Abstract

Climate change and CO2 emissions is an important issue on the agenda of many politicians. Trying to decrease CO2 emissions, influences transportation, power production, etc. The power system is characterised by an increasing amount of renewables, with one of the most expanding renewable power sources being wind. Wind energy is fluctuating by nature, calling for increasing flexibility elsewhere in the energy system. For Denmark, hydro power from Norway help stabilizing the system, as does export of excess wind to Germany, although the latter is decreasing in use because of large correlations between high wind production in northern Germany and western Denmark. To decrease CO2 emissions through a decrease in the use of fossil fuelled plants, along with an increase the amount of renewable energy, the power system needs more flexibility such as flexible demands, storage etc. Flexibility could also come from the road transport system. Counting for 24% of the CO2 emissions in Denmark in 2009, the road transport system needs to move towards, e.g. electric drive vehicles. However, the electric drive vehicles are also demanding electricity from the power system. This brings both challenges and opportunities to the power system. One challenge is, that intelligence is needed unless peak-load is to increase drastically. With intelligent charging of the vehicles, though, the electric drive vehicles can be of great benefit providing flexible demand and charging at night time, instead of being regarded as yet another load and challenge for the energy system. Furthermore, discharging of vehicles can provide services to the power system. The batteries in the electric drive vehicles are batteries invested in anyway. Hence, why not use these actively for cheap storage by the energy system? Furthermore, the use of vehicles are opposite to the remaining demand for energy; e.g. while people are making dinner their vehicles will often be parked, being able to deliver back-up power - again, a great opportunity for the power system. In this PhD project I have focussed on modelling and analysis of a future integrated transport and power system. An integrated power and transport system enables analyses of the interactions between different parts of the energy system. The object of interest is an optimal configuration of an integrated power and transport system as well as I will be focussing on the drawbacks and benefits for the power system incorporating an electrified transport system. I have performed analyses in terms of integrating more renewable energy, for both Denmark as an isolated system and for the northern European countries including Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Germany. The analyses are performed using the deterministic energy systems analysis model, Balmorel. Furthermore, analyses have been made for the Irish power system on the influence of introducing electric drive vehicles in a predefined power system, using the stochastic energy systems analysis model, Wilmar. Interesting is, that it turns out to be most profitable to invest in enough wind to more than cover the electrified transport in Denmark. This holds, both when modelling Denmark as an isolated country, and when including the interactions between the Nordic countries. Furthermore, analyses show that fuel cell electric vehicles are not yet ready for competing with the other vehicle types. This is, among other things, due the technologies not being cheap enough, thus, the development is not expected to have reached a competitive stage. Another interesting finding is the results showing that it is beneficial for Ireland to have electric drive vehicles in terms of both costs and CO2 emissions. However, introducing the electric drive vehicles in Ireland, imply an increase in both costs and CO2 in the Great British side, as most of the power for the vehicles is produced on British coal power plants. Thus, focusing nationally, Ireland should invest in the electric drive vehicles, although, on an international level, the investments are costly. Document type: Book

Abstract

During 2018, the Public Transport Administration (Trafikförvaltningen) in the Stockholm region spent approximately 2.2 billion SEK on new infrastructure investments related to the public transport system, many of which were based on their public transport models. The previously used method for validating these models has lacked scientific rigour, efficiency and a systematic approach, which has led to uncertainty in decision making. Furthermore, few scientific studies have been conducted to develop validation methodologies for large-scale models, such as public transport models. For these reasons, a scientific validation methodology for public transport models has been developed in this thesis. This validation methodology has been applied on the 2014 route assignment model used by Trafikförvaltningen, for the transport modes bus, commuter train and local tram. In the developed validation methodology, the selected validation metrics called MAPE, %RMSE and R^2 are used to compare link loads from a route assignment model with observed link loads from an Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) system. To obtain an overview of the performance of the route assignment model, eight different scenarios are set, based on whether the validation metrics meet acceptable thresholds or not. In the application of the developed validation methodology, the average link loads for the morning rush have been validated. To adjust the developed validation methodology to system-specific factors and to set acceptable metric thresholds, discussions with model practitioners have taken place. The validation has been performed on both lines and links, and for bus entire line number series have been validated as well. The validation results show that commuter train meets the set threshold values in a higher proportion than bus and local tram do. However, Trafikförvaltningen is recommended to further calibrate the route assignment model in order to achieve a better model performance. The developed validation methodology can be used for validation of public transport models, and can in combination with model calibration be used in an iterative process to fine-tune model parameters for optimising validation results. Finally, a number of recommendations are proposed for Trafikförvaltningen to increase the efficiency and quality of the validation process, such as synchronising model data with the observed data. Under 2018 spenderade Trafikförvaltningen ungefär 2,2 miljarder kronor på nya infrastrukturinvesteringar för kollektivtrafiksystemet i Stockholm, varav många av dessa baserades på deras kollektivtrafikmodeller. Den tidigare metoden för att valideras dessa modeller har saknat gedigen vetenskaplig grund, effektivitet och ett systematiskt tillvägagångssätt, vilket lett till osäkerhet gällande investeringsbeslut. Dessutom har få vetenskapliga studier genomförts för att ta fram valideringsmetodologier för storskaliga modeller, såsom kollektivtrafikmodeller. Av dessa skäl har en vetenskaplig valideringsmetodologi för kollektivtrafikmodeller tagits fram i detta examensarbete. Denna valideringsmetodologi har tillämpats på Trafikförvaltningens 2014 års nätutläggningsmodell, för trafikslagen buss, pendeltåg och spårväg. I den framtagna valideringsmetodologin har de valda valideringsmåtten vid namn MAPE, %RMSE och R^2 använts för att jämföra länkbelastningar från en nätutläggningsmodell med observerade länkbelastningar från ett Automatisk Trafikanträkning-system (ATR). För att ge en översikt över modellens precision har åtta scenarios satts baserat på om valideringsmåtten godkänns eller inte enligt tröskelvärden. I tillämpningen av den framtagna valideringsmetodologin har de genomsnittliga länkbelastningarna för morgonens rusningstrafik validerats. För att justera den framtagna valideringsmetodologin efter systemspecifika faktorer och för att sätta godkända tröskelvärden för valideringsmåtten, har diskussioner med trafikanalytiker hållits. Valideringen har utförts både på linjer och länkar, och för buss har även hela linjeserier validerats. Valideringsresultaten för pendeltåg har en högre andel godkända mätningar än buss och spårväg. Trafikförvaltningen rekommenderas dock att kalibrera nätutläggningsmodellen ytterligare för att uppnå ett bättre resultat. Den framtagna valideringsmetodologin kan användas för valideringar av kollektivtrafikmodeller, och kan i kombination med modellkalibrering användas i en iterativ process för att finjustera modellparametrar och därmed optimera valideringsresultaten. Slutligen föreslås ett antal rekommendationer för Trafikförvaltningen för att öka effektiviteten och kvaliteten på valideringsprocessen, till exempel att synkronisera modelldata med observerad data.

Abstract

In the context of land use planning, Maryland has attracted significant attention at the national scale for innovative planning efforts. In 1997, Maryland passed a package of legislation collectively referred to as ‘smart growth’. Distinct from earlier regulatory state level attempts to alter development patterns in states like Oregon and Florida, this approach relied on incentives to influence development patterns. This innovative ‘inside/outside’ approach to managing growth relies on targeting state funding to encourage growth and investment in existing urbanized areas and areas planned for development (Priority Funding Areas [PFAs]) while discouraging growth and encouraging the preservation of rural areas (Rural Legacy Areas). Transportation funding for new projects or increased capacity must be directed into PFAs, constituting 85% of total funding on average from 1999 to 2008. Though the statute restricts the expenditure of state funds for transportation outside areas targeted for development, the statutes offer little explicit guidance regarding integrating transportation and land use policies. This article proposes that Smart Growth efforts could be even stronger if land-use policies were integrated more closely with transportation policies. The Maryland Statewide Transportation Model is applied to test the impact of various Smart Growth policies and transportation policies. The paper concludes that Smart Growth could have a bigger impact if transportation policies played a larger role. Document type: Article

Abstract

"jats:p"The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method. Document type: Article