Abstract

A quantitative risk analysis is presented for a gas pipeline system in the province of Córdoba, Argentina. This is a part of a project on the vulnerability of infrastructure and physical environment associated with the storage and transport of combustible fluids. The developed model considers the identification of threats to the integrity of the pipelines, an estimate of the probabilities of failure of the identified threats, an estimate of the consequences of a failure, the determination and evaluation of the quantitative risk according to acceptance criteria, and the adoption of risk mitigation and control measures. For this study, the main data from the existing backbone network and the recently built gas pipelines in the province of Córdoba are used. This is complemented with a survey of the constructions near the route of the sections under study, as well as the crossings of roads and watercourses, based on available satellite images. The work is focused on establishing the individual and social quantitative risk levels of the gas pipelines with the highest qualitative risk level, already defined by previous work. Finally, and in the necessary cases, the adoption of mitigation measures is considered to adjust the risk levels to the international acceptance criteria.  A quantitative risk analysis is presented for a gas pipeline system in the province of Córdoba, Argentina. This is a part of a project on the vulnerability of infrastructure and physical environment associated with the storage and transport of combustible fluids. The developed model considers the identification of threats to the integrity of the pipelines, an estimate of the probabilities of failure of the identified threats, an estimate of the consequences of a failure, the determination and evaluation of the quantitative risk according to acceptance criteria, and the adoption of risk mitigation and control measures. For this study, the main data from the existing backbone network and the recently built gas pipelines in the province of Córdoba are used. This is complemented with a survey of the constructions near the route of the sections under study, as well as the crossings of roads and watercourses, based on available satellite images. The work is focused on establishing the individual and social quantitative risk levels of the gas pipelines with the highest qualitative risk level, already defined by previous work. Finally, and in the necessary cases, the adoption of mitigation measures is considered to adjust the risk levels to the international acceptance criteria.