Abstract

Identifying the set of alternatives from which travellers choose their routes is a crucial step in estimation and application of route choice models. These models are necessary for the prediction of network flows that are vital for the planning of public transport networks. However, choice set identification is typically difficult because while selected routes are observed, those considered are not. Approaches proposed in literature are not completely satisfactory, either lacking transferability across networks (observation-driven methods) or requiring strong assumptions regarding traveller behaviour (uncalibrated choice set generation methodologies (CSGM)). Therefore, this study proposes a constrained enumeration CSGM that applies the non-compensatory decision model, elimination-by-Aspects, for choice set formation. Subjective assumptions of traveller preferences are avoided by calibrating the decision model using observed route choice behaviour from smart card data, which is becoming increasingly available in public transport systems around the world. The calibration procedure also returns two key insights regarding choice set formation behaviour: (i) the ranking of different attributes by their importance, and (ii) the acceptable detours for each attribute. To demonstrate the methodology and investigate choice set formation behaviour, the tram and bus networks of The Hague, Netherlands are used as a case study.

Abstract

There is substantial evidence to indicate that route choice in urban areas is complex cognitive process, conducted under uncertainty and formed on partial perspectives. Yet, conventional route choice models continue make simplistic assumptions around the nature of human cognitive ability, memory and preference. In this paper, a novel framework for route choice in urban areas is introduced, aiming to more accurately reflect the uncertain, bounded nature of route choice decision making. Two main advances are introduced. The first involves the definition of a hierarchical model of space representing the relationship between urban features and human cognition, combining findings from both the extensive previous literature on spatial cognition and a large route choice dataset. The second advance involves the development of heuristic rules for route choice decisions, building upon the hierarchical model of urban space. The heuristics describe the process by which quick, ‘good enough’ decisions are made when individuals are faced with uncertainty. This element of the model is once more constructed and parameterised according to findings from prior research and the trends identified within a large routing dataset. The paper outlines the implementation of the framework within a real-world context, validating the results against observed behaviours. Conclusions are offered as to the extension and improvement of this approach, outlining its potential as an alternative to other route choice modelling frameworks. Document type: Article

Abstract

Understanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700,000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning – being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research. Document type: Article

Abstract

The concept of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) is elegant and attractive because it provides a global view of traffic behavior and performance at a network level. However, recent research shows that the MFD shape can be influenced by local traffic heterogeneities. Notably, route choices and heterogeneous local capacities may drive uneven (in space) or inconsistent (in time) distributions of congestion and then affect the shape and the scatter of the MFD. We are far from having a global understanding of the connections between local phenomena and the resulting MFD. This paper first aims to improve existing MFD estimation method for a succession of links with traffic signals. The new method overcomes previous limitations, notably regarding to the topology and signal settings regularities, by fully utilizing the receipts of the variational theory. Then, a single network with several parallel routes is investigated. MFDs on different routes are estimated with the variational method and then aggregated in a unified MFD for stationary and dynamic conditions and different sorts of equilibria (user and system optimum). It appears that the flow distribution among routes smoothly varies with respect to the total flow either in free-flow or congestion situations. Such a distribution is much more rough for system optimum, where it presents some discontinuities and is far from equity. This means that a control strategy able to lead such a network to the perfect system optimum would be hard to tune, especially in the congested regime. However, being able to determine the MFD corresponding to the system optimum provides a valuable reference to estimate the current efficiency of the considered network. Case studies for different simple networks and insights for generalization at the city level are proposed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Document type: Article

Abstract

Traffic congestion is a common phenomenon in road transportation networks, especially during peak hours. More accurate prediction of dynamic traffic flows is very important for traffic control and management. However, disturbances caused by the time-varying origin-destination matrix, dynamic route choices, and disruptions make the modelling of traffic flows difficult. Therefore, this study focuses on modelling the dynamic evolution processes of traffic flows under disturbances and estimating dynamic travel times for arbitrary moment. A revised Lighthill–Whitham–Richards (RLWR) model with non-equilibrium states is presented to describe the dynamic traffic states on individual roads, and the ripple-spreading model (RSM) is integrated to investigate the interactions among several shockwaves from multiple roads. We propose a hybrid RLWR–RSM to model the congestion and congestion-recovery propagations in an entire transportation network. After predicting the dynamic traffic flows by the RLWR–RSM, the road travel times for arbitrary moment were estimated. Theoretical analyses indicated that (1) the RLWR–RSM inherits the advantages of macroscopic traffic flow models and integrates the characteristics of both low- and high-order continuum models, and (2) the RLWR–RSM considers multiple disturbances. From numerical experiments with various inputs, the variation in travel times under disturbances was investigated, and this further demonstrated that (1) the modelled dynamic traffic flows have four basic properties, and (2) the experimental results validate the theoretical analyses. In addition, the RLWR–RSM can explain several distinct traffic phenomena. Finally, the estimated travel times can provide decision supports for vehicle navigation. Keywords Traffic flow Disturbance Time-varying OD Route choice Network disruption Dynamic travel time

Abstract

Information-based demand measures using social routing advice are receiving increasing attention, as they are expected to be successful in reducing the traffic congestion. Such measures direct travelers toward routes that benefit the road network. As such, some travelers need to act socially and take a detour. This paper explores the impacts on network performance and equity that result from the application of a social routing service. We complement the existing work by using a large-scale real-world road network, by assessing impacts on the individual level and by discussing our findings in the light of observed individual compliance behavior obtained from a field experiment. Our results show that 3.6% of total travel time within our road network could be reduced when all trips are made in compliance with the received advice. However, based on the observed compliance behavior, a social routing service is expected to direct only a minority of travelers toward social routes. We show how the attained travel time savings vary with the assumed compliance rate, e.g., to achieve 50% of the potential travel time savings, about 30% of travelers need to be willing to take a detour. Moreover, we find that lower the compliance among travelers, the more the social travelers need to compensate for the selfish behavior of others by taking longer detours. Finally, we demonstrate that the impacts on network performance and equity highly depend on the spatial distribution of social travelers among origins and destinations. Document type: Article