Abstract

Resumen: La investigación desarrollada en esta tesis de maestría presenta una aplicación de la técnica de preferencias declaradas, para la construcción de un modelo de elección de modo de transporte entre carretera y ferrocarril para carga general susceptible a exportación-importación, aplicado a las empresas antioqueñas. Aunque el transporte de carga por carretera presenta muchos inconvenientes en el país, no existe un estudio que demuestre cuáles son las variables que influyen en la elección de un modo de transporte de carga en Antioquia, para saber si realmente sería útil un ferrocarril para la región. La investigación cualitativa se presenta en este estudio a través de las técnicas de grupo focal con las empresas importantes de la región, de esta manera se logran conocer las variables que influyen en la elección de un modo de transporte por parte de las empresas antioqueñas que exportan-importan mercancías, las cuales resultaron ser costo de la tonelada/km y frecuencia de servicio por semana. Uno de los aportes más importantes de este trabajo es calibrar un modelo de elección discreta con las variables identificadas que inciden en la elección de modo de transporte para movilizar carga por parte de las empresas antioqueñas, y estimar la influencia que tiene cada una de estas variables. Los resultados muestran que la probabilidad de captación en carga general del modo ferrocarril varía entre el 67.00% y el 92.66% cuando se compara con la carretera, en los tomadores de decisión de las empresas antioqueñas, según sea la variación de las variables influyentes en la elección de un modo de transporte (costo y frecuencia de servicio) desmintiendo la importancia de la variable tiempo de viaje, la cual por los tiempos muertos del cargue-descargue y espera en los puertos no es decisiva al comparar los dos modos. Otro aporte importante de esta investigación es el planteamiento de un trazado preliminar de un sistema férreo entre Medellín y Cartagena, el cual puede servir como base para realizar otros estudios de prefactibilidad para extraer costos y tiempos de este proyecto. Abstract: The developed research in this M.Sc. thesis, presents a technical application of stated preferences, for the construction of a choice modeling of a transportation mode between road and rail for general freight susceptible to exportation-importation, applied to the Antioquian companies. Although freight transportation by road has too many inconveniences in the country, doesn’t exist a study that shows what are the variables that influence the choice of transport mode in Antioquia, to know if really would be important a railroad for the region. Qualitative research presented in this study through focus group techniques with important companies of the region, so this way it's possible to know the variables that influence the choice of transportation mode by the companies of Antioquia that export-import merchandise, resulting cost and frequency the most important. One of the most important contributions in this job is to calibrate a discrete choice model with identified variables that identify the influence in the choice of a transportation mode to mobilize freight by the Antioquian companies, and estimate the influence that has each one of these variables. The results show that that the probability of the decision makers of the Antioquian companies choosing the railway mode varies between 67.00 % and 92.66 % when comparing with highway mode, to move general freight, and this depends on the variation of the influencing variables in the choice of a transportation mode (cost and service frequency), denying the importance of the variable travel time, which is not decisive to compare the two modes because the idle time at origin and ports. Another contribution in the present research is the approach of a preliminary layout of a rail system between Medellin and Cartagena, which can serve as a basis for other studies of feasibility to extract costs and times of this project.

Abstract

Traffic congestion has become a critical issue in developing countries, as it tends to increase social costs in terms of travel cost and time, energy consumption and environmental degradation. With limited resources, reducing travel demand by influencing individuals’ travel behavior can be a better long-term solution. To achieve this objective, alternate travel options need to be provided so that people can commute comfortably and economically. This study aims to identify key motives and constraints in the consideration of carpooling policy with the help of stated preference questionnaire survey that was conducted in Lahore City. The designed questionnaire includes respondents’ socioeconomic demographics, and intentions and stated preferences on carpooling policy. Factor analysis was conducted on travelers’ responses, and a structural model was developed for carpooling. Survey and modeling results reveal that social, environmental and economic benefits, disincentives on car use, preferential parking treatment for carpooling, and comfort and convenience attributes are significant determinants in promoting carpooling. However, people with strong belief in personal privacy, security, freedom in traveling and carpooling service constraints would have less potential to use the carpooling service. In addition, pro-auto and pro-carpooling attitudes, marital status, profession and travel purpose for carpooling are also underlying factors. The findings implicate that to promote carpooling policy it is required to consider appropriate incentives on this service and disincentives on use of private vehicle along with modification of people’s attitudes and intentions. Document type: Article