Abstract

El sector agroalimentari català ha demostrat, al llarg dels darrers cinquanta anys, una gran capacitat d’adaptació i creixement en un entorn de dificultat. Tanmateix el segle XXI obre un nou escenari amb noves exigències i nous condicionants. Ens trobem en un moment de grans canvis que requereixen, si més no, revisar les estratègies a fi d’assolir les vies apropiades per a un desenvolupament sostenible capaç de donar resposta als nous desafiaments. El document assenyala els aspectes crítics i proposa estratègies d’avenç al si d’un escenari complex i exigent.

Abstract

This document presents an analysis in the development of a new mathematical formulation with which it will be possible to determine, through probabilistic approaches, the cost that can be generated if a diversified electricity market existed, in which the demand is able to actively participate. For this, it is considered that the electrical demand in a moment of time has associated a probability distribution and a system that makes it controllable. The cost of uncertainty of demand is mathematically developed by calculating the expected cost of supplying the most convenient demand value for the power system. The validation of the analytical formula is done through the Monte Carlo method, which allows us to compare the penalty costs in the case of underestimating or overestimating the demand for electrical energy.