Abstract

Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios. Document type: Part of book or chapter of book

Abstract

Climate change and CO2 emissions is an important issue on the agenda of many politicians. Trying to decrease CO2 emissions, influences transportation, power production, etc. The power system is characterised by an increasing amount of renewables, with one of the most expanding renewable power sources being wind. Wind energy is fluctuating by nature, calling for increasing flexibility elsewhere in the energy system. For Denmark, hydro power from Norway help stabilizing the system, as does export of excess wind to Germany, although the latter is decreasing in use because of large correlations between high wind production in northern Germany and western Denmark. To decrease CO2 emissions through a decrease in the use of fossil fuelled plants, along with an increase the amount of renewable energy, the power system needs more flexibility such as flexible demands, storage etc. Flexibility could also come from the road transport system. Counting for 24% of the CO2 emissions in Denmark in 2009, the road transport system needs to move towards, e.g. electric drive vehicles. However, the electric drive vehicles are also demanding electricity from the power system. This brings both challenges and opportunities to the power system. One challenge is, that intelligence is needed unless peak-load is to increase drastically. With intelligent charging of the vehicles, though, the electric drive vehicles can be of great benefit providing flexible demand and charging at night time, instead of being regarded as yet another load and challenge for the energy system. Furthermore, discharging of vehicles can provide services to the power system. The batteries in the electric drive vehicles are batteries invested in anyway. Hence, why not use these actively for cheap storage by the energy system? Furthermore, the use of vehicles are opposite to the remaining demand for energy; e.g. while people are making dinner their vehicles will often be parked, being able to deliver back-up power - again, a great opportunity for the power system. In this PhD project I have focussed on modelling and analysis of a future integrated transport and power system. An integrated power and transport system enables analyses of the interactions between different parts of the energy system. The object of interest is an optimal configuration of an integrated power and transport system as well as I will be focussing on the drawbacks and benefits for the power system incorporating an electrified transport system. I have performed analyses in terms of integrating more renewable energy, for both Denmark as an isolated system and for the northern European countries including Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Germany. The analyses are performed using the deterministic energy systems analysis model, Balmorel. Furthermore, analyses have been made for the Irish power system on the influence of introducing electric drive vehicles in a predefined power system, using the stochastic energy systems analysis model, Wilmar. Interesting is, that it turns out to be most profitable to invest in enough wind to more than cover the electrified transport in Denmark. This holds, both when modelling Denmark as an isolated country, and when including the interactions between the Nordic countries. Furthermore, analyses show that fuel cell electric vehicles are not yet ready for competing with the other vehicle types. This is, among other things, due the technologies not being cheap enough, thus, the development is not expected to have reached a competitive stage. Another interesting finding is the results showing that it is beneficial for Ireland to have electric drive vehicles in terms of both costs and CO2 emissions. However, introducing the electric drive vehicles in Ireland, imply an increase in both costs and CO2 in the Great British side, as most of the power for the vehicles is produced on British coal power plants. Thus, focusing nationally, Ireland should invest in the electric drive vehicles, although, on an international level, the investments are costly. Document type: Book