Abstract

Abstract

The seismic risk evaluation usually works with a fragmented concept of risk, which depends on the scientific discipline in charge of the assessment. To achieve an effective performance of the risk management, it is necessary to define risk as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences due to a hazardous phenomenon in a period of time. This article presents a methodology which evaluates the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, which means, it takes into account the expected physical damage and also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second order effects when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. This seeks to obtain results which are useful in the decision making process for risk reduction. The proposed method for urban seismic risk evaluation uses the fuzzy sets theory in order to handle qualitative concepts and variables involved in the assessment, the physical risk level and aggravation level, related to the social fragility and the lack of resilience, are evaluated and finally a total risk level is determinate.

Abstract

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socioeconomic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).

Abstract

Digital transformation is one of Russia’s national goals and development objectives. Therefore, monitoring sociological studies aimed at collecting public perceptions of effectiveness and risks of government digitalization are highly relevant. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effects of government digitalization from the public perspective. The subject of the study is the interaction between the state (public authorities and state institutions) and citizens with the use of digital technologies during the performance of publicly relevant government functions. The primary method of the study is a representative sociological public survey. The results presented in the paper contain an evaluation of the effectiveness of government digitalization from the citizens’ perspective, an analysis of the public readiness to engage in digital interaction with the public authorities as well as an evaluation of the risks associated with government digitalization, as perceived by the public. The paper demonstrates that a vast majority of Russians (88.2 percent) have engaged in digital interaction with the state over the past year. The study concludes that while overall evaluation of government digitalization effectiveness in terms of improving governance quality is positive, some areas are more problematic. For instance, less than a quarter of the respondents feels that the use of digital technology has improved the quality of education. Despite significant experience in digital interaction with the state, most respondents are not always ready to choose the digital channel for every issue. The choice of digital channel over other possible interaction means mostly depends on digital skills. The respondents evaluate the risks associated with government digitalization as high. Better educated respondents with higher digital skills are more likely to note that government digitalization risks are substantial, compared to other citizens. The novelty of the study is related to developing and implementing sociological instruments for measuring effectiveness and risks of government digitalization as perceived by the public. The paper recommends to account for the public evaluation of digital government effectiveness and risks while planning and implementing the government’s digital transformation initiatives at the federal and at the regional level.