determined contributions, were also made at the Lima Conference. The significant achievements in Lima and the positive momentum have laid a solid foundation for the adoption of a new climate agreement in the Paris Climate Conference. Four measures are proposed for China to meet great challenges in addressing climate change beyond 2020, including early formulation and issuance of a climate change law, establishment of a greenhouse gas emission trading scheme, promotion of advanced climate technology investments, and further international engagement for climate change.

Responses of Hydrological Processes to Climate Change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st Century

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:45 +0200

In this study, discharge at the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of the Zhujiang River, was simulated and projected from 1961 to 2099 using the hydrological model HBV-D. The model uses precipitation and temperature data from CISRO/MK3–5, MPI/ECHAM5, and NCAR/CCSM3 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1). The results in water resources and flood frequency suggest that annual precipitation and annual runoff would increase after 2050 relative to the reference period of 1961–1990. In addition, increasing trends have been projected in area averaged monthly precipitation and runoff from May to October, while decreasing trends in those from December to February. More often and larger floods would occur in future. Potential increase in runoff during the low-flow season could ease the pressure of water demand until 2030, but the increase in runoff in the high-flow season, with more often and larger floods, more pressure on flood control after 2050 is expected. LIU, L.-L., T. JIANG, J.-G. XU, et al., 2012: Responses of hydrological processes to climate change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st century. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00084.

Comparison of China’s Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:38 +0200

Several representative studies on China’s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 are compared in scenario settings, methodologies, macro parameters, energy consumption and structure, carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity. Under the baseline scenario of the present policy framework, the future energy structure will be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually. China’s carbon emissions up to 2050 show a significant increase reaching between 11.9 Gt and 16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening a low carbon policy, the optimization of energy structure and the decline in carbon emission intensity will become more obvious within the comparative scenarios, which show a significant decrease in carbon emission until 2050 reaching only between 4.3 Gt and 9.5 Gt CO2 by then. Li, H., and Y. Qi, 2011: Comparison of China’s carbon emission scenarios in 2050. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 2 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00193.

Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:32 +0200

Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951–2004, the Γ distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during El Niño events than during La Niña events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found. Li, W., P. Zhai, and J. Cai, 2011: Research on the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00101.

Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in the Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:28 +0200

The progress and advances of the detection and attribution of changes in the hydrological cycle in the IPCC Assessment Reports of WGI and WGII from 1990 to 2007 are reviewed. Accomplishment and endorsed by the joint Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution in 2009, the Good Practice Guidance Paper (GPGP) for IPCC Lead Authors with its main content and characteristics are briefly introduced. Based on the review and the purpose of the GPGP, some characteristics on the detection and attribution of global warming and of changes in the hydrological cycle are presented. Liu, C., and J. Xia, 2011: Detection and attribution of observed changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00031.

Strategic deliberation on development of low-carbon energy system in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:22 +0200

In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, Chinas energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking, promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term, the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030, and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored.

Low Carbon Technology Development Roadmap for China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:15 +0200

It is essential that China follows a low carbon pathway, in which technology plays a key role in the future economy and social development. Based on the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China, this paper analyzes a technology development roadmap for China to achieve a low carbon scenario. The results show that there are plenty of potential and opportunities for China to move towards a low carbon society when given enhanced and accelerated applications and expansions of key low carbon technologies. Strong policy and measure supports from all sectors in China are needed to achieve this goal. Liu, Q., K. Jiang, and X. Hu, 2011: Low carbon technology development roadmap for China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00067.

Analysis of LULUCF Accounting Rules after 2012

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:09 +0200

Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities can allow Annex I parties in the Kyoto Protocol to decrease their carbon emission reduction pressure, and comparably expanding more emission space for their domestic industries and energy production. The loopholes resulted from LULUCF activity types and specific accounting methods are always argued among the different parties, particularly including harvested wood products, influences of force majeure, threshold values of the reference level, and gross-net or net-net accounting methods. For estimating uncertainties in accounting loopholes, and to avoid that developed countries take advantage of the accounting loopholes of LULUCF to decrease their emission reduction pressure, the LULUCF data submitted from the main developed countries in Annex I, including EU 27, Canada, Japan, and Russia, were collected. According to the analysis of these data, the loopholes influence the accounting results of LULUCF. The results show that the uncertainty of harvested wood products is excessive. The carbon sink produced by LULUCF activities will increase averagely by at least 30% without force majeure. The threshold values of the reference level of carbon sink should be set to a higher level. The net-net accounting method might be more suitable for LULUCF after 2012. Liu, S., Y. Li, Q. Gao, et al., 2011: Analysis of LULUCF accounting rules after 2012. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 2 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00178.

Poverty reduction within the framework of SDGs and Post-2015 Development Agenda

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:28:05 +0200

The eradication of poverty is one of the largest global challenges facing the world. This article examines poverty reduction goals within the framework of Post-2015 Development Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It also discusses the relationship between poverty reduction and sustainable development. Poverty reduction and sustainable development are inseparable and poverty reduction is the premise for sustainable development. Furthermore, several key bones of contention on the role of poverty reduction and sustainable development and implications of Post-2015 Development Agenda are also discussed. It concludes that to end poverty and inequality should continuously be given top priority for the Chinese government, because poverty reduction is Chinas soft power. Meanwhile, new ways of poverty alleviation should be explored and government should make great efforts to create a new partnership for poverty reduction and development.

The spatial distribution of commuting CO2 emissions and the influential factors: A case study in Xi'an, China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:27:58 +0200

As the transport sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, the effect of urbanization on transport CO2 emissions in developing cities has become a key issue under global climate change. Examining the case of Xi'an, this paper aims to explore the spatial distribution of commuting CO2 emissions and influencing factors in the new, urban industry zones and city centers considering Xi'ans transition from a monocentric to a polycentric city in the process of urbanization. Based on household survey data from 1501 respondents, there are obvious differences in commuting CO2 emissions between new industry zones and city centers: City centers feature lower household emissions of 2.86 kg CO2 per week, whereas new industry zones generally have higher household emissions of 3.20 kg CO2 per week. Contrary to previous research results, not all new industry zones have high levels of CO2 emissions, with the rapid development of various types of industries, even a minimum level of household emissions of 2.53 kg CO2 per week is possible. The uneven distribution of commuting CO2 emissions is not uniformly affected by spatial parameters such as job–housing balance, residential density, employment density, and land use diversity. Optimum combination of the spatial parameters and travel pattern along with corresponding transport infrastructure construction may be an appropriate path to reduction and control of emissions from commuting.

Trend of Antarctic Ozone Hole and Its Influencing Factors

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:27:48 +0200

Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related with EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still played a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar with those of the ozone hole, and inter-annual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980’s level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied. Bian, L.-G., Z. Lin, X.-D. Zheng, et al., 2012: Trend of Antarctic ozone hole and its influencing factors. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00068.

Progress in Research on Homogenization of Climate Data

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:27:43 +0200

The observation data from ground surface meteorological stations is an important basis on which climate change research is carried out, while the homogenization of the data is necessary for improving the quality and homogeneity of the time series. This paper reviews recent advances in the techniques of identifying and adjusting inhomogeneity in climate series. We briefly introduce the results of applying two commonly accepted and well-developed methods (RHtest and MASH) to surface climate observations such as temperature and wind speed in China. We then summarize current progress and problems in this field, and propose ideas for future studies in China. Along with collecting more detailed metadata, more research on homogenization technology should be done in the future. On the basis of comparing and evaluating advantages and disadvantages of different homogenization methods, the homogenized climate data series of the last hundred years should be rebuilt. Cao, L.-J., and Z.-W. Yan, 2012: Progress in research on homogenization of climate data. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00059.

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:27:38 +0200

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3, 839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling (CCLM) for 1961–2000, the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined, and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed. By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation (2011–2050) under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM, trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed. Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China, distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other, their spatial correlation coefficients are above 0.75. The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China. It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region, central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly, and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050. The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions, also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years. Cao, L.-G., J. Zhong, B.-D. Su, et al., 2013: Probability distribution and projected trends of daily precipitation in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.153.

The “Sino-India Monitor on INDCs Adequacy and Necessity” (SIMIAN) initiative

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:36 +0200

Internalising solar radiation management technological externalities: An ethical review on the design of economic instruments

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:32 +0200

Approaches to low carbon development in China and India

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:28 +0200

Low carbon development has gained policy prominence and is a concern of both environment and development policy globally and in China and India. This paper discusses the role of China and India as important global actors in light of development imperatives in the two countries. The article then looks at emerging approaches in the two countries related to financing, science, technology & innovation policy, and sub-national actions. The objective is to review efforts in China and India for contributing to learning experiences for other countries. The final section discussed the ways forward in terms of examining the role of China and India in terms of national policy strengthening as well as in global agenda setting. Implementation of sub-national initiatives in both countries faces challenges due to lack of adequate financing as well as knowledge such as greenhouse gas inventories and disaggregated resource and socio-economic assessments. Both India and China are making efforts in technology and innovation domains to set foot on a trajectory of low carbon development with varying degrees of success. In finance, both China and India have experimented with various instruments—the key difference is that China has taken the support of regulation more while India has leaned on to market based instruments. Both China and India are moving on an encouraging track regarding low carbon development with fairly well-designed domestic policies and consistent international engagement.

Atmospheric black carbon and its effects on cryosphere

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:24 +0200

Analysis on Impacts and Co-Abatement Effects of Implementing the Low Carbon Cement Standard

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:20 +0200

Based on the MAP-CGE model, this paper simulated the impacts on the output, energy consumption and pollutant emissions of different cement production processes when implementing a low carbon cement standard in China. It also calculated the impacts on the marginal abatement cost and equilibrium price of the cement industry, and analyzed the co-abatement effects of different pollutants. The results showed that implementing the low carbon cement standard will be beneficial in promoting an upgrading of cement production processes, and strengthening the energy conservation and emission reduction in the cement industry. If there is no change in the existing technology, the cement industry will reduce SO2 emissions by 1.17 kg and NOx emissions by 4.44 kg per ton of CO2 emission reduction. Implementing low carbon cement standard can also promote NOx abatement in the cement industry. However, the cement industry will bear the abatement costs, and their equilibrium price will increase slightly. Pang, J., Y.-C. Shi, X.-Z. Feng, et al., 2014: Analysis on impacts and co-abatement effects of implementing the low carbon cement standard. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.041.

Modeling black carbon and its potential radiative effects over the Tibetan Plateau

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:15 +0200

A regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with an aerosol–snow/ice feedback module was used to simulate the deposition of anthropogenic light-absorbing impurities in snow/ice and the potential radiative feedback of black carbon (BC) on temperature and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 1990–2009. Two experiments driven by ERA-interim reanalysis were performed, i.e., with and without aerosol–snow/ice feedback. Results indicated that the total deposition BC and organic matter (OM) in snow/ice in the monsoon season (May–September) were much more than non-monsoon season (the remainder of the year). The great BC and OM deposition were simulated along the margin of the TP in the non-monsoon season, and the higher deposition values also occurred in the western TP than the other regions during the monsoon period. BC-in-snow/ice decreased surface albedo and caused positive surface radiative forcing (SRF) (3.0–4.5 W m-2 ) over the western TP in the monsoon season. The maximum SRF (5–6 W m-2 ) simulated in the Himalayas and southeastern TP in the non-monsoon season. The surface temperature increased by 0.1–1.5 °C and snow water equivalent decreased by 5–25 mm over the TP, which showed similar spatial distributions with the variations of SRF in each season. This study provided a useful tool to investigate the mechanisms involved in the effect of aerosols on climate change and the water cycle in the cryospheric environment of the TP.

Representation of the Arctic Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:10 +0200

The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) simulated in the historical experiment of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated. Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment, as seen in the observations. These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter, but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models. The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, which is well reproduced by only a few models. Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation. In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions, the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best. Zuo, J.-Q., W.-J. Li, and H.-L. Ren, 2013: Representation of the Arctic Oscillation in the CMIP5 models. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.242.

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:22:05 +0200

The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

Chinas low-carbon investment pathway under the 2 °C scenario

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:59 +0200

The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2 °C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target, however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC) concerning the investment required to realize the 2 °C scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2 °C scenario could reach CN¥1.2 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN¥1.6 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in end-use sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN¥2.8 trillion by 2020, CN¥2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥2.9 trillion by 2050. These investments account for 2.5% of Chinas total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.

Nuclear Power Development for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:55 +0200

It is a consensus of international community to promote the development of low carbon economy in order to face the challenges of climate change. According to the features of nuclear energy, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission of nuclear energy chain and other energy chain are compared and analyzed, and the results indicate that the GHG emission of nuclear power chain is the least in all types of power generation. The status of nuclear power development and the potential benefit in GHGs emission reduction by developing nuclear power in China are also analyzed. Active nuclear power development is a smart choice for constructing low-carbon energy structure and for addressing global climate changes in China. Jiang, Z., 2011: Nuclear power development for greenhouse gas emission reduction in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00075.

Debates on the Causes of Global Warming

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:49 +0200

The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC (NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are reviewed. IPCC holds that today’s global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natural variability, which is emphasized by NIPCC. The surface temperature observations since the mid-20th century support the hypothesis of anthropogenic impact, but for the last one hundred years or so, natural forcings such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and thermohaline circulation variations also have had great influences on the Earth’s climate, especially on inter-decadal timescales. In addition, evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are closely associated with the solar activity over the past 1 thousand years. Over the past 10 thousand years, the North Atlantic cold events and solar activity are closely correlated. Nevertheless, the physical mechanisms of the solar-climate variability and interrelation are not well understood, yet. Notably, a prevailing view recently indicates that galactic cosmic rays may result in climatic cooling through modulating global low cloud cover. However, its process and mechanism need to be further investigated. Huang, J.-B., S.-W. Wang, Y. Luo, et al., 2012: Debates on the causes of global warming. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00038.

The Science of Global Warming

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:44 +0200

Policy Implications for Carbon Trading Market Establishment in China in the 12th Five-Year Period

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:39 +0200

Based on the survey of international emissions trading system (ETS) and quantitative analysis, policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study. Sectors sensitive to carbon prices, e.g., the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry, are given priority to be covered by the ETS. Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible. The cap of the ETS should be based on China’s carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning. Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed, including the national wide carbon account registration system and the legislation to national measuring, reporting, verification system building. Li, J.-F., Y.-X. Zhang, X. Wang, et al., 2012: Policy implications for carbon trading market establishment in China in the 12th Five-Year period. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00163.

Estimation of the Aircraft CO2 Emissions of China’s Civil Aviation during 1960–2009

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:33 +0200

Based on data collected by Chinese Civil Aviation Statistic Center, the annual CO2 emissions of aircrafts during 1960–2009 were calculated, and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the total CO2 emissions of aircrafts in China increased from 120×103 t in 1960 to 41.44×10s t in 2009. The CO2 emission intensity decreased from 2.9 kg (converted t km)−1 in 1960 to 0.96 kg (converted t km)−1 in 2009 at an average rate of 0.04 kg (converted t km)−1 per year. The average share of CO2 emissions of aircrafts on the total CO2 emissions from the sector of transportation, storage and post was 6.6% during 1980–2005, and 0.25% on the total emissions from fossil fuel combustion during 1971–2008. He, J.-C., and Y.-Q. Xu, 2012: Estimation of the aircraft CO2 emissions of China’s civil aviation during 1960–2009. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00099.

Century-long variability and trends in daily precipitation characteristics at three Finnish stations

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:26 +0200

Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908–2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south (Kaisaniemi), centre (Kajaani) and north (Sodankylä). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation (0 mm

Forecast of Consumption and Emission of HFC-134a Used in the Mobile Air-conditioner Sector in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:21 +0200

HFC-134a is the most important alternative to CFC-12 used in the mobile air-conditioner sector in China. The consumption of HFC-134a has been increasing rapidly in recent years. It becomes the most consumed HFC in the sector. Selecting 2005 as the base line year, future consumption and emission amounts of HFC-134a are estimated through an analysis of a combined scenario: 1) replacement by non-HFC-134a blends, 2) good practice in servicing, 3) technology promotion, and 4) government policies on control of HFC-134a emissions. The analysis shows that HFC-134a consumption and emissions will continue to increase in the next 10 years. The projected HFC-134a consumption will approach 20, 150 t and 34, 875 t in 2010 and 2015 respectively, while the estimated emission amounts will reach 16, 065 t and 30, 186 t (i.e., 21 Mt CO2 -eq and 39 Mt CO2 -eq emissions) correspondingly. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, the expected emission reductions in 2010 and 2015 will range between 6.7 Mt CO2 -eq and 13.0 Mt CO2 -eq. Hu, J., D. Wan, C. Li, et al., 2010: Forecasting of consumption and emission of HFC-134a used in mobile air-conditioner sector in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00020.

The Five-Year Plan: A new tool for energy saving and emissions reduction in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:17 +0200

China has achieved economic growth while great carbon emissions reduction in recent years. Amid Chinas effort to reduce emissions, the Five-Year Plans have guided and motivated local and foreign forces from the government, industries, and society to work together. This paper showed that a medium–high economic growth gate, industry structure adjustment, and energy structure adjustment, which are guaranteed under the Five-Year Plan, all contribute to energy saving in China. The economy entered a stable growing phase during the 12th Five-Year Plan, while the economic growth rate declined to 7.8% from 11.2% in the 11th Five-Year Plan. Simultaneously, the CO2 emissions growth rate declined from 8.32% (2009–2012 mean) to 1.82% (2012–2014 mean). Industrial structure adjustment canceled out nearly one-third of the CO2 emissions caused by economic growth. Under the 13th Five-Year Plan, China will continue its energy saving efforts on the green development path, with greener quotas, a stricter implementation process, and more key projects.

Analysis of Potential for HFC-23 Emission Reduction in China’s Fluorine Chemical Industry

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:12 +0200

China is one of the major producers of chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) in the world. A large amount of fluoroform (HFC-23) is emitted during the production of HCFC-22. Emission factors of HFC-23 were calculated in accordance with the monitoring reports of eleven HFC-23 clean development mechanism (CDM) projects in China and the HFC-23 emissions in 2000–2010 as well as that in 2011–2020 were estimated and projected, respectively. It is expected that, by the end of 2020, emissions of HFC-23 in China will be as much as 230 Mt CO2 -eq. If HCFC-22 producers voluntarily reduced HFC-23 emissions, it would contribute 3.2%–3.6% to the national CO2 emission reduction target for 2020. Lin, H., Y.-L. Cui, and L.-R. Yang, 2013: Analysis of potential for HFC-23 emission reduction in China’s fluorine chemical industry. Adv. Clim . Change Res ., 4(4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.260.

Effect of urban symbiosis development in China on GHG emissions reduction

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:07 +0200

This paper analyzes current urban symbiosis development and application in China, and then conducts a statistical analysis of the emissions reduction of CO2 and CH4 in relation to recovery of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastics from 2011 to 2014 using the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory calculation method provided by the IPCC. Results indicate that the cumulative recovery of renewable resources during Chinas main urban symbiosis development in 2011–2014 was 803.275 Mt, and the amount of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastic recovery was the largest, respectively accounting for 62.2%, 18.0%, and 8.2% of total recovery in 2014. In addition, the cumulative emissions reduction of GHGs in relation to recovery of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastics in 2011–2014 was 27.962 Mt CO2 -eq, 954.695 Mt CO2 -eq, and 22.502 Mt CO2 -eq, respectively, thereby totaling 1005.159 Mt CO2 -eq. Results show a remarkable GHG emissions reduction during 2011–2014.

Testing a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:21:03 +0200

The necessity of mainstreaming climate adaptation strategies or policies into natural resource management plans has been recognized by the UNFCCC. The IPCC AR5 report suggests a growing demand for research to provide information for a deeper and more useful understanding of climate adaptation options, and indicates a lack of effective methods to meet this increasing demand of policymakers. In this respect, a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) approach is presented in this paper to provide an effective means to mainstream wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development strategies, and thus to reduce climate vulnerability and to enhance rural community livelihood. The PIA approach includes a series of research activities required to assess climate impacts on wetland ecosystems, and to prioritize adaptation responses. A range of adaptation options that address key aspects of the wetland ecosystem resilience and concerns are evaluated against community based on sustainable development indicators. The PIA approach is able to identify desirable adaptation options which can then be implemented to improve wetland ecosystem health and to enhance regional sustainable development in a changing climate. For illustration purpose, the PIA was applied in a case study in Poyang Lake (PYL) region, a critical wetland and water ecosystem in central China with important international biodiversity linkages, and a locale for key policy experiments with ecosystem rehabilitation. The PIA was used to facilitate the integration of wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development actions with multi-stakeholders participation. In particular, the case shows how the PIA can be designed and implemented to select effective and practical climate change adaptation options to enhance ecosystem services management and to reduce resource use conflicts and rural poverty. Worked in partnership with multi-stakeholders and assisted with a multi-criteria decision making tool, the case identified alternative desirable adaptation measures which could be used to deal with climate risks. Several desirable adaptation options were implemented as pilot projects to showcase the effectiveness of these measures which resulted in benefits to the well-being and productivity of all people living in the region. It should be noted that while the case study evaluated adaptation policies or options to climate change, it was not completed in terms of discussing in detail all the key components of the PIA approach. However, the case study represents the state-of-the-arts research in climate change impact assessment and adaptation option evaluation, particularly in linking with wetland ecosystem sustainability. Findings of the case study have indicated that the potential effects of climate change on wetland sustainability are quite significant. The case has also identified adaptation measures considered by stakeholders to be potentially effective for reducing vulnerability of wetland ecosystems. It is clear that wetland ecosystem sustainability goals will be unachievable without mainstreaming adaptation measures into wetland conservation and health programs under a changing climate.

Changes of Dry-wet Climate in the Dry Season in Yunnan (1961–2007)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:57 +0200

Factor analysis was used to investigate the changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan during 1961–2007 based on observed data from 15 stations. Three common factors were extracted from the 9 climatic factors. The results showed that the dry-wet climate has evidently changed since the early 1960s. The general trends in the changes of dry-wet climate were described as slight decrease in humidity and gradual enhancement in drought intensity. The climate during 1960s–1980s was under weak-medium drought. But since early 1990s, dry conditions have markedly strengthened and continued due to uneven temporal distribution of rainfall and climate warming. Huang, Z., 2011: Changes of dry-wet climate in the dry season in Yunnan (1961–2007). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00049.

Benefits Comparison Analysis of Different Rice and Wheat Cropping Patterns to Adapt to Climate Change

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:52 +0200

Based on the input-output survey of farmers and experts in one of the Jiangsu GEF project areas, the Cost-Benefit analysis method and greenhouse gas estimation method recommended by IPCC were applied to evaluate and compare the social, economic and ecological benefits of artificial transplanting (ATR), mechanical transplanting (MTR) and direct seeding (DSR) rice under wheat-rice Double Late mode (late rice harvest and late wheat sowing). Results showed that the MTR and DSR rice achieved obvious social benefits. Farming measures resulted in excessive emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Through the use of ATR rice and wheat rotation mode it is possible to obtain most economic and ecological benefits. The Double Late mode of action had good application prospects, but the key to implementation was the timely exploitation of the recently increased availability of agricultural climate resources. The cropping pattern of combining the wheat-rice Double Late mode with the ATR was a better choice in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Huang, H.-P., S.-M. Ma, E.-D. Lin, et al., 2013: Benefits comparison analysis of different rice and wheat cropping patterns to adapt to climate change. Adv. Clim. Change Res ., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.182.

Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Estimations of Electrified Railways in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:45 +0200

Based on the annual production data collected by the Statistic Center of the Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China, we calculated the energy saving and direct emission reductions of CO2, soot, SO2, CO, NOx and Cn Hm of electrified railways, and analyzed their dynamic characteristics during the period of 1975–2007. The results show that during this period, the annual mean values of energy saving is 1.23×106 tce, and direct emission reduction of CO2, soot, SO2, CO, NOx and Cn Hm are 4.267×106 t, 20.5×103 t, 3.0×103 t, 9.6×103 t, 67.9×103 t, and 6.9×103 t per year, respectively. The annual average increasing rates of energy saving is 139×103 tce, and direct emission reduction of CO2, soot, SO2, CO, NOx and Cn Hm are 483×103 t, 2.3×103 t, 0.34×103 t, 1.1×103 t, 7.7×103 t and 0.78×103 t per year, respectively. The electrified railways have played an important role in decreasing the energy consumption and air pollutant emissions of China’s railway system. The results of this study could provide some reference knowledge for future reductions of energy consumption and waste gas emission in China’s railway transportation. He, J., and Y. Xu, 2011: Energy saving and emission reduction estimations of electrified railways in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (4), doi:10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00211.

Estimation of CO2 Emissions of Locomotives in China (1975–2005)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:40 +0200

Based on annual statistical data collected by the Chinese Railway Statistic Center, the CO2 emissions of locomotives during 1975–2005 were calculated and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the CO2 emissions of steam locomotives decreased while that of diesel locomotives increased with time, due to the continuous shift from steam to diesel and electric locomotives. The total CO2 emissions of steam and diesel locomotives in China decreased from 42.23 Mt in 1975 to 16.40 Mt in 2005. The emission intensity of CO2 from the two kinds of locomotives decreased at an average rate of 2.4 g (converted t km)- 1 per year. The percentage of the CO2 emissions of locomotives to the total CO2 emissions in the sector of transportation, storage and post in China also decreased persistently from 1980 to 2005. He, J., and Y. Li, 2010: Estimation of CO2 emissions of locomotives in China (1975–2005). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00020.

Coping with climate change and Chinas wind energy sustainable development

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:35 +0200

Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of todays climate change. To address this problem, the world is in an era of new round energy transformation, and the existing energy structure is being reformed. In this paper, according to the Chinese governments action plan for coping with climate change, the Chinas wind energy sustainable development goals and development route are discussed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Wind energy is currently a kind of important renewable energy with matured technology which can be scale-up developed and put into commercial application, and in this transformation, wind energy will play a key role with other non-fossil energy sources. The development and utilization of wind energy is a systematic project, which needs to be solved from the aspects of policy, technology and management. At present, China is in the stage of transferring from “large wind power country” to “strong wind power country”, opportunities and challenges coexist, and the advantages of Chinas socialist system could be fully used, which can concentrate power to do big things and make contribution in the process of realizing global energy transformation.

Global low-carbon transition and Chinas response strategies

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:31 +0200

The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of worlds economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths, establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

An analysis of Chinas CO2 emission peaking target and pathways

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:28 +0200

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for Chinas resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that Chinas potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and Chinas total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%–1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%–8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in Chinas total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDP. To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon development transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Chinas target for peaking CO2 emissions

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:24 +0200

Objectives and strategies for energy revolution in the context of tackling climate change

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:20 +0200

Global climate change mitigation and CO2 emission reduction have promoted the revolutionary transformation in energy system. The core content of energy system revolutionary transformation is to replace the high-carbon energy system dominated by fossil energy with low-carbon energy system dominated by new and renewable energy and finally realize the near-zero emission of CO2 . The new energy system transformation has also led to a reform in global economic and social development patterns. Developing low-carbon economy becomes the fundamental strategy of sustainable development under climate risk management and the only solution to getting on the road from industrial civilization to ecological civilization. China intends to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030. Guided by the targets, China directs its economy development to a low-carbon pattern. Therefore, new and renewable power capacity need to reach 1300 GW, and the electricity generated should be 4 times of that in 2013 with a continuous increase rate of 6%–8% around 2030. The pace of energy substitution need to be accelerated and efficient, safe, clean, and low-carbon energy supply and consumption systems should be established besides strengthened energy conservation and improved energy efficient. Therefore, reform need be deepened, favorable policy system and market mechanism for energy revolution and low-carbon development need be established, energy pricing mechanism should be reformed, and national carbon market should be formed to provide a favorable policy and market environment for low-carbon technology innovation and industry development.

Sector Mitigation Policies and Methods in China: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable Mechanisms

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:16 +0200

Based on a number of sector mitigation policies for domestic systems, this paper demonstrates how measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mechanisms are applied at the sector level in China. At the same time, these mitigation policies and methods are diverse in terms of the MRV approach and their mitigation effects. These characters should be regulated as part of case foundation in the international construction of MRV. Gu, A., F. Teng, and Y. Wang, 2011: Sector mitigation policies and methods in China: Measurable, reportable, and verifiable mechanisms. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00115.

Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:09 +0200

The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979–2014 and its links to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Niño (La Niña) events can induce the shrinking (expansion) of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño (La Niña) mainly leads to shrinking (expansion) of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion (shrinking) of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

Climatology and interannual variability of the annual mean Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:20:01 +0200

Using 26 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), climatology and the interannual variability of the annual mean Hadley circulation are evaluated. The results show that most of 26 models perform well in simulating the spatial structure of the climatology of the annual mean Hadley circulation, but the results derived from these models are generally weaker than that derived from the reanalysis dataset. Eighteen models can properly simulate well the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode of the annual mean Hadley circulation variability. Two models can only simulate asymmetric mode or symmetric mode and the other two models simulate reversed sequences of asymmetric mode and symmetric mode. The possible reason why some models cannot properly simulate the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode is that these models do not properly simulate the structure of zonal mean sea surface temperature (SST). Especially, not properly simulating variances of symmetric and asymmetric components of the SSTA will lead to reversed sequence of symmetric mode and asymmetric mode. And not properly simulated either symmetric or asymmetric component of the SSTA will lead to inability in simulating symmetric mode or asymmetric mode. On the other hand, some models properly simulate the asymmetric mode and symmetric mode, but do not properly simulate the responses to SST change. These models can not reflect the air sea coupling processes in associated with the Hadley circulation, therefore they should be taken more care when classify the models into groups.

Basic Features of Climate Change in North China during 1961–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:50 +0200

The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961–2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations’ data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36°C per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season (May to September). During 1961–2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s. Guo, W.-L., H.-B. Shi, J.-J. Ma, et al., 2013: Basic features of climate change in North China during 1961–2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.073.

Earth observation big data for climate change research

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:42 +0200

Earth observation technology has provided highly useful information in global climate change research over the past few decades and greatly promoted its development, especially through providing biological, physical, and chemical parameters on a global scale. Earth observation data has the 4V features (volume, variety, veracity, and velocity) of big data that are suitable for climate change research. Moreover, the large amount of data available from scientific satellites plays an important role. This study reviews the advances of climate change studies based on Earth observation big data and provides examples of case studies that utilize Earth observation big data in climate change research, such as synchronous satellite–aerial–ground observation experiments, which provide extremely large and abundant datasets, Earth observational sensitive factors (e.g., glaciers, lakes, vegetation, radiation, and urbanization), and global environmental change information and simulation systems. With the era of global environment change dawning, Earth observation big data will underpin the Future Earth program with a huge volume of various types of data and will play an important role in academia and decisionmaking. Inevitably, Earth observation big data will encounter opportunities and challenges brought about by global climate change.

Governing Climate Change Adaptation in the EU and China: An Analysis of Formal Institutions

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:36 +0200

Both the European Union (EU) and China are culturally, economically, climatologically and environmentally diverse polities. The EU is a multi-state grouping of economically developed democratic countries, while China is a unitary sovereign state and a developing economy with a strong government bureaucracy. Our hypothesis is that given their diverse political systems, the EU and China would develop different kinds of systems for the governance of adaptation to climate change. We test this hypothesis through a comparative analysis of policy documents from the two study areas, in which we examine framework policies, programmatic actions and specific actions that have been adopted to date in order to address climate change, with a specific focus on the water sector. We find that climate change adaptation began to be addressed through formal policy on a similar timeline in the two regions. The EU and China are also similar in that they use framework laws and existing sectoral policy, such as for the water sector. We find that the EU has primarily relied on integration of climate change adaptation concerns through legal instruments which set a framework for implementation of adaptation policy. In China, specific actions to be incorporated in socio-economic development plans under the existing legislation on adaptation have been the main mode for integrating adaptation into sectoral actions, though the future trend may be to develop more regulations. Gemmer, M., A. Wilkes, and L. M. Vaucel, 2011: Governing climate change adaptation in the EU and China: An analysis of formal institutions. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00001.

Chinas response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:32 +0200

The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, Chinas top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects Chinas commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. Chinas constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win–win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability, a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice, and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as Chinas guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change in Macao During the Period 1901–2007

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:25 +0200

Change related to climate in Macao was studied on the basis of daily temperature observations over the period 1901–2007. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature in Macao as a whole rose with a warming rate of about 0.066 °C per 10 years in the recent 107 years. The most evident warming occurred in spring and winter. The interdecadal variations of the seasonal mean temperature in summer and winter appeared as a series of waves with a time scale of about 30 years and 60 years, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased about twice as fast as the annual mean maximum temperature, resulting in a broad decline in the annual mean diurnal range. The interdecadal variations of annual mean maximum temperature are obviously different from those of annual mean minimum temperature. It appears that the increase in the annual mean maximum temperature in the recent 20 years may be part of slow climate fluctuations with a periodicity of about 60 years, whereas that in the annual mean minimum temperature appears to be the continuation of a long-term warming trend. Fong, S., C .Wu, A. Wang, et al., 2010: Analysis of surface air temperature change in Macao during the period 1901–2007. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00084.

Trends in Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China (1961–2007)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:18 +0200

Monthly temperature and precipitation time-series for the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed in order to identify changes in climate extremes. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2007 of 192 meteorological stations are used. Two temperature indicators (monthly mean and monthly maximum mean) and three precipitation indicators (monthly total, monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation, and monthly dry days) are analyzed. Tendencies in all five indicators can be observed. Many stations show significant positive trends (above the 90% confidence level) for monthly mean temperatures and monthly maximum mean temperatures. For all months, a significant increase in temperature from 1961 to 2007 can be observed in the entire basin with the coastal area in particular. Positive trends of precipitation extremes can be observed from January to March. Negative trends are detected from September to November. The number of dry days in October increased significantly at 40% of all meteorological stations. Stations with changes of monthly precipitation extremes are scattered over the Zhujiang River Basin. An aggregation of heat waves and droughts can be detected which is accompanied by significant increases of temperature extremes and the negative tendencies in precipitation extremes. The detection of tendencies in climate extremes essentially relies on a good data quality and high station density. Fischer, T., M. Gemmer, L. Liu, et al., 2010: Trends in monthly temperature and precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China (1961–2007). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00063.

Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impacts on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:19:12 +0200

Business as Usual (BaU) scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these definitions is how to set the starting point of BaU projections, that is the so called base year. Some international institutions use current policy scenarios to project a BaU trajectory of developing countries. Such definition will lead to an underestimation of BaU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimation of mitigation efforts. This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear base year as definition of BaU. Such a definition will set an objective benchmark to assess mitigation efforts of developing countries. Teng, F., and S.-Q. Xu, 2012: Definition of Business as Usual and its impacts on assessment of mitigation efforts. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00212.

Estimating the Macroeconomic Costs of CO2 Emission Reduction in China Based on Multi-objective Programming

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:18:51 +0200

This paper estimates the macroeconomic costs of CO2 emission reduction in China employing the input-output analysis with the multi-objective programming approach. The results show that the effect of reducing CO2 emissions on China’s economy is significant. Under the present conditions, the estimated macroeconomic costs of CO2 emission reduction in 2010 for China are approximately 3, 100–4, 024 RMB t - 1 . The stronger the abatement actions, the higher the macroeconomic costs of per unit emission reduction would be. Excavation industry, oil industry, chemical industry, and metal smelting industry have high potential to abate their CO2 emissions. Fan, Y., X. Zhang, and L. Zhu, 2010: Estimating the macroeconomic costs of CO2 emission reduction in China based on multi-objective programming. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00027.

Analysis of Global CCS Technology, Regulations and Its Potential for Emission Reduction with Focus on China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:18:46 +0200

This paper introduces the development of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology, the progress in CCS demonstration projects, and regulations and policies related to CCS. Barriers and limitations for the large-scale deployment of CCS are discussed. CCS and different technological solutions for emission reduction (e.g., energy conservation and renewable energy) are compared. The analysis shows that China should carefully evaluate the negative impacts of CCS deployment and needs to enhance the research and development input in CCS in order to master core technologies of CCS systems. Furthermore, CCS incentives should depend on actual CCS development. Based on the current situation, China may need to focus on retrofitting existing thermal power plants with CCS technology, so CCS can be promoted for future large-scale application. Fan, Y., L. Zhu, and X. Zhang, 2011: Analysis of global CCS technology, regulations and its potential for emission reduction with focus on China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00057.

A climatic environmental performance assessment method for ecological city construction: Application to Beijing Yanqi Lake

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:18:30 +0200

In contrast to the input perspective for evaluating planning metrics, this research takes the climatic environmental output effects as the starting point for assessing ecological city construction. Based on approaches such as observation data analysis, meteorological model simulation, and remote sensing, a set of climatic environmental performance assessment methods is developed and established. These methods mainly focus on surface ventilation assessment and urban thermal environment assessment. With the Yanqi Lake ecological development demonstration area located in Huairou district, Beijing as an example, the assessment of the local climatic environment before and after the construction are conducted, and relevant policy suggestions for urban planning and construction are presented. The results show that after development, the ventilation capacity will decrease overall and the ventilation potential index will decrease from 0.53 to 0.44. While this is not a large reduction, and is still at a favorable level, the ventilation potential in some local areas will markedly decrease. Furthermore, the thermal environment will become poorer to some extent, the urban heat island (UHI) area and intensity will increase compared with the current situation, continuous heat islands may occur in local areas, the UHI potential index of the core area will rise from 0.0878 to 0.1217 (still a favorable level). Therefore, urban surfaces should be carefully developed and arranged during planning. It is suggested that the negative impacts of large areas of urban construction on the local climatic environment in the Yanqi Lake could be mitigated by 1) strengthening the airflow by introducing fresh, cold, northwesterly air via constructed ventilation corridors, 2) increasing the number of ecological cold sources, particularly for water bodies and green belts to prevent the UHI in the southern region of Yanqi Lake from becoming linked with each other, and 3) considering a pre-program before sub-domain and building planning to obtain optimum building locations. Different construction standards should be developed for different ventilation potential and UHI intensity levels. For strong heat island areas, land areas should be reserved to serve as cold sources.

Hydrodynamic analysis of a Semisubmersible Floating Wind Turbine. Numerical validation of a second order coupled analysis

Borja Servan Camas — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:17:26 +0200

A finite element method for the solution of the up-to-second-order wave diffraction-radiation problem in the time-domain is proposed. The solver has been validated against experimental data available for the HiPRWind semisubmersible platform (designed for floating wind turbines). To perform the validation, the wave diffraction-radiation solver is coupled to a body dynamics and mooring solvers in the time-domain. The HiPRWind movements and mooring forces have been compared for a large number of test cases, including decay tests, bichromatic, and irregular waves. Good agreement has been found for both, body movements and mooring forces.

Chinas low-carbon transition for addressing climate change

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:13:10 +0200

This study discusses high-carbon characteristics, the unsustainability of Chinas development, and the fact that China needs to transform its development mode. Chinas low-carbon transition must include industry structure adjustment, energy saving and efficiency increases, energy structure improvement, carbon sink development, adaptation capability, and low-carbon pilot schemes. Low-carbon urbanization is a key measure in Chinas low-carbon transition. Chinas urbanization faces high-carbon risks. Thus, this study presents a roadmap for transforming urbanization into a low-carbon one. The transition to low-carbon urbanization is a common trend in the developing world. There is a lot of room for international cooperation.

Chinas goal to increase non-fossil energy sources

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:13:06 +0200

Essence and resolution of international climate negotiation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:13:02 +0200

In essence, international climate negotiation is a serious and responsible global effort, despite various conflicts, to establish a rational international climate regime. In essence, tackling climate changes is leading the globe to actualize sustainable development of all humankind along the low-carbon, green, and cyclic-development path. Thus, climate negotiation should be driving all parties to achieve a global climate regime arrangement in a constructive way. Therefore, this paper suggests focusing on the following three major recommendations: early developed countries take the lead in committing positively to absolute emission reduction, the developing countries contribute according to their abilities and stages of development, the developed countries perform real deeds using their funds and technology. Based on substantial breakthrough that would be made, progressive supplement and improvement could be accomplished through the mechanism of review and adjustment under the Convention framework. This path represents a combination of bottom-up and top-down. The ultimate way out of international climate negotiation lies in win-win cooperation. Profound reasons for China to participate proactively and practically in international climate negotiation, based on its actual conditions, are the internal wants and needs of its scientific and sustainable development, as well as the undertaking of international responsibilities as a responsible, large, developing country.

Chinese Public’s Willingness to Pay for CO2 Emissions Reductions: A Case Study from Four Provinces/Cities

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:56 +0200

Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) was used to investigate the Chinese public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for a policy to reduce CO2 emissions. Face to face interviews were conducted to collect 1, 653 valid questionnaires from Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong province, and Fujian province. A model was constructed to understand the factors that influence WTP. The results indicate that the Chinese public is willing to pay CN¥201.86 annually to support the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Participants from Beijing show the highest WTP, followed by participants from Fujian and Shandong, while those from Shanghai report the lowest WTP. The findings reveal that participants with higher income, higher satisfaction with their current life, and awareness of climate issues are willing to pay more for CO2 emissions reductions. In addition, those who are young, male and members of the Communist Party also indicate a higher WTP. The results imply that translating the public’s willingness to protect climate into actions should be taken into account in China’s low carbon policy. There is a need to consider the difference in degree of willingness, among different social groups, to pay for emissions reductions if the market-based mechanisms such as carbon tax were designed to facilitate emissions reductions. Duan, H.-X., Lü, Y.-L., Li, Y., 2014. Chinese public’s willingness to pay for CO2 emissions reductions: A case study from four provinces/cities. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.100.

An overview of black carbon deposition and its radiative forcing over the Arctic

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:49 +0200

This paper gives an overview of the current understanding of the observations of black carbon (BC) in snow and ice, and the estimates of BC deposition and its radiative forcing over the Arctic. Both of the observations and model results show that, in spring, the average BC concentration and the resulting radiative forcing in Russian Arctic > Canadian and Alaskan Arctic > Arctic Ocean and Greenland. The observed BC concentration presented a significant decrease trend from the Arctic coastal regions to the center of Arctic Ocean. In summer, due to the combined effects of BC accumulation and enlarged snow grain size, the averaged radiative forcing per unit area over the Arctic Ocean is larger than that over each sector of the Arctic in spring. However, because summer sea ice is always covered by a large fraction of melt ponds, the role of BC in sea ice albedo evolution during this period is secondary. Multi-model mean results indicate that the annual mean radiative forcing from all sources of BC in snow and ice over the Arctic was ∼0.17 W m−2 . Wet deposition is the dominant removal mechanism in the Arctic, which accounts for more than 90% of the total deposition. In the last part, we discuss the uncertainties in present modeling studies, and suggest potential approaches to reduce the uncertainties.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Heat Waves in China from 1961 to 2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:41 +0200

Daily maximum temperatures from 753 stations across China and the heat wave indicators are used to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of heat wave intensity, frequency and heat wave days in China over the period of 1961–2010. The results show that high frequency, long duration and strong intensity of heat waves occurred in the Jianghuai area, Jiangnan area, and eastern Sichuan Basin. The highest frequency and the longest duration are located in northern Jiangxi and northern Zhejiang provinces, and the highest intensity in northern Zhejiang province is even more prominent. The frequency, heat wave days and intensity showed a general increasing trend in the past 50 years, while decadal characteristics are also observed with a decreasing trend from the 1960s to the early 1980s and increasing trend from the end of the 1980s to 2010. The regional variations demonstrate a significant increasing trend in the northern and western parts of North China, central-northern part of Northwest China, the central part of South China, the Yangtze River Delta and the southern Sichuan Basin, with an obvious decreasing trend in the southern Huanghuai area, northern Jianghuai area and Hanjiang River Basin. Ye, D.-X., Yin, J.-F., Chen, Z.-H., et al., 2014. Spatial and temporal variations of heat waves in China from 1961 to 2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.066.

Public Perceptions of Cryosphere Change and the Selection of Adaptation Measures in the Ürümqi River Basin

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:34 +0200

This study focuses on the characters of public perceptions on climate and cryosphere change, which are based on a questionnaire survey in the Ürümqi River Basin. In comparison with scientific observation results of climate and cryosphere change, this paper analyzes the possible impact of the change on water resources and agriculture production in the area. Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes confirm the main objective facts. For the selection of adaptation measures addressing the shortage of water resource, the results are as follows: most people preferred to choose the measures like “policy change” and “basic facility construction” which are mostly implemented by the government and the policy-making department, some people showed more preference to the measures of avoiding unfavorable natural environment, such as finding job in or migrating to other places. The urgency of personal participation in the adaptation measures is still inadequate. Some adaptation measures should be implemented in line with local conditions and require the organic combination of “resource-development” with “water-saving”. Deng, M., H. Zhang, W. Mao, et al., 2011: Public perceptions of cryosphere change and the selection of adaptation measures in the Ürümqi River Basin. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00149.

Method for Calculating CO2 Emissions from the Power Sector at the Provincial Level in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:27 +0200

Based on the detailed origins of each province’s electricity consumption, a new method for calculating CO2 emissions from the power sector at the provincial level in China is proposed. With this so-called consumer responsibility method, the emissions embodied in imported electricity are calculated with source-specific emission factors. Using the new method, we estimate CO2 emissions in 2005 and 2010. Compared with those derived from the producer responsibility method, the power exporters’ emissions decreased sharply. The emissions from the power sector in Inner Mongolia, the largest power exporter of China, decreased by 109 Mt in 2010. The value is equivalent to those from Shaanxi’s power production and Canada’s power and heat production. In contrast, the importers’ emissions increased substantially. The emissions from the power sector in Hebei, the largest power importer of China, increased by 74 Mt. Emissions of Beijing, increased by 60 Mt (320%), in 2010. Thus, we suggest that the Chinese government should take the emissions, as calculated from the consumption perspective, into account when formulating and assessing local CO2 emission reduction targets. Ma, C.-M., Ge, Q.-S., 2014. Method for calculating CO2 emissions from the power sector at the provincial level in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.092.

Changes in Lake Ice Cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in Poland (1971–2007)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:21 +0200

On the basis of data from the period 1971–2007, and by applying trend analysis, a study on formation, disappearance and duration of lake ice cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland was carried out. The results show decreasing trends in the maximum thickness of winter lake ice cover and in duration of lake ice phenomena, while air temperature recorded at the same period at the foot of the Tatra Mountains shows increasing trend. There are strong relationships between the course of lake ice phenomena and air temperature. Choiński, A., L. Kolendowicz, J. Pociask-Karteczka, et al., 2010: Changes in lake ice cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in Poland (1971–2007). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00071.

Moving past the rhetoric: Policy considerations that can make Sino-African relations to improve Africas climate change resilience and the attainment of the sustainable development goals

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:16 +0200

Climate change is a threat to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in sub-Saharan Africa as its impacts can lead to increased incidences of poverty and inequality which can subsequently lead to a 12% decline in the Human Development Index (HDI) for sub-Saharan Africa. Emerging countries such as China have the potential to support Africa to achieve the SDGs by pioneering South–South Climate Finance (SSCF) modalities. In order to increase knowledge on climate informed development and the role of China in global climate governance, the paper examined various research articles, case studies, policy briefs and project reports. Sino-African aid, investments and trade were noted as essential in mitigating Africas climate change vulnerabilities which induce poverty traps and inequality. Some African countries were noted to have a comparative advantage in environmental standards over China but lacked the initiative to use this comparative advantage to enhance the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and assist China to have a sustainable growth trajectory. The paper concludes that SSCF modalities can enhance climate risk management in Africa if they focus on improving financial inclusion and improving climate finance flows towards climate change adaptation activities in Africa. Additionally, to increase the effectiveness and impact of Chinese climate finance support to Africa, African policymakers should not allow political and market forces to decide how climate related support from China should be allocated as decisions based on political and market forces could potentially promote an inequitable distribution of funds and ignore the most vulnerable countries and regions.

Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Large River Basins in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:09 +0200

A new available dataset of daily observational precipitation is used to study the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events for 1956–2008 in the ten large river basins of China. The maximum daily rainfall and heavy precipitation days (≥ 50 mm d–1 ) are analyzed for the basins of the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River, Northwest China Rivers, Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast China Rivers, and Southwest China Rivers. The results indicate that the maximum daily rainfall was increasing in southern river basins, while it was decreasing in northern river basins, which leads to no discernible increasing or decreasing trend in the maximum daily rainfall of whole China, especially after 2001. The national averaged heavy precipitation days shows an insignificant increase. However, a rise in heavy precipitation days of southern river basins and a decline of northern river basins are observed. Chen, Y., X. Chen, and G. Ren, 2011: Variation of extreme precipitation over large river basins in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00108.

Urbanization effect on precipitation over the Pearl River Delta based on CMORPH data

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:12:01 +0200

Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing (CMORPH) at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) metropolitan regions of China. CMORPH data well estimates the precipitation features over the PRD. Compared to the surrounding rural areas, the PRD urban areas experience fewer and shorter precipitation events with a lower precipitation frequency (ratio of rainy hours, about 3 days per year less), however, short-duration heavy rain events play a more significant role over the PRD urban areas. Afternoon precipitation is much more pronounced over the PRD urban areas than the surrounding rural areas, which is probably because of the increase in short-duration heavy rain over urban areas.

Shares Differences of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculated with GTP and GWP for Major Countries

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:11:53 +0200

The global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP) are two common metrics to calculate the CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases (GHGs). If the country’s GHG emissions are calculated with GTP instead of GWP, the shares of the EU, USA, Japan, Canada and South Africa rise in the period 1990–2005, and those of Brazil, Australia, China, India, Mexico and Russia decrease. From 2015 to 2030, the projected shares of the EU, USA, Japan and China will increase, but those of Russia, Canada, Australia, India, Mexico and Brazil will decrease. The reduced shares of Brazil and Australia and increased share of the EU might be one of the important reasons that Brazil and Australia suggested to adopt GTP instead of GWP as early as possible, but the EU opposed it. Wang, C.-K., X.-Z. Luo, and H. Zhang, 2013: Shares differences of greenhouse gas emissions calculated with GTP and GWP for major countries. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.127.

Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:11:37 +0200

China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

Biodiversity and Climate Change Adaptation in Australia: Strategy and Research Developments

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:11:30 +0200

Many countries are developing national strategies and action plans aimed at minimising the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview not only of strategies and plans that have been developed in Australia, but also of research that has been carried out in Australia by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Adaptation Flagship to assist the development of future strategies and plans. Major points are summarised from key policy documents such as the National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan 2004–2007, and Australia’s Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010–2030, as well as the 2009 report on “Australia’s Biodiversity and Climate Change”. Within the first three years of its existence, the Natural Ecosystems theme in CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship has carried out studies analysing impacts and identifying potential adaptations across the whole of Australia’s vast terrestrial and marine environments. Techniques used in these studies could be applied easily in other countries and could assist the development of more effective national strategies and adaptation action plans for the conservation of biodiversity under climate change. Booth, T. H., 2012: Biodiversity and climate change adaptation in Australia: Strategy and research developments. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00012.