Scipedia: Documents published in 2017

Toward more accurate endoscopic diagnosis of colorectal neoplasm: Balancing between innovation and applicability

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:30 +0200

Optimizing bowel preparation for colonoscopy: Timing is the key

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:26 +0200

Thalidomide induces complete remission of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:20 +0200

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent human cancers in the world, but its prognosis is extremely poor. HCC is considered a hypervascular tumor. Thalidomide, which has been known to inhibit growth factor-induced neovascularization, is a convenient alternative to target therapy such as sorafenib. We report a 65-year-old male patient with alcoholic liver cirrhosis that was diagnosed having multiple HCCs during surveillance. The patient was assessed as inoperable and unsuited for transhepatic arterial chemoembolization or systemic chemotherapy. After discussing the therapeutic alternatives, he decided to receive low-dose thalidomide (100 mg daily) therapy. Fortunately, follow-up liver biochemical tests, serum α-fetoprotein level, and dynamic computed tomography showed complete remission of the HCCs 4.5 months after thalidomide treatment and this was documented for more than 22 months without evidence of tumor recurrence.

Toward personalized therapy of chronic hepatitis B

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:16 +0200

Intestinal ileus and pneumatosis intestinalis as the major manifestations of tuberculous peritonitis: A diagnostic challenge

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:11 +0200

Tuberculous peritonitis (TBP) is a continuing problem in populations with high prevalence of tuberculosis and is difficult to diagnose early. Here, we report a case of confirmed TBP that presented as intestinal ileus and pneumatosis intestinalis. The 79-year-old woman had a history of atrial fibrillation, chronic ischemic heart disease, and chronic renal failure (chronic kidney disease, stage V). She complained of abdominal fullness and pain for 1 week prior to hospitalization. A computed tomography (CT) scan revealed pneumatosis intestinalis. Laparoscopic surgery was performed, and multiple whitish nodules covering the peritoneum were discovered. Biopsy results were consistent with caseating granulomatous inflammation. A modified anti-tuberculosis regimen (isoniazid, 300 mg daily, rifampicin 600 mg daily, ethambutol 800 mg three times per week, and pyrazinamide 1200 mg three times per week) was initiated, stabilizing the condition of the patient. The total duration of anti-tuberculosis therapy was 12 months, with patient condition gradually improving to normal. The elderly, uremic patients recovered fully after the modified anti-tuberculosis regimen for 12 months. For clinical practice, we developed a decision-making algorithm for patients suspecting TBP.

Endoscopically diagnosed cavernous hemangioma in the deep small intestine: A case report

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:48:05 +0200

We report a 27-year-old female with chronic iron deficiency anemia and unexplained fecal occult blood. Abdominal ultrasonography and computed tomography disclosed a possible endoluminal lesion in the small intestine. Single-balloon enteroscopy detected the target lesion in the proximal ileum. The lesion was a 2.5-cm submucosal tumor that was purple-red, soft, had a narrow base, and exhibited superficial telangiectasia. After endoscopic marking, the tumor was resected with minimally invasive laparoscopy. It was histologically confirmed as a cavernous hemangioma. In this report, we discuss the endoscopic characteristics, surgical and pathological assessment, and management strategy of hemangiomas in the small intestine.

Influence of replacing percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy for nasogastric tube feeding on gastroesophageal reflux disease with erosive esophagitis

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:58 +0200

The occurrence rate and severity of gastroesophageal reflux disease with erosive esophagitis (EE) in patients after converting nasogastric tube (NGT) feeding to percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) are not well-known. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of PEG placement on the occurrence and severity of EE in patients with long-term PEG feeding. This retrospective study included patients with NGT feeding who were converted to PEG feeding and received pre- and post-PEG endoscopy between January 2000 and June 2013. Factors predictive of the occurrence of EE after PEG were analyzed. One-hundred and twenty patients with NGT feeding were converted to PEG, and 47 patients were included. Before PEG, 21 (44.7%) NGT-feeding patients had EE. The mean follow-up time was 45.7 months (range, 6–147 months). Erosive esophagitis occurred in nine (19.1%) patients after PEG. The occurrence rate (p

Single-balloon enteroscopy-assisted nasojejunal tube placement

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:53 +0200

Expertise in enteral nutrition is an important aspect of the skill set of clinical gastroenterologists. Feeding tubes can be placed by bedside, endoscopic, fluoroscopic, and surgical methods. Nasojejunal tube placement in patients with variations in anatomy or with a history of abdominal surgery was previously a difficult problem. Today, however, as a result of developments in enteroscopy, gastroenterologists can obtain a better understanding of the small intestine. This paper reports a new technique in nasojejunal tube insertion. The feeding tube was placed in the intestine using a guide wire which accessed the jejunum with the help of single-balloon enteroscopy. Using this new skill, the placement of an enteral tube is more comfortable and safer for patients.

Accuracy of immunochemical fecal occult blood test for detecting colorectal neoplasms in individuals undergoing health check-ups

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:48 +0200

In Taiwan, the prevalence of colorectal cancer has been increasing in recent decades. As a result, the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) has been advocated and widely used for colorectal cancer screening in areas with limited colonoscopy capacity. The goal of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of a single immunochemical FOBT (I-FOBT) and correlate it with the results of colonoscopy for detecting colorectal neoplasia in the asymptomatic Taiwanese population. Data were collected from the results of health examinations conducted on asymptomatic adults older than 40 years and who simultaneously underwent one-time I-FOBT and colonoscopy examinations between January 01, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The sensitivity and specificity of the I-FOBT were calculated in correlation to age, size, and pathologic result. A total of 6096 patients were analyzed, including 3418 men and 2678 women, aged 40–87 years. I-FOBT result was positive in 229 patients (3.8%), the sensitivity of detection of total colorectal neoplasia and advanced neoplasia were 6.98% and 22.1%, respectively. A total of 13 participants were found to have invasive cancer in this study, and the sensitivity and specificity of the I-FOBT in this group were 69.2% and 96.4%, respectively. Besides, the positive rate of I-FOBT increased with age, with 40–49 years (2.89%), 50–75 years (4.21%), and >75 years (5.68%). In addition, the sensitivity for detecting total neoplasia and advanced neoplasia was similar in patients ≥50 years and ≥40 years of age. The I-FOBT has better sensitivity for detecting invasive cancer and advanced neoplasia than for detecting nonadvanced neoplasia. Repeated I-FOBT examinations with good adherence to the screening program may improve the detection rate and sensitivity of the I-FOBT.

Impact of interleukin-28B polymorphism on HCV-1 infected patients treated with response-guided therapy

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:42 +0200

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of interleukin-28B (IL28B) were associated with sustained virological response (SVR) in hepatitis C virus genotype 1 (HCV-1) infected patients treated with a standard 48-week regimen of peginterferon and ribavirin combination. Whether IL28B SNP genotype would be the influential prognosticator for patients treated with response-guided therapy (RGT) is still not well understood. To investigate the impact of IL28B rs809917 genotype on HCV-1 infected patients treated with RGT. A total of 128 consecutive treatment-naïve HCV-1 infected patients between July 2006 and July 2011 were analyzed. For rapid virological response (RVR) patients, we allowed an abbreviated 24-week regimen regardless of baseline viral loads, otherwise, a 48-week regimen was implemented (for patients with early virological response). The IL28B rs8099917 SNP genotypes were determined accordingly. A total of 117 patients (91.4%) were of rs8099917 TT genotype and 11 (8.6%) were of GT/GG genotype. Eighty-two of the 128 (64.1%) patients achieved SVR, occurring in 54 of 67 RVR patients (80.6%) and 28 of 61 non-RVR patients (45.9%, p

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Shortened duration does not comprise its efficacy

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:37 +0200

Endoscopic-ultrasound-guided cystogastrostomy for walled-off necrosis of the pancreas

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:31 +0200

Pseudoachalasia caused by a cholangiocarcinoma in the liver

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:23 +0200

Pseudoachalasia, or secondary achalasia, caused by neoplasms is a rare entity. We describe a case of pseudoachalasia in an 80-year-old woman who presented with a 2-month history of progressive dysphagia and postprandial vomiting. An esophagogram demonstrated a markedly dilated esophagus with a typical “bird-beak” appearance of the gastroesophageal junction, indicative of achalasia. However, esophageal manometric study disclosed normal peristalsis of the esophagus, not suggestive of a typical feature of achalasia. Abdominal computed tomography scan demonstrated a hypovascular tumor in the left lobe of the liver, extending to the gastroesophageal junction and proximal lesser curve of the stomach. The patient underwent a palliative gastrostomy with a liver biopsy. Finally, cholangiocarcinoma was diagnosed based on the pathological findings. Despite its rarity, clinicians should be aware of this finding as a potential cause of dysphagia in elderly patients.

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Early termination versus standard termination of ablation procedure

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:14 +0200

To compare the effectiveness of early termination (ET) and standard termination (ST) of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using internally cooled electrodes. Eighty-three treatment naïve patients with HCC with 101 index tumor underwent RFA. ET was defined as termination of ablation if after 6 minutes the power emission was

Higher net change of index of hemoglobin values between colon polyp and nonpolyp mucosa correlates with the presence of an advanced colon adenoma

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:08 +0200

The index of hemoglobin (IHb) has not been applied in colonoscopy to correlate the histological features of colon polyps. This study tested whether the net change of IHb values between polyp and normal mucosa correlates with the pathological features of colon polyps. This study consecutively enrolled patients who underwent colonoscopy during September 2011–August 2012 in a single tertiary referral colorectal unit. Endoscopic pictures and IHb values of each part of the colon were taken at the levels of cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum. The net change of IHb values was calculated as follows: IHb value of colon polyp minus that of the surrounding mucosa. A total of 117 patients (32 with hyperplastic polyp, 5 with sessile serrated adenoma, 53 with tubular adenoma, 10 with villotubular adenoma, and 3 with adenocarcinoma) were recruited. The net change of IHb values increased in following order: hyperplastic polyp, tubular adenoma, sessile serrated adenoma, villotubular adenoma, and adenocarcinoma (−3.8 ± 6.3, −1.2 ± 1.7, −1.2 ± 5.7, 2.9 ± 8.1, and 12.7 ± 9.3, respectively, p

Hepatitis C virus treatment update — A new era of all-oral HCV treatment

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:47:01 +0200

There are estimated to be more than a hundred million hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers worldwide. About 30% of carriers develop serious liver diseases, such as liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. HCV Genotype 1 is the most common genotype worldwide and the most difficult to treat with interferon-based therapy. Therapy for patients with chronic HCV infection is complicated by poor tolerability and inadequate rates of sustained virological response (SVR). Although the addition of a protease inhibitor in combination with peg-interferon alpha plus ribavirin improved SVR rates and shortened the treatment period, many patients could not tolerate this therapy because of advanced age and clinical conditions such as anemia and low platelet count. Interferon-free therapies that combine two or more direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents can improve both efficacy and tolerability. Phase III trials of daclatasvir plus asunaprevir, ombitasvir plus parataprevir/r, and sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir all showed high overall SVR rates with few adverse events. However, development of antiviral resistance is a concern with DAA therapies, and it is important to avoid treating patients with existing NS5A Y93H mutations with daclatasvir plus asunaprevir or ombitasvir plus parataprevir/r therapy to prevent viral breakthrough. Fortunately, sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir therapy seems to be less affected by NS5A Y93H variants. An important goal of HCV therapy is to expand treatment to all patients. The current study aims to show the efficacy and safety of these therapies both in clinical trial and real world settings based on our own clinical experiences.

Barretts esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma: East versus West

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:46:57 +0200

Probable autoimmune hepatitis and systemic sclerosis complicated by reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome: An unusual association

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:46:52 +0200

Systemic sclerosis is a multisystem autoimmune rheumatic disorder characterized by fibrosis in the skin and internal organs but rarely with hepatic or brain involvement. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome is characterized by a unique pattern of brain vasogenic edema in the setting of neurotoxicity predominantly in the parietal and occipital regions. We report a case of systemic sclerosis associated with probable autoimmune hepatitis that progressed rapidly to reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome with loss of vision, seizures, and coagulopathy. Brain computed tomography showed faint low density in the bilateral occipital lobes and posterior parietal lobes with edematous change. Fortunately, the patients clinical condition considerably improved 2 days following the initiation of 100 mg intravenous hydrocortisone infusion.

Empiric antibiotic choices for community-acquired biliary tract infections

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:46:47 +0200

The study was conducted to reveal the most appropriate empiric antibiotics for the treatment of community-acquired biliary tract infections (CA-BTI) at a regional hospital in Taiwan. The study was performed between October 1, 2010 and October 31, 2012. All positive bile culture results of presumptive community-acquired origins were collected. The associated etiologic microorganisms and their antimicrobial susceptibilities were analyzed. The appropriateness of empiric therapy (defined as the effectiveness of the antibiotics against the etiologic agents) and the subsequent treatment response were examined through the review of medical records. A total of 115 patients (cholecystitis, 83 cases, 72.2%, cholangitis, 32 cases, 27.8%) and 189 isolates (136 Gram-negative bacilli, 37 Gram-positive cocci, and 16 anaerobes) were analyzed. The most frequent pathogens were Escherichia coli (n = 69, 36.5%), Klebsiella spp. (n = 37, 19.6%), enterococci (n = 29, 15.3%), and Bacteroides spp. (n = 11, 5.8%). Penicillin resistance (5.4%) was low in Gram-positive cocci, whereas higher resistance (>20%) to cefazolin, cefuroxime, and ampicillin–sulbactam was found in Gram-negative bacilli. Anaerobes also demonstrated high resistance to clindamycin (37.5%) but less to metronidazole (12.5%). Appropriate empiric therapy was found in 92 (80%) cases, and among them, 83 (90.2%) were treated successfully. The treatment success rate (69.6%) was significantly lower among the remaining 23 cases with inappropriate empiric therapy (16 of 23 vs. 83 of 92, p

Are There Impacts of Urban Heat Island on Future Climate Change?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:14 +0200

A Review on Evaluation Methods of Climate Modeling

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:08 +0200

There is scientific progress in the evaluation methods of recent Earth system models (ESMs). Methods range from single variable to multi-variables, multi-processes, multi-phenomena quantitative evaluations in five layers (spheres) of the Earth system, from climatic mean assessment to climate change (such as trends, periodicity, interdecadal variability), extreme values, abnormal characters and quantitative evaluations of phenomena, from qualitative assessment to quantitative calculation of reliability and uncertainty for model simulations. Researchers started considering independence and similarity between models in multi-model use, as well as the quantitative evaluation of climate prediction and projection effect and the quantitative uncertainty contribution analysis. In this manuscript, the simulations and projections by both CMIP5 and CMIP3 that have been published after 2007 are reviewed and summarized. Zhao, Z.-C., Y. Luo, and J.-B. Huang, 2013: A review on evaluation methods of climate modeling. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.137.

Effects of Sunspot on the Multi-Decadal Climate Projections

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:27:01 +0200

Comparison and Analysis of CO2 Emissions Data for China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:52 +0200

This paper reviews the CO2 emissions data for China provided by various international organizations and databases (namely IEA, BP, EDGAR/PBL/JRC, CDIAC, EIA and CAIT) and compares them with China’s official data and estimation. The difference among these data is due to different scopes, methods and underlying data, and particularly the difference in fossil fuel consumption. Compared with data from other databases, IEA and CAIT data have the best comparability with China’s official data. The paper recommends that China enhance its coal statistics, raise the frequency of official data publication and improve the inventory completeness. Zhu, S.-L., 2014: Comparison and analysis of CO2 emissions data for China. Adv. Clim. Change Res ., 5(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.017.

Analysis of the Carbon Footprint and Its Environmental Impact Factors for Living and Travel in Shijiazhuang City

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:41 +0200

By using methods of carbon footprint analysis, and impacts of population, affluence and technology (IPAT), this article analyzes the carbon footprints of residence and travel, and their influential factors for different urban residential incomes, using 1, 500 household questionnaires in Shijiazhuang city, Hebei province. The results show that the process of urban residents improving their living standards is also a driving factor in the increase of their carbon footprints, at the same time, the progress in technology has a positive impact on reducing the carbon footprints of urban residence. This article suggests that some measures, such as promoting energy-saving buildings and central heating supply, and establishing the convenient and comfortable public transport system, should be taken to reduce the carbon footprints of residence and travel in Shijiazhuang city. Zhuang, X., K. Jiang, and X. Zhao, 2011: Analysis of the carbon footprint and its environmental impact factors for living and travel in Shijiazhuang city. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00159.

Simulation of Climate Negotiation Strategies between China and the U.S. Based on Game Theory

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:13 +0200

Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S. is developed. Based on utility and game theory, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country’s climate change investment under non-cooperative scenario is too small to ensure the 2°C target. To guarantee the stability and win-win basis for global cooperation, the simulation results also indicate that it makes sense to assist and compensate technology transfer and funding to China. Jin, Z.-G., W.-J. Cai, and C. Wang, 2014: Simulation of climate negotiation strategies between China and the U.S. based on game theory. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.034.

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:26:06 +0200

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households. Zhou, S., M. Shi, N. Li, et al., 2011: Impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation and economic growth in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00124.

From global change to Future Earth in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:56 +0200

Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China. As a new international research initiative, Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability. The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth, the consultation project Develop ‘Future Earth in China’ for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China. To help promote the sustainability movement in China, Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences, policymakers, and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design, co-produce, and co-delivery.

Implementation of the Future Earth programme in China: Chinese scientists at the forefront

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:50 +0200

Practical Paths towards Lowering Black Carbon Emissions

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:41 +0200

Black carbon (BC) aerosol, accounting for a minor fraction of atmospheric aerosols, is attracting increased attention due to its impact on air quality, human health, and climate change. Focusing on BC emission reduction, this paper gives a brief introduction to the sources and global distribution of BC. Along with the decrease of BC emissions from such actions as the reduction of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and regulating local air quality, it also highlights other BC reduction approaches such as control and improvement of combustion conditions, the elimination of open biomass burning, and the sequestration of BC by biomass pyrolysis. Finally, it is stressed that at this moment there is no enough reason to push BC reduction into any climate change related negotiations, although BC has been included in some of so-called win-win reduction targets for the quick response to both climate and non-climate appeals. Zhi, G., X. Zhang, H. Cheng, et al., 2011: Practical paths towards lowering black carbon emissions. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00012.

Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:31 +0200

The study investigated the trend of extreme flood events in the Pearl River basin during 1951–2010. Stream flow data at 23 gauging stations were used for the study. The Pearson type III distribution was selected for the flood frequency analysis. Results indicate that extreme flood events increase significantly in the Pearl River Basin since 1980. At the 23 gauging stations, there are 16 (70%) stations show positive (increasing) trends in 1981–2010. Most of the 16 stations are located along the West River and North River. While 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends, and are found in the East River and the southeast region of the West River Basin. Wu, Z.-Y., G.-H. Lu, Z.-Y. Liu, et al., 2013: Trends of extreme flood events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951–2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.110.

Simulation of global ocean acidification and chemical habitats of shallow- and cold-water coral reefs

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:25:09 +0200

Using the UVic Earth System Model, this study simulated the change of seawater chemistry and analyzed the chemical habitat surrounding shallow- and cold-water coral reefs from the year 1800 to 2300 employing RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model results showed that the global ocean will continue to absorb atmospheric CO2 . Global mean surface ocean temperature will rise 1.1–2.8 K at the end of the 21st century across RCP scenarios. Meanwhile, the global mean surface ocean pH will drop 0.14–0.42 and the ocean surface mean concentration of carbonate will decrease 20%–51% across the RCP scenarios. The saturated state of sea water with respect to calcite carbonate minerals (Ω ) will decrease rapidly. During the pre-industrial period, 99% of the shallow-water coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with Ω > 3.5 and 87% of the deep-sea coral reefs were surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation. Within the 21st century, except for the high mitigation scenario of RCP2.6, almost none shallow-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with Ω > 3.5. Under the intensive emission scenario of RCP8.5, by the year 2100, the aragonite saturation horizon will rise to 308 m under the sea surface from 1138 m at the pre-industrial period, thus 73% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite undersaturation. By the year 2300, only 5% of the cold-water coral reefs will be surrounded by seawater with aragonite supersaturation.

Observed Climate Changes in Southwest China during 1961–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:56 +0200

The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961–2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region, rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend, annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing, the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s, the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased. Ma, Z.-F., J. Liu, S.-Q. Zhang, et al., 2013: Observed climate changes in Southwest China during 1961–2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.030.

Climate Change in Southwest China during 1961–2010: Impacts and Adaptation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:50 +0200

Due to climate change, the regional agro-climatic conditions in Southwest China have undergone changes. The heat sources for the growth of crops have been improved. The number of days with temperatures steadily above 0°C and 10°C (two criteria) have increased during 1960–2010. The area suitable for multiple cropping has increased, the growth period has shortened, the climatic potential productivity has declined, the pest damage has worsened. During 1961–2010, the desired cooling degree days in Southwest China has increased 38.9°C d per decade. Forest fires and pests have increased. The area of meadow and wetlands has decreased. Heterogeneous invasion has intensified, endangered animal and plant species have increased. The tourism landscape has been damaged. The risk of human health has increased. In the 21st century, with the increase of temperature and precipitation, the number of days with temperature steadily above 10°C and the accumulated temperature will continue to increase, most notably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The area of intercropping will expand, multiple cropping will move to higher altitudes. The impacts of agrometeorological disasters, pests and diseases will intensify. The summer cooling energy consumption continues to increase, energy supply will show larger variability, the gap between energy supply and demand will be widened. The phenology will keep on changing, and the habitat will be worsening. Biological population will move northward and to higher altitudes. Some species are at risk of extinction. Negative effects on health will increase. Ma, Z.-F., J. Liu, and S.-Q. Yang, 2013: Climate change in Southwest China during 1961–2010: Impacts and adaptation. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4(4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.223.

Is Global Strong Wind Declining?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:44 +0200

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Northwest China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:38 +0200

Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving agriculture have been taken. Damaging consequences of imbalance between grassland and livestock were enhanced. The deterioration trend of grassland was intensified, both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation (snow), water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend has shown sign of under control. Zhao, H.-Y., J.-Q. Guo, C.-J. Zhang, et al., 2014: Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Northwest China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 5 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.007.

Establishing the fair allocation of international aviation carbon emission rights

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:22 +0200

To identify potentially unfair use of international aviation carbon emission rights in different countries, this paper presents a carbon Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient, constructed on the basis of historical cumulative international aviation CO2 emissions per capita. The study follows a methodology adapted from the research into fair income allocation. The results of these calculations show that there has been vast unfairness surrounding international aviation carbon emissions in the past, and that this unfairness has been partially hidden by a delay in accumulative start dates. A solution to this problem, allowing fair allocation of carbon emissions, is the key to building a mechanism for the reduction of global international aviation emissions. This study proposes a fair method for allocating emission rights, based on a responsibility-capacity index. Taking a goal of carbon-neutral growth by 2020 as an example, the degree of carbon emission reduction expected from different countries by 2021 is calculated using the proposed method.

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:17 +0200

Advances in the Study of Black Carbon Effects on Climate

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:11 +0200

Black carbon (BC) aerosols can strongly absorb solar radiation in very broad spectral wavebands, from the visible to the infrared. As a potential factor contributing to global warming, BC aerosols not only directly change the radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system, but also indirectly affect global or regional climate by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei to alter cloud microphysical properties. Here, recent progresses in the studies of radiative forcing due to BC and its climate effects are reviewed. The uncertainties in current researches are discussed and some suggestions are provided for future investigations. Zhang, H., and Z. Wang, 2011: Advances in the study of black carbon effects on climate. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00023.

Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:24:03 +0200

The 21st Conference of Party (COP21) held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties) that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content, 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC, 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2, 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

A Long Lasting and Extensive Drought Event over China in 1876–1878

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:57 +0200

Between 1876 and 1878 a large-scale drought occurred in China. This is a major meteorological disaster and an extreme climate event despite the cold climate at the end of the Little Ice Age. In this paper the dynamic evolution of the occurrence and development of the drought is reproduced on the basis of historical literature records. These were used to calculate the yearly numbers of drought-hit counties and to determine the spatial distribution in addition with concomitant famine, locust plague and pestilence epidemic for each of the three years. The persistent drought disaster spread over 13 provinces with its center in Shaanxi, Henan and Shanxi provinces, where the continuous non-soaking rain period exceeded 340 days. Conclusively, it is more severe than the worst drought (1928–1930) in the 20th century. This drought disaster of 1876–1878 took place in the descending phase of the 11th sunspot activity period and the start of the 12th period. It also happened during a spell of frequent El Niño events and corresponds with an extremely strong El Niño. Zhang, D., and Y. Liang, 2010: A long lasting and extensive drought event over China in 1876–1878. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00091.

Effects of climate changes on dust aerosol over East Asia from RegCM3

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:49 +0200

In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model (RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present (1991–2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future (2091–2100, following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC3.2_hires), two without (Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with (Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December–January–February–March (DJFM) and the decrease in April–May (AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.

PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 in China and an analysis of the impact of pollutant emission control

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:41 +0200

This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China (15–55°N, 72–136°E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observations made during 2010–2013. The annual mean values were 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU over the globe and China, respectively. The distribution of PM2.5 and seasonal changes in concentrations in China were then simulated using an aerosol chemistry–climate coupled model system, with an annual mean value of 0.51 × 10−8 kg m−3 . The contributions from five different aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also determined. The relationships among the emissions of aerosols, greenhouse gases and their precursors and radiative forcings were determined with reference to the (IPCC AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Fifth Assessment Report. From these relationships, the possible effects of controlling O3 precursors and (PM) particulate matter on the climate were considered. The influence of the control of O3 precursors was not totally clear, and reducing emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases and black carbon was considered a secondary measure for short-term (the next 50 years) climate-change mitigation. Reducing emissions of CO2 is still the best strategy for meeting the target of a global average rise in surface air temperature of less than 2 °C. Near- and short-term emission reduction strategies are important for both effective environmental protection and climate-change mitigation.

A study of the validation of atmospheric CO2 from satellite hyper spectral remote sensing

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:35 +0200

Three total column dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2 ) products from satellite retrievals, namely SCIAMACHY, NIES-GOSAT, and ACOS-GOSAT, in the Northern Hemisphere were validated by ground data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The results showed that the satellite data have the same seasonal fluctuations as in the TCCON data, with maximum in April or May and minimum in August or September. The three products all underestimate the XCO2 . The ACOS-GOSAT and the NIES-GOSAT products are roughly equivalent, and their mean standard deviations are 2.26 × 10−6 and 2.27 × 10−6 respectively. The accuracy of the SCIMACHY product is slightly lower, with a mean standard deviation of 2.91 × 10−6 .

Developing bioenergy to tackle climate change : Bioenergy path and practice of Tianguan group

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:29 +0200

Biomass energy would become the most potential renewable energies, for whether wind power or photovoltaic, would be restricted by the nature thus cannot provide stable power, while biomass energy is the only renewable energy that can be used in the form of gas, liquid or solid stage, it could replace the fossil energy, lead a positive influence on the control of the greenhouse gases. Across the globe, the biomass produced through photosynthesis is about 200 Gt, or 99 Gtce per year. If 10% of the biomass is utilized, more than 4 Gt of fuel ethanol and other bioenergy products can be produced, equivalent to 4.13 Gt of petroleum consumed by the world in 2014. Therefore, bioenergy can be a feasible alternative to fossil energy.

Test Calibration of the Paleoclimatic Proxy Data with Chinese Historical Records

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:15 +0200

The calibration of paleoclimate proxies is one of the key problems in the study of paleoclimate at present. Historical documentary records of climate are suitable for calibration on dating and the climatic implication of the proxy data in a climatological sense. A test calibration on correcting the Delingha tree ring precipitation series using Chinese historical documentary records shows that among the 44 extreme dry cases in 1401–1950 AD, 42 cases (or 95.5%) are believable. Thus the long series of Delingha rings-denoted precipitation is highly reliable. Another test to validate the monsoon intensity proxy data based on the Zhanjiang Huguangyan sediments using historical records indicates that the years of Lake Maar Ti content series-designated winter monsoon intensities are entirely opposite to historical documents-depicted years of harsh winters in 800–900 AD. As a result, serious doubt is raised about the climatic implication of this paleo-monsoon proxy series. Zhang, D., 2011: Test calibration of the paleoclimatic proxy data with Chinese historical records. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00038.

Contribution of Forest Management Credits in Kyoto Protocol Compliance and Future Perspectives

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:10 +0200

Article 3 paragraph 3 and paragraph 4 of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) allow parties to use credits from land-based activities for offsetting their emission reduction/limitation target committed in the KP. Forest management (FM) is the dominant activity accounted by Annex I parties of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change in the first commitment period of KP (2008–2012). Data reported for 2008 and 2009 indicate that over half of the emission reduction target of 24 Annex I parties that expect to use FM removals can be offset by FM credits in the first commitment period. Especially the majority of the emission reduction target of Slovenia, Sweden, Latvia, Finland, Japan, and Croatia may be achieved through FM credits. The total FM CAP as contained in decision 16/CMP.1 in the first commitment period was over-estimated significantly by 50% for all KP parties and 36% for parties that elected FM. Some parties such as Russia, Japan, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland that elected FM activity may benefit largely from the over-estimated CAP. Presuming a significant increase of the harvest rate, the FM reference level (FMRL) for 2013–2020 is only 1/5 of the historical mean value of FM removals even though most parties show an increasing or a steady trend of net removals from 1990 to 2009. As a result Annex I parties would be able to use FM credits in the future that are over 4 times of FM CAP in the first commitment period. This potential FM credit would account for 7.7% of total emissions by sources without land use, land-use change and forestry activities (LULUCF) in the base year or 1990, and more Annex I parties would share the “benefit” from the FMRL accounting approach. Zhang, X., 2011: Contribution of forest management credits in Kyoto Protocol compliance and future perspectives. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00171.

A Study of the Large Scale Flooding over Eastern China in 1755

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:23:03 +0200

Following disastrous flooding in several river valleys over eastern China in 1755, serious flooding occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in 1756 and 1757, a rarely seen precipitation pattern of north-flood and south-drought in China for two successive years. This is a serious meteorological disaster and extreme climatic event taking place under the climatic background of a warm phase of the Little Ice Age. In this paper, by means of historical literature records, the rainy and flooding situation and the weather characteristics of these years are reconstructed and the maps depicting areas of prolonged rain, flood and concomitant famine, insect pest, and pestilence are made. The results show that, in 1755, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, and the Huaihe River Basin experienced a prolonged rainy season with multiple torrential rain events. The continuous rainy period exceeded 40 days in the Huang-Huai Region. An early Meiyu occurred, and the duration of the Meiyu period in the lower Yangtze River Basin was 43 days, the longest in the 18th century. Particularly in Nanjing the annual rainfall of 1755 was 1, 378 mm, the highest record of the 18th century. The year of 1755 is characterized by lower temperature in summer, early frost in autumn, and heavy snowfall and freezing rain in winter. These characteristics are extremely similar to those of 1823 and 1954, two typical years of extreme rainfall. And all these three years with extreme precipitation are corresponding to the minimum phase of the solar activity cycle. Zhang, D.-E., 2012: A study of the large scale flooding over eastern China in 1755. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00128.

Natural and human-induced changes in summer climate over the East Asian monsoon region in the last half century: A review

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:22:57 +0200

In the last half century, a significant warming trend occurred in summer over eastern China in the East Asian monsoon region. However, there were no consistent trends with respect to the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) or the amount of summer rainfall averaged over eastern China. Both of the EASM and summer rainfall exhibited clear decadal variations. Obvious decadal shifts of EASM occurred around the mid- and late 1970s, the late 1980s and the early 1990s, and the late 1990s and early 2000s, respectively. Summer rainfall over eastern China exhibited a change in spatial distribution in the decadal timescale, in response to the decadal shifts of EASM. From the mid- and late 1970s to the late 1980s and the early 1990s, there was a meridional tri-polar rainfall distribution anomaly with more rainfall over the Yangtze River valley and less rainfall in North and South China, but in the period from the early 1990s to the late 1990s and the early 2000s the tri-polar distribution changed to a dipolar one, with more rainfall appearing over southern China south to the Yangtze River valley and less rainfall in North China. However, from the early 2000s to the late 2000s, the Yangtze River valley received less rainfall. The decadal changes in EASM and summer rainfall over eastern China in the last half century are closely related to natural internal forcing factors such as Eurasian snow cover, Arctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures in tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, ocean–atmospheric coupled systems of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO), and uneven thermal forcing over the Asian continent. Up to now, the roles of anthropogenic factors, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land usage/cover changes, on existing decadal variations of EASM and summer rainfall in this region remain uncertain.

Some reflections on researches of Future Earth changes in air quality and climate

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:22:51 +0200

Within the context of our current research and understanding of climate change, decisionmakers are particularly concerned with the extent of future climate change, its comprehensive impact, and the types of socioeconomic pathways available with respect to mitigation and adaptation. Among the factors contributing to these important issues, the role of air pollution in global and regional climate warming remains as one of the largest uncertainties. On the basis of understanding of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, specifically, in the role of air pollution in climate change, scenarios establishment, and relationship between the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Weaknesses and reflections were discussed here especially in strengthening impact, adaptation and mitigation research that related with changes in air pollution and climate. In the future, there are needs to in-depth understand how and why the air pollution in China is so serious and changing, to understand the likely future changes in air pollution and climate, to strengthen comprehensive impact research and selective reduction strategies related to changes in air pollution and climate. Furthermore, this study outlines the needs to develop strategies to close the loop of differential impacts and costs, to establish co-benefits and sustainable development goals, to identify the crucial risks and options for synergies/trade-offs, to integrate sector-specific details with macro-economics, and to integrate the assessments of the various policy instruments. All these focus areas will help to facilitate the transition of economic development patterns towards green and low-carbon development.

Toward Paris: China and climate change negotiations

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:16:04 +0200

This article explains the challenges and evolution of climate change governance by linking governance and diplomacy. The challenges of climate change involve not only international competition for new energy but also related adjustments of global governance in this area. To be specific, the carbon emission reductions are still problematic, and negotiations surrounding financing mechanisms between developed and developing countries hang in doubt. Furthermore, the attitude of the two sides toward CBDRs (common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities) and INDCs (intended nationally determined contributions) is disparate. Finally, this article outlines some diplomatic policies for Chinas future developmental trend.

Study on the Concept of Per Capita Cumulative Emissions and Allocation Options

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:15:26 +0200

Global long-term emission reduction targets need well defined options for equitable allocation of greenhouse gas emissions. Scholars from developing countries put forward the concept of equitable per capita cumulative emission rights. There are four possible operational definitions resulting from this concept. These potential options for allocation of emission rights are expressed with mathematical equations. Through simple simulation, this paper reveals the advantages, disadvantages and characteristics of each option. Yu, S., X. Gao, C. Ma, et al., 2011: Study on the concept of per capita cumulative emissions and allocation options. Adv. Clim . Change Res ., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00079.

Regional Allocation of CO2 Intensity Reduction Targets Based on Cluster Analysis

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:15:01 +0200

To meet China’s CO2 intensity target of 40%–45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed. Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups based on economy, emissions, and reduction potential indicators. Under the equity principle, the two most developed groups are assigned the highest reduction targets (55% and 65%, respectively). However, their reduction potential is limited. Under the efficiency principle, the two groups with the highest reduction potential take the highest targets (48% and 61%, respectively), but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with a prominent reduction potential takes the highest target (54%), and the 2nd and the 3rd groups with large industry scales take the second highest target (49%). However, under all the three allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and the 6th groups, which have a relatively low economic ability, emissions, and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanisms and policy instruments should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation. Yang, Y., W.-J. Cai, C. Wang, et al., 2012: Regional allocation of CO2 intensity reduction targets based on cluster analysis. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00220.

Analysis on Changes of Basic Climatic Elements and Extreme Events in Xinjiang, China during 1961–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:51 +0200

By using the observation data from 89 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961–2010, this paper analyzed the basic climatic elements including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure, and dust storm in the entire Xinjiang and the subareas: North Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains, and South Xinjiang. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2010 the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the entire Xinjiang show an increasing trend with the increasing rate rising from south to north. The increasing rate of annual mean minimum temperature is over twice more than that of the annual mean maximum temperature, contributing much to the increase in the annual averages. The magnitude of the decrease rate of low-temperature days is larger than the increase rate of high-temperature days. The increase of warm days and warm nights and the decrease of cold days and cold nights further reveal that the temperature increasing in Xinjiang is higher. In addition, annual and seasonal rainfalls have been increasing. South Xinjiang experiences higher increase in rainfall amounts than North Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains. Annual rainy days, longest consecutive rainy days, the daily maximum precipitation and extreme precipitation events, annual torrential rain days and amount, annual blizzard days and amount, all show an increasing trend, corresponding to the increasing in annual mean water vapor pressure. This result shows that the humidity has increased with temperature increasing in the past 50 years. The decrease in annual mean wind speed and gale days lessen the impact of dust storm, sandstorm, and floating dust events. The increase in annual rainy days is the cause of the decrease in annual sunshine duration, while the increase in spring sunshine duration corresponds with the decrease in dust weather. Therefore, the increase in precipitation indicators, the decrease in gales and dust weather, and the increasing in sunshine duration in spring will be beneficial to crops growth. Jiang, Y.-A., Y. Chen, Y.-Z. Zhao, et al., 2013: Analysis on changes of basic climatic elements and extreme events in Xinjiang, China during 1961–2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.020.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China — Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:41 +0200

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China’s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Simulation results show that: industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development, regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice. Yuan, Y.-N., M.-J. Shi, N. Li, et al., 2012: Intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and regional economic development in China — based on a 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium model. Adv. Clim . Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00154.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:35 +0200

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38°C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments. Ren, Y.-J., J.-X. Cui, S.-Q. Wan, et al., 2013: Climate change impacts on central China and adaptation measures. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.215.

Estimation of aerosol properties over the Chinese desert region with MODIS AOD assimilation in a global model

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:25 +0200

A Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter assimilation system has been implemented into an aerosol-coupled global nonhydrostatic model to simulate the aerosol mass concentration and aerosol optical properties of 3 desert sites (Ansai, Fukang, Shapotou) in northwestern China. One-month experiment results of April 2006 reveal that the data assimilation can correct the much overestimated aerosol surface mass concentration, and has a strong positive effect on the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulation, improving agreement with observations. Improvement is limited with the Ångström Exponent (AE) simulation, except for much improved correlation coefficient and model skill scores over the Ansai site. Better agreement of the AOD spatial distribution with the independent observations of Terra (Deep Blue) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AODs is obtained by assimilating the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD product, especially for regions with AODs lower than 0.30. This study confirms the usefulness of the remote sensing observations for the improvement of global aerosol modeling.

Reconstruction of October Mean Temperature since 1796 in Wuying Based on Tree Ring Data

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:15 +0200

The monthly mean temperature for October in the Fenglin National Natural Reserve of Wuying, in Heilongjiang province, was reconstructed for the period running from 1796 to 2004 using RES tree ring chronology. The explained variance of the reconstruction is 34.8%. In the past 209 years, there are 4 colder and 4 warmer periods according to the reconstructed series. A period of 3.33-year is found significant based on the power spectrum method. Abrupt changes are also detected in the reconstructed series with 30-year time scale based on the smoothing t -test, smoothing F -test and Le Page test methods. Significant abrupt changes in mean value are observed for around 1871 and 1900, and a significant abrupt change in standard deviation is observed for around 1851. Yin, H., H. Liu, L. Huang, et al., 2010: Reconstruction of October mean temperature since 1796 in Wuying based on tree ring data. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00100.

Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:14:08 +0200

Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data, the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period (2016–2035), medium term period (2046–2065) and long term period (2080–2099), respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks. Xu, Y., Zhang, B., Zhou, B.-T., et al., 2014. Projected flood risks in China based on CMIP5. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.057.

Observed Climate Change in East China during 1961–2007

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:58 +0200

By using in situ daily observations in East China during 1961–2007 and NCEP reanalysis data, the methods of statistical analyses, urban minus rural and observation minus reanalysis, it is revealed that the observed climate change and surface warming in East China were mainly induced by urbanization. The results show that East China has experienced two warmer periods of 1930s and 1980s in the past century, from 1951 to 2007, the regional mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.14°C per decade, heat waves happened in urban center more frequently, and local climate showed a warming and dry trend, there was no significant linear trend in regional mean precipitation in the past 50 years. Urbanization was a crucial element for the regional warming, about 44% of the warming was due to heat island effect in the mega city. Hou, Y.-L., B.-D. Chen, X.-C. Yang, et al., 2013: Observed climate change in East China during 1961–2007. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.084.

Influences of Urban Temperature on the Electricity Consumption of Shanghai

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:49 +0200

By using data of daily electricity consumption and temperature for the period 2003–2007 in Shanghai, the variation of energy consumption and the correlations between energy consumption and temperature are analyzed. The results indicate that winter and summer are the two peak seasons of energy consumption due to the urban residential heating and cooling demand. The base temperature of electricity and daily temperature is 10°C in winter and 22°C in summer respectively. When the outdoor temperature is below 10°C, the heating demand becomes obvious, and with over 22°C the cooling demand. The spatial distribution of cooling degree-days (CDD) and heating degree-days (HDD) clearly shows urbanization effects. By the influence of urbanization the central city experiences greater CDD in summer and lower HDD in winter. The projected temperature for 2011–2050 implies a significant increase in CDD and a decrease in HDD. This may have implications on the future energy demand if the current energy consumption pattern does not change. Hou, Y.-L., Mu, H.-Z., Dong, G.-T., et al., 2014. Influences of urban temperature on the electricity consumption of Shanghai. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.074.

Coordinated Research on Orderly Human Activity to Cope with Global Climate Change — Our Thoughts and Recommendations

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:43 +0200

This is a letter from two Chinese scientists to Dr. Dahe Qin, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I. Human society has taken an historical step to address climate change issue. However, how to understand climate change and how to response to climate change will always and everywhere lead various types of disagreements and disputes, thus affecting the pace of societies’ promptly taking orderly human activity against climate change. In the letter, the two scientists bring up their thoughts and recommendations on how to carry out coordinated research on orderly human activity to cope with global climate change.

Safety and effective developing nuclear power to realize green and low-carbon development

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:38 +0200

This paper analyzes the role of nuclear power of Chinas energy structure and industry system. Comparing with other renewable energy the nuclear power chain has very low greenhouse gas emission, so it will play more important role in Chinas low-carbon economy. The paper also discussed the necessity of nuclear power development to achieve emission reduction, energy structure adjustment, nuclear power safety, environmental protection, enhancement of nuclear power technology, nuclear waste treatment, and disposal, as well as nuclear power plant decommissioning. Based on the safety record and situation of the existing power plants in China, the current status of the development of world nuclear power technology, and the features of the independently designed advanced power plants in China, this paper aims to demonstrate the safety of nuclear power. A nuclear power plant will not cause harm either to the environment and nor to the public according to the real data of radioactivity release, which are obtained from an operational nuclear plant. The development of nuclear power technology can enhance the safety of nuclear power. Further, this paper discusses issues related to the nuclear fuel cycle, the treatment, and disposal strategies of nuclear waste, and the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant, all of which are issues of public concern.

Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:32 +0200

Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIP5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4°C in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures. Yao, Y., Y. Luo, J.-B. Huang, 2012: Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on CMIP5 model. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00179.

Changes in Climate Factors and Extreme Climate Events in South China during 1961–2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:22 +0200

Daily climate data at 110 stations during 1961–2010 were selected to examine the changing characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in South China. The annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by 0.16°C per decade, most notably in the Pearl River Delta and in winter. The increase rate of the annual extreme minimum temperature (0.48°C per decade) is over twice that of the annual extreme maximum temperature (0.20°C per decade), and the increase of the mean temperature is mainly the result of the increase of the extreme minimum temperature. The increase rate of high-temperature days (1.1 d per decade) is close to the decrease rate of low-temperature days (–1.3 d per decade). The rainfall has not shown any significant trend, but the number of rainy days has decreased and the rain intensity has increased. The regional mean sunshine duration has a significant decreasing trend of –40.9 h per decade, and the number of hazy days has a significant increasing trend of 6.3 d per decade. The decrease of sunshine duration is mainly caused by the increase of total cloud, not by the increase of hazy days in South China. Both the regional mean pan evaporation and mean wind speed have significant decreasing trends of –65.9 mm per decade and –0.11 m s−1 per decade, respectively. The decrease of both sunshine duration and mean wind speed plays an important role in the decrease of pan evaporation. The number of landing tropical cyclones has an insignificant decreasing trend of –0.6 per decade, but their intensities show a weak increasing trend. The formation location of tropical cyclones landing in South China has converged towards 10–19°N, and the landing position has shown a northward trend. The date of the first landfall tropical cyclone postpones 1.8 d per decade, and the date of the last landfall advances 3.6 d per decade, resulting in reduction of the typhoon season by 5.4 d per decade. Du, Y.-D., H. Ai, H.-L. Duan, et al., 2013: Changes in climate factors and extreme climate events in South China during 1961–2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.001. The Working Group (WG) Reports and Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) will be completed in 2013/2014. In order to address climate change, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has launched climate change assessment reports since August 2008 for East China, South China, Central China, North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, Southwest China, and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. This is the first effort addressing climate change at a regional scale in China and among the first efforts globally. In order to ensure the quality of the report, CMA has organized hundreds of experts from CMA, colleges and universities, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and used a workflow similar to that of the IPCC AR5. The methods of field observation, data analysis, forecasting models and literature review have been used in these reports. Until now, eight regional assessment reports are being published. This journal will continuously publish the studies in three repeating sessions: climate change facts, impact assessment and adaptation, and mitigation, in order to provide the readers with this reference.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health and Adaptation Strategies in South China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:16 +0200

This study reviews the impacts of climate change on human health and presents corresponding adaptation strategies in South China. The daily mean surface air temperatures above or below 26.4°C increase the death risk for the people in Guangzhou, especially the elderly are vulnerable to variations in temperature. Heat waves can cause insomnia, fatigue, clinical exacerbation, or death from heatstroke etc., while cold spells show increases in patients with fractures. During a cold spell period, the rates of both on-site emergency rescues and non-implementable rescues increase, and the risk of non-accidental deaths and respiratory disease deaths significantly rise as well. Both time series of hazy days and ozone concentrations have significant positive correlations with the number of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Both malaria and dengue fever reach higher altitudes and mountainous areas due to climate warming. Climate change is likely to bring stronger heat waves in the future, thereby increasing heat wave-related illnesses and deaths, particularly in the metropolitan areas of the Pearl River Delta. The projected increase of continuous cold days in Guangdong province and parts of northern Guangxi province will affect residents’ health in the future. The rising temperature exaggerates ozone pollution, but it is not clear whether climate change is aggravating or mitigating haze pollution. The transmission potential of malaria in South China will increase by 39%–140% and the transmission season will extend by 1–2 months with an air temperature increase of 1–2°C. By 2050, most areas in Hainan province are projected to convert from non-endemic dengue into endemic dengue areas. The aging population will cause more vulnerable people. To mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on human health, sound and scientific adaptation strategies must be adopted in advance, such as strengthening the surveillance of epidemic diseases in potential transmission areas, conducting timely weather forecasting for human health, evaluating health vulnerability to climate change, improving environmental and health education, and strengthening hazard management and the cooperation between meteorological and health departments. Du, Y.-D., X.-W. Wang, X.-F. Yang, et al., 2013: Impacts of climate change on human health and adaptation strategies in South China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.208.

A Review of Assessment and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Areas in South China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:11 +0200

This paper reviews assessment of climate change impacts on economy, society and ecological environment in the coastal areas of South China based on published literatures, it also proposes suitable adaptation strategies and countermeasures. Review shows that climate change has resulted in sea level rise in the coastal areas of South China, increasing the occurrence and intensity of storm surges, aggravating the influence of saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, urban drainage and flood control, threatening the coastal facility and infrastructures, inundating lowland areas, offsetting mudflat silting, and degrading mangroves and coral reef ecosystem. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and to support the sustainable development in the coastal areas of South China, it is critical to improve the monitoring and early warning system, enhance prevention criteria, fortify coastal protection engineering, strengthen salt tide prevention, and reinforce the ecological restoration and protection. Du, Y.-D., X.-H. Cheng, X.-W. Wang, et al., 2013: A review of assessment and adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the coastal areas in South China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.201.

A Simulation Study on Climatic Effects of Land Cover Change in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:13:04 +0200

The regional climate model RegCM4 was used to investigate the regional climate effects of land cover change over China. Two 24-year simulations (1978–2001), one with the land cover derived from the MODIS data and the other with the CLCV (Chinese land cover derived from vegetation map) data, were conducted for a region encompassing China. The differences between the MODIS and CLCV data reflect characteristics of desertification and degradation of vegetation in China. Results indicate that the land cover change has important impacts on local climate through mechanisms related to changes in surface energy, water budgets and macro-scale circulation. In summer, the land cover change leads to a decrease in surface air temperature over southern China, a reduction in precipitation and an increase in surface air temperature in the transitional climate zone and the northern Tibetan Plateau, and an increase in inter-annual variability of surface air temperature in the marginal monsoon zone and northwestern China. Strengthened southwesterly winds increase precipitation to some extent in central and eastern Inner Mongolia by enhancing water vapor transport. In winter, enhanced northerly winds, bringing more dry and cold air, lead to a reduction in precipitation and temperature over areas south of the Yellow River. Yu, Y., and Z.-H. Xie, 2013: A simulation study on climatic effects of land cover change in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.117.

Review of recent studies of the climatic effects of urbanization in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:55 +0200

This paper summarizes recent studies on the effects of urbanization on climate in China. The effects of urbanization on local climate trends have been re-estimated based on homogenized observations and using improved methods. In this respect, the effect of urbanization on the observed warming trend of local surface air temperatures during the last few decades is determined as being about 20% at urban stations such as the Beijing Observatory. The large-scale weakening trend of wind speed is also about 20% more prominent at the city center than its surroundings. The effect of urbanization on precipitation is not profound, but results of high-resolution regional climate modeling suggest that this effect may depend on the urban extent. Although the urban heat island (UHI) should favor local atmospheric convection and hence precipitation, the increasingly extending urban land-use may reduce precipitation over the urban cluster in North China. It is found that urbanization can play a more notable role in extreme events than usual weather. High-resolution simulations show a positive feedback between the UHI and the super-heat wave in Shanghai during July–August 2013. Relevant studies dealing with urban climate adaptation are discussed in relation to recent findings.

Projections of the 21st Century Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin Extreme Precipitation Events

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:47 +0200

Based on the 1961–1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections, the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected. The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with 30%–100% reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices. However, the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation. Under the SRES A1B emission scenario, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index, and in summer than in winter. Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% and 25% respectively in winter, and by 24% and 32% respectively in summer. Cui, Y., Z.-H. Jiang, W.-L. Chen, et al., 2012: Projections of the 21st century Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin extreme precipitation events. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00076.

Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:40 +0200

Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed. The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3. The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005 (0.84°C per 100 years) with a warming rate of 0.77°C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble (MME). The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century, when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s. The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-year-mean (1986–2005) surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations. However, underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China, and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China. On sub-regional scale, northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999, for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations. With CMIP5 the difference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated. In general, the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature, the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China. Guo, Y., W.-J. Dong, F.-M. Ren, et al., 2013: Surface air temperature simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.145.

Climate extremes revealed by Chinese historical documents over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in winter 1620

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:33 +0200

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) were extracted from Chinese historical documents for the winter of 1620, which includes the beginning of the tenth month of 1620 through the middle ten days of the second month of 1621 in Chinese lunar calendar. By using these records, the winter temperature anomalies compared with the 1961–1990 mean at nine stations were estimated. The results show an average of 50 snow-cover days over the MLRYR ranging from 30 d in Shanghai to 100 d in Jingzhou. The average snow-cover duration was approximately 70 d in Hefei, Huoshan, Nanjing, and Chaohu, and 40–60 d in Anqing, Wuhan, Changde, Changsha, and Jingdezhen. However, Shanghai and southern Jiangsu province had the lowest number of snow-cover days at 30 d. The regional mean winter temperature in 1620 was estimated to be 4.4 °C lower than the 1961–1990 mean. The maximum negative anomaly of −5.7 °C occurred in Jingdezhen, and the minimum anomaly of −3.6 °C was detected in Changsha. Both anomalies were significantly lower than those of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period.

Progress in Research on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on Winter Ski Tourism

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:28 +0200

The impacts of global climate change on ski tourism, which depends heavily on climate conditions, have increasingly gained concern overseas. This paper systematically summarized the relevant research ideas, the technical methods used, and the obtained achievements through an extensive synthesis of the previous studies. Moreover, the major shortcomings and the limitations in the recent studies are pointed in order to present a useful reference for our Chinese investigators. It indicates that the future climate warming would cause the loss of skiable areas, the shortening of skiing seasons and the sharp drop of ski visitors in many low altitude and low latitude ski resorts. The paper finally stressed that future research should pay particular attention to strengthening interdisciplinary cooperation and consider more factors about the impacts of climate-induced environmental changes on tourist flows. In the future ski resort planning and management, the possible impacts of global climate change should be taken into account. Yang, J., and C. Wan, 2010: Progress in research on the impacts of global climate change on winter ski tourism. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00055.

The Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat during 2012–2100 under A2 and A1B Scenarios in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:20 +0200

By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenarios from 2012 to 2100, respectively. The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future. The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2, and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100. The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3% and 12.5% for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO2, while an increase of 1.3% and 0.6% with the fertilization effect of CO2 . Additionally, for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios, independent with the fertilization effect of CO2, which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China. The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties, which need some days of low temperature for dormancy. While in southern China, the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter, thus, they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases. The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures. Song, Y.-L., D.-L. Chen, Y.-J. Liu, et al., 2012: The influence of climate change on winter wheat during 2012–2100 under A2 and A1B scenarios in China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 3 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00138.

The Strategy and Technology Selection for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Control

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:14 +0200

The emission control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is conducive to slowing down global warming. It is also helpful in controlling environmental pollution, and beneficial in improving the local health benefits. This paper aims at six kinds of non-CO2 greenhouse gases under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, namely methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3 ). This paper analyzes the emission status and trend of China’s non-CO2 greenhouse gases, and provides some technology selections for non-CO2 emission reduction. Through strategic policy arrangements and appropriate technology choices, China can gain environmental protection and greenhouse gas control. Zhou, Y.-M., and Y.-S. Feng, 2014: The strategy and technology selection for non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission control. Adv. Clim. Change Res ., 5(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2014.028.

Trends of Tropospheric Ozone over China Based on Satellite Data (1979–2005)

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:12:08 +0200

Long-term trends of yearly and seasonal averages of tropospheric ozone over the whole country and some important regions of China during 1979–2005 are analyzed, based on tropospheric ozone residue (TOR) data retrieved from satellite measurements. The relationship between the TOR and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is studied. The results show that, over the whole country, there is a slight increase of TOR in summer and a decrease in other seasons, while the overall trend for the whole period is insignificant. There are decreasing trends of TOR over the Pearl River Delta and the Sichuan Basin. Significant increasing trends of TOR are found over the North China Plain (NCP) for all seasons except for winter, with a maximum rate of 1.10 DU per decade for summer. There are significant correlations between TOR and SOI for some regions in China but not for the NCP, suggesting that the observed increasing trend of TOR over the NCP may not be linked with changes in atmospheric circulations. Xu, X., and W. Lin, 2011: Trends of tropospheric ozone over China based on satellite data (1979–2005). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00043.

Overview of global monthly surface temperature data in the past century and preliminary integration

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:57 +0200

This paper analyzes the status of existing resources through extensive research and international cooperation on the basis of four typical global monthly surface temperature datasets including the climate research dataset of the University of East Anglia (CRUTEM3), the dataset of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (GHCN-V3), the dataset of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (GISSTMP), and the Berkeley Earth surface temperature dataset (Berkeley). Chinas first global monthly temperature dataset over land was developed by integrating the four aforementioned global temperature datasets and several regional datasets from major countries or regions. This dataset contains information from 9, 519 stations worldwide of at least 20 years for monthly mean temperature, 7, 073 for maximum temperature, and 6, 587 for minimum temperature. Compared with CRUTEM3 and GHCN-V3, the station density is much higher particularly for South America, Africa, and Asia. Moreover, data from significantly more stations were available after the year 1990 which dramatically reduced the uncertainty of the estimated global temperature trend during 1990–2011. The integrated dataset can serve as a reliable data source for global climate change research.

Effects of Cropland Cover Changes on Regional Climate over Western China Based on Simulations with RegCM3

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:49 +0200

The impacts of land cover changes on regional climate in Shaan-Gan-Ning (SGN) in western China were simulated with RegCM3. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by replacing crop grids with different new land cover types in the key area of SGN, where the returning cropland to tree/grass project has been carried out since 1999. The modified new land cover types include desert, forest, shrub and grass. They represent degraded, improved, and maintained vegetation cover with natural canopy in the key area. Results from three individual case studies show that the land cover change causes changes in temperature and terrestrial water variables especially within the key area, while changes in precipitation are found for a larger area. The strongest changes appear where the cropland is degraded to bare soil, leading to increasing temperature and decreases in rainfall, evaporation and soil water. Opposite changes occur when cropland changed into forests, especially with strong increases in soil water. When cropland changed to grass and shrub land, the climatic changes are closer to those with forest cover. This shows the importance of improving and maintaining the vegetation in SGN for the ecosystem and regional climate. Shi, X.-L., H.-J. He, and H.-C. Ren, 2013: Effects of cropland cover changes on regional climate over western China based on simulations with RegCM3. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.250.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Sewage Treatment in China during 2000–2009

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:34 +0200

Based on the statistics from the China Statistical Yearbook (2000–2009) on environment and methods recommended by the IPCC, the amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from domestic and industrial sewage treatment in China are estimated for the period of 2003–2009. CO2 emissions per capita from sewage treatment plants are also analyzed. The results show that the GHG emissions from sewage treatment plants increased steadily from 2003 to 2009, N2 O emissions from domestic sewage are the major source of the total GHG emissions from domestic sewage, CH4 emissions from domestic sewage increase with the greatest speed, CH4 emissions from paper and pulp industry are the major source of industrial sewage emissions, CO2 emissions per capita increase constantly from 2003 to 2009. Zhou, X., Y.-F. Zheng, N. Kang, et al., 2012: Greenhouse gas emissions from sewage treatment in China during 2000–2009. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00205.

Trends in Annual and Seasonal Pan Evaporation in the Lower Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2010

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:27 +0200

The annual and seasonal trends in pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin based on quality-controlled data from 10 meteorological stations in 1961–2010 are analyzed. The causes for the changes in annual and seasonal pan evaporation are also discussed. The results suggest that, despite the 1.15°C increasing in annual mean surface air temperature over the past 50 years (0.23°C per decade), the annual pan evaporation has steadily declined by an average rate of −7.65 mm per year. By comparison, this change is greater than those previously reported in China. Significant decreasing trends in annual pan evaporation have been observed at almost all stations. As a whole, seasonal pan evaporation decreased significantly, especially in summer, whereas seasonal temperature increased significantly, except in summer. Thus, the pan evaporation paradox exists in the lower Yellow River Basin. The trend analysis of other meteorological factors indicates significant decrease in sunshine duration and wind speed, but no significant variations in precipitation and relative humidity at annual and seasonal time scales. By examining the relationship between precipitation and pan evaporation, it did not show a concurrent decrease in pan evaporation and increase in precipitation. The partial correlation analysis discovered that the primary cause of decrease in annual and seasonal pan evaporation is the decrease in wind speed. A further examination using a stepwise regression shows that decrease in wind speed and sunshine duration, and increase in mean temperature are likely to be the main meteorological factors affecting the annual and seasonal pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin over the past 50 years. Ji, X.-J., J.-J. Wang, W.-L. Gu, et al., 2012: Trends in annual and seasonal pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00195.

Uncertainties in Global Warming Projection

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:21 +0200

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:11:16 +0200

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:56 +0200

An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to 2011 was 0.46 W m−2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m−2 . The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 °C in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d−1 in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4 °C). The precipitation notably increased (maximum increase of 1.8 mm d−1 ) over the ocean between 10°N and 20°N and significantly decreased (maximum decrease >–0.6 mm d−1 ) between 10°S and 10°N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Cloud cover significantly increased (by approximately 4%) in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased (by approximately 3%) in tropical areas.

Revolts Frequency during 1644–1911 in North China Plain and Its Relationship with Climate

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:49 +0200

Based on the records of social revolts in the Actual Annals of Qing Dynasty (a collection of official records), the revolts frequency (amount of counties where revolts happened every year) in North China Plain during the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) is reconstructed. By comparing revolts frequency with temperature and precipitation series, the interaction between climate and social responses is analyzed. It can be concluded that revolts broke out more frequently in colder periods and less frequently in warmer periods. There were much more revolts in drought decades than in wet decades, and the three fatal peasant uprisings in the Qing Dynasty were all ignited by severe droughts. The impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on revolts should be estimated at different time scales. The correspondence emerged at neither decadal nor yearly scale until the turn between 18th and 19th centuries, the critical period when per capita cropland area decreased to a vulnerable level. Food crisis increased the vulnerability of local society, and changes in temperature and precipitation became an important trigger for revolts. Xiao, L., Y. Ye, and B. Wei, 2011: Revolts frequency during 1644–1911 in North China Plain and its relationship with climate. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (4), doi:10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00218.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:43 +0200

This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing’anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes (until 2060) may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China’s territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened, their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars (Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky) has shortened from 14–15 years in the past to 8–10 years now. The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu), which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing’anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm–2 . Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change. Wang, X.-Y., C.-Y. Zhao, and Q.-Y. Jia, 2013: Impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in Northeast China. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 4 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.230.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Regional Extreme Low Temperature Events in China during 1960–2009

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:33 +0200

An objective identification technique is used to detect regional extreme low temperature events (RELTE) in China during 1960–2009. Their spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the lowest temperatures of RELTE, together with the frequency distribution of the geometric latitude center, exhibit a double-peak feature. The RELTE frequently happen near the geometric area of 30°N and 42°N before the mid-1980s, but shifted afterwards to 30°N. During 1960–2009, the frequency, intensity, and the maximum impacted area of RELTE show overall decreasing trends. Due to the contribution of RELTE, with long duration and large spatial range, which account for 10% of the total RELTE, there is a significant turning point in the late 1980s. A change to a much more steady state after the late 1990s is identified. In addition, the integrated indices of RELTE are classified and analyzed. Wang, X.-J., Z.-Q. Gong, F.-M. Ren, et al., 2012: Spatial-temporal characteristics of regional extreme low temperature events in China during 1960–2009. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00186.

Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:26 +0200

The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China. Xin, X.-G., T.-W. Wu, and J. Zhang, 2013: Introduction of CMIP5 experiments carried out with the climate system models of Beijing Climate Center. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.041.

Brown carbon in the cryosphere: Current knowledge and perspective

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:17 +0200

Recently, the light-absorbing organic carbon, i.e., brown carbon (BrC), has received an increasing attention, because they could significantly absorb the solar radiation in the range of short wavelengths rather than the purely scattering effect. BrC is ubiquitous in the troposphere. It could undergo long range transport within the atmospheric circulation. After the deposition on the surface of snow or ice in the cryospheric region, as the major light absorbing impurities with black carbon and dust, BrC could reduce the snow albedo and accelerate the glacier melting. In this context, this paper summarized the current knowledge of BrC (in aerosols and snow) in the cryospheric regions including the Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpines. Although some works have been conducted in those region, the current dataset on the optical properties of BrC like Absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE ) and Mass Absorption Efficiency (MAE ) is still limited, which hampers stimulating an accurate evaluation of its climate effects. Especially in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, where very limited information concerning BrC is available. Considering biomass burning as a dominant source of BrC, a large amount of emissions from biomass burning in South Asia could reach the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, where the climate effect of BrC merits more investigation in the future.

Comparison of Global Mean Temperature Series

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:11 +0200

Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed by introducing three series, HadCRUT3, NCDC, and GISS in details. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in NCDC and GISS series. NCDC series has the most complete spatial coverage among the three by using statistic interpolation technique. The weakened global warming in 2000–2009 as revealed in HadCRUT3 data is possibly caused by the lack of data coverage of this dataset over the Arctic. GISS and NCDC series showed much stronger warming trends during the last 10 years (~ 0.1 °C per 10 years). Three series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1910–2009 ( 0.70–0.75 °C per 100 years). Wen, X., G. Tang, S. Wang, et al., 2011: Comparison of global mean temperature series. Adv . Clim . Change Res ., 2 (4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00187.

Impacts of Regional-Scale Land Use/Land Cover Change on Diurnal Temperature Range

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:10:04 +0200

The NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4.0) was used to investigate the climate effects of land use/land cover change (LUCC). Two simulations, one with potential land cover without significant human intervention and the other with current land use, were conducted. Results show that the impacts of LUCC on diurnal temperature range (DTR) are more significant than on mean surface air temperature. The global average annual DTR change due to LUCC is −0.1°C, which is three times as large as the mean temperature change. LUCC influences regional DTR as simulated by the model. In the mid-latitudes, LUCC leads to a decrease in DTR, which is mainly caused by the reduction in daily maximum temperature. However, there are some differences in the low latitudes. The reduction in DTR in East Asia is mainly the result of the decrease in daily maximum temperature, while in India, the decrease in DTR is due to the increase in daily minimum temperature. In general, the LUCC significantly controls the DTR change through the changes in canopy evaporation and transpiration. Hua, W.-J., and H.-S. Chen, 2013: Impacts of regional-scale land use/land cover change on diurnal temperature range. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.166.

Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:58 +0200

Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season (May to October). The results show that below 25°C, both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature. More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at lower temperatures. Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25°C, among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant. In order to investigate the effects of rainfall durations, hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation, respectively. Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25°C is mainly caused by short duration precipitation, and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28°C. Sun, W., J. Li, and R.-C. Yu, 2013: Corresponding relation between warm season precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in South China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.160.

Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Biodiversity Conservation: A Review

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:52 +0200

Climate change has been linked to well-documented changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, and in some cases, extinction. Projections of future change point to dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. Accommodating these shifts to effectively conserve biodiversity in the context of uncertain climate regimes represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by conservation planners. A number of adaptation strategies have been proposed for managing species and ecosystems in a changing climate. However, there has been little guidance available on integrating climate change adaptation strategies into contemporary conservation planning frameworks. The paper reviews the different approaches being used to integrate climate change adaptation into conservation planning, broadly categorizing strategies as continuing and extending on “best practice” principles and those that integrate species vulnerability assessments into conservation planning. We describe the characteristics of a good adaptation strategy emphasizing the importance of incorporating clear principles of flexibility and efficiency, accounting for uncertainty, integrating human response to climate change and understanding trade-offs. Watson, J. E. M., M. Rao, A.-L. Kang, et al., 2012: Climate change adaptation planning for biodiversity conservation: A review. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 3(1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00001. Biodiversity provides basic needs for livelihoods and development of human beings. China, as one of countries with richest biodiversity in the world, contains 17 globally significant biodiversity hotspots. It was observed that climate change has impacted the biodiversity more or less from physiological, phonological and species level, to ecosystem level, and in some cases extinction of species. With the increasing climate change, the biodiversity subject to be more significantly impacted and human intervention is expected to amplify the impacts. Climate change is believed to be one of key threats of the biodiversity conservation. What kinds of cost-effective strategies and measures may be taken to allow biodiversity to adapt climate change impacts is a great challenge in China. This special issue invited three authors to share actions and experiences on the adaptation of biodiversity to climate change, including a case study, a review of adaptation planning and an introduction of national strategy and research developments. The editors hope these articles can provide useful information for the biodiversity conservation under climate change in China.

Environmental Benefits for Phase-Out HCFC-22 in the Residential Air-Conditioner Sector in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:43 +0200

China is the largest producer and consumer of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and the production of HCFC-22 accounts for more than 80% of all HCFCs. This paper concentrates on the residential air-conditioner industry and analyzes the environmental benefits of accelerating the phase-out of HCFC-22 in China. According to the comparison of the baseline and phase-out scenarios of HCFC-22, the findings show that using HC-290 (propane) as a refrigerant alternative will directly reduce the greenhouse effect, and indirectly reduce the emission of greenhouse gases due to a reduction in the electricity consumption. The comparison of two scenarios of HC-290 and HFC-410A refrigerant alternatives shows that the use of HC-290 refrigerant will produce significantly higher environmental benefits than the HFC-410A refrigerant. Wan, T., Y. Dou, L. Wang, et al., 2011: Environmental benefits for phase-out HCFC-22 in the residential air-conditioner sector in China. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00086.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and Chinas sustainable development

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:25 +0200

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%–22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%–8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Does the Global Warming Pause in the Last Decade: 1999–2008?

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:18 +0200

Issues related to the pause of global warming in the last decade are reviewed. It is indicated that: (1) The decade of 1999–2008 is still the warmest of the last 30 years, though the global temperature increment is near zero, (2) Natural factors such as volcanism, solar radiation, ENSO, and thermohaline circulation can have impact on the inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of global mean temperatures. However, it will not mask the global warming trend for a long time, (3) Temperatures of China continue to increase in 1999–2008 with an increment of 0.4–0.5°C per 10 years. Wang, S., X. Wen, Y. Luo, et al., 2010: Does the global warming pause in the last decade: 1999–2008? Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00049.

NOx Release from Snow and Ice Covered Surface in Polar Regions and the Tibetan Plateau

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:11 +0200

The exchanges of NOx between snow and air have significant impact on the atmospheric components and photochemical processes in the overlying boundary layer. Such exchanges increase the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and may have a crucial impact on the air signals that are retrieved from ice cores. In the recent years, sunlit snow and ice have been demonstrated to be important NOx sources in the polar atmospheric boundary layer. This paper makes a thorough review on the release of NOx from snow and ice, including field observations and experimental evidences, release mechanisms and influential parameters that affect such a release process, polar NOx concentrations and fluxes, and environmental impacts of the chemical processes of NOx in the polar atmospheric boundary layer. In the Tibetan Plateau, the released NOx observed recently in the sunlit snow/ice-cover is 1-order magnitude more than that in polar regions, but further scientific research is still needed to reveal its impact on the atmospheric oxidizing capacity. Wang, F., W. Lin, J. Wang, et al., 2011: NOx release from snow and ice covered surface in polar regions and the Tibetan Plateau. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00141.

Spatio-temporal changes of exposure and vulnerability to floods in China

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09:03 +0200

A socio-economic data set on Chinas historical flood losses for the period 1984–2012 was compiled to analyze the exposed population, economy, and crop area as well as the vulnerabilities of the population and economy to floods. The results revealed that the exposed population was approximately 126 persons km−2 per year when taking China as a whole, in terms of the economy, potential losses due to floods were estimated to be approximately 1.49 million CN¥ km−2 and the crop area exposed to floods covered 153 million hm2 per year. Chinas total exposure to floods significantly increased over the analysis period. The areas that showed the higher exposure were mainly located along the east coast. The populations vulnerability to floods showed a significantly increasing trend, however, the economic vulnerability showed a decreasing trend. The populations and economies that were most vulnerable to floods were in Hunan, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangxi, and Hubei provinces. The municipalities of Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin showed the lowest vulnerabilities to floods.

Estimate of Chinas energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:08:46 +0200

Chinas energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions: 1) Chinas gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030, 2) coals share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030, 3) non-fossil energys share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030, 4) through 2030, Chinas GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%, 5) the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average, and 6) the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. Chinas electricity generating capacity would be 1, 990 GW, with 8, 600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3, 170 GW with 11, 900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and relatively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020–2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in Chinas energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.

Future Earth activities in China: Towards a national sustainable development

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:08:39 +0200

This article provides an overview to Future Earth activities carried out by the Chinese National Committee for Future Earth (CNC-FE). Future Earth is an international research programme which aims to provide critical knowledge to face the challenges posed by global environmental change and to identify opportunities for a transition to global sustainability. CNC-FE is the main body devoted to implementing the Future Earth programme in China. Incorporating Future Earth themes and national science needs, CNC-FE has identified 14 priority areas. Since its establishment, it has conducted an array of activities to fulfill its missions, including implementing projects, convening international meetings, translating and publishing Future Earth and CNC-FE related documents and promoting Future Earth and CNC-FE on various outreach occasions. CNC-FE closely follows Future Earths development and meanwhile integrates its themes with Chinese practice. It is hoped that implementing Future Earth in China can boost global environmental change including climate change research in China and also have positive implications for developing countries who are trying to adapt to climate change and address the challenges for the national sustainable development.

Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 12:08:28 +0200

Based on simulations using the University of Victorias Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by 4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantics ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 . Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the oceans ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

Metric of Carbon Equity: Carbon Gini Index Based on Historical Cumulative Emission per Capita

Scipedia content — Mon, 15 May 2017 11:31:56 +0200

This paper uses Lorenz curve and Gini index with adjustment to per capita historical cumulative emission to construct carbon Gini index to measure inequality in climate change area. The analysis shows that 70% of carbon space in the atmosphere has been used for unequal distribution, which is almost the same as that of incomes in a country with the biggest gap between the rich and the poor in the world. The carbon equity should be an urgency and priority in the climate agenda. Carbon Gini index established in this paper can be used to measure inequality in the distribution of carbon space and provide a quantified indicator for measurement of carbon equity among different proposals. Teng, F., J. He, X. Pan, et al., 2011: Metric of carbon equity: Carbon Gini index based on historical cumulative emission per capita. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2(3), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00134.