Abstract

The present analysis addresses the primary balance response to the debt of the Spanish Autonomous Communities (ACs) from 1987 to 2015. Overall, the results of this study provide evidence on a nonlinear relationship, which point to a situation of fiscal fatigue and reduced fiscal space. The empirical framework builds mainly on the works of Bohn (1998) and Gosh et al. (2013), thereby focusing also on uncertainty issues. In 2015 the debt ratio stood at 26.8% of ACs’ Gross Value Added, slightly above our estimates for the lower limit (24%) and well below the upper limit (36%). These results have a backward-looking orientation, that is, fiscal reaction for the coming years is not necessarily determined by past behaviour. That being said, a reduced fiscal space of ACs calls for measures to ensure a sustainable debt trajectory and regain some room to deal with potential negative shocks.

Abstract

L’elevat endeutament públic és un dels llegats de la gran crisi, i en especial pel que fa a les comunitats autònomes. Aquesta situació és especialment preocupant atesa la responsabilitat d’aquestes en la prestació de serveis bàsics de l’estat del benestar. Els treballs de Bohn (1998) i Gosh et al. (2013) ens permeten plantejar una aproximació al llindar on la sostenibilitat del deute pot ser qüestionada. L’any 2015 la ràtio del deute se situava a la banda baixa de la regió que comprèn aquest llindar, en concret, entre el 24% i el 36% del VAB. La prudència aconsella disposar d’un marge de maniobra suficient (en termes de capacitat d’endeutament) per poder afrontar xocs negatius plausibles.

Abstract

The relevance of the analysis of debt sustainability is explained by the need to preserve the state's borrowing capacity under the increasing risk of non-fulfillment of debt obligations. A decrease in the borrowing potential during the economic downturn reduces the overall potential of countercyclical fiscal policy. The purpose of the study is to develop recommendations to regional public authorities on the implementation of a balanced debt policy based on a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of debt policy in Russia and countries of the world at the subnational level and to identify the causes, opportunities and limitations of regional loans. The object of the study is the subnational units of countries of the world and their budget and debt policy. The hypothesis of the study was that intergovernmental transfers, but not debt, are the main tool for overcoming negative crisis phenomena at the regional level. According to the results obtained, budget loans, being initially an instrument of debt policy, in fact, has become a new type of intergovernmental transfers. An additional problem is that this creates increased uncertainty for fiscal policy at the regional level. Debt instruments are increasingly becoming the mechanism of intergovernmental relations that reduces the efficiency of the functioning of the budget system as a whole. The novelty of the study consists in detecting significant risks of loss of debt sustainability at the regional level of Russia, despite the low nominal size of the state debt of the regions and measures undertaken at the federal level. The presentation of the theoretical foundations and the conducted diagnostic of regional public finance system allowed us to formulate measures towards further improvement of the measures of the federal policy of regulating the debt sustainability of the regions. Research methodology: review of analytical materials, structural and substantive analysis of regulatory legal acts at the federal and regional levels of countries of the world, comparative analysis of international debt policy experience, systematization of debt policy instruments used in Russia and abroad, development of scientific and practical recommendations.

Abstract

The research work is devoted to the comprehensive monitoring of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation regions for 9 months of 2022. The relevance and practical significance of the study lies in the need for constant monitoring and diagnostics of the socioeconomic situation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as in certain key types of territories due to changes in the socio-economic situation during the pandemic and the growth of sanctions pressure in 2022. The monitoring carried out makes it possible to comprehensively assess the risks of socio-economic development of the country's regions and identify subjects that require increased attention from the federal executive authorities. The main aim of the study: to assess the changes in the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation in 2021-2022 for the purposes of transforming the state policy in the field of spatial development. In accordance with this aim, the following tasks were determined to be solved within the framework of the study: to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and level of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2020-2022; analyze and identify the existing disproportions in the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The following were used as key research methods: statistical analysis, economic analysis, mapping and GIS analysis, methods for constructing infographics and comparative analysis. Based on the monitoring results, it was determined that significant changes have occurred in the economic and social development of the regions over the past year. It has been established that according to the results of 9 months of 2022, the territories that were the leaders or the middle peasants in terms of the level of socio-economic development in previous years, as well as those regions that are characterized by a protracted systemic crisis, turned out to be in the worst situation. It is expected that at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 there will be a gradual deterioration of the socio-economic situation, which will be associated with a further expansion of the geography of the recession, which will be accompanied not so much by an increase in negative dynamics in the economy, but by an increase in social problems.