Abstract

The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2 °C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target, however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC) concerning the investment required to realize the 2 °C scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2 °C scenario could reach CN¥1.2 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN¥1.6 trillion by 2020, CN¥1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in end-use sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN¥2.8 trillion by 2020, CN¥2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN¥2.9 trillion by 2050. These investments account for 2.5% of Chinas total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.

Abstract

The 21st Conference of Party (COP21) held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties) that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content, 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC, 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2, 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

Abstract

In 2011, we observed how “graceful failure” through planned destruction of portions of the Birds Point Levee by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was enacted to alleviate extreme flooding on the Mississippi River. This action, while flooding thousands of acres of croplands as intended, reduced flooding and potential damage to waterway infrastructure and populated communities downstream. Recent trends and future climatic projections indicate that we will have more of these “extreme” flooding situations in our future. Therefore, this project focused on exploring the potential feasibility to utilize other locations along the inland waterway system where “graceful failure” or planned breach of levees may be used as a means of flood protection for downstream communities and infrastructure. Spatial analysis techniques were used with development of specific criteria to screen national-level data sets to identify probable locations for such mitigative approaches. The criteria were primarily focused on identifying non-urbanized, non-developed land where intentional flooding for storage of flood waters would minimize impacts. Each location that was identified as a potential candidate was further evaluated for capacity for flood water detention. A consolidated set of areas were identified that could provide some storage capacity for flood mitigation. Additional engineering and localized analysis would be necessary to vet the areas for actual storage implementation. However, this study provides an example of an unconventional approach to flood mitigation on inland waterways which could reduce the need for disaster response and assist in transportation planning during extreme flood conditions.