Abstract

Noxious diesel emissions far above official limits and the need to rapidly reduce-greenhouse gases generate widespread calls for banning fossil-fueled cars in Europe. This report shows that it is possible to electrify 50 per cent of all new cars in the EU by 2030.  This, however, requires massive investment in European battery production capacity, and a long-term commitment to sustainable supply of critical materials. In addition a large-scale expansion of the charging infrastructure is needed, in particular at home and at work places, which account for around 95 per cent of all battery charging. Moreover, local grids will need enforcement in most countries. The additional electricity demand must be satisfied at a time when many coal-fired and nuclear-based power plants will be decommissioned.  Plug-in hybrids, which combine a downsized combustion engine with an electric motor, will probably play an important role, both to relieve long-distance drivers of range anxiety and to reduce the demand for scarce virgin metals, in particular cobalt.  To make the shift happen, an EU-wide Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate needs to be established from 2025, with planned stringency increases every second year or so. Such a regulation is less vulnerable to budget restraints and changing relative prices than financial incentives. At the same time, the regulatory demands on manufacturers to reduce CO2 emissions from combustions engines need to become more stringent and apply to all combustion engines, including those in plug-in hybrids. Such a combination of policies will make it possible to realize the overall target of 50 per cent electrification of new cars in a robust and flexible way. "p"Financial support from Jan Wallander´s, Tom Hedelius' and Tore Browald´s research foundations at Svenska Handelsbanken, Stockholm.

Abstract

Biogas is largely utilised as vehicle fuel in public bus transport in Sweden today. This study investigates opportunities and barriers for continued domestic use and production of biogas, in relation to the ongoing electrification of public bus transport. The analysis is based on interviews with actors in public transport and the biogas sector, experts on biogas systems, and representatives for alternative user segments. Three regions were chosen as case-studies for investigations of prospects in public transport, i.e. Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne, though alternative uses were studied from a national perspective. In addition to public transport, considered uses include road transport, sea transport, industries, and electricity and heat production. The study identifies a broad agreement among stakeholders that renewable resources should be implemented where they provide most benefits from a system perspective. Therefore, electric public buses are valued in urban environments, while biogas solutions are found suitable for regional routes. Biogas is further viewed as environmentally beneficial in all user segments except continuous electricity and heat production, where it largely would replace renewable rather than fossil sources. Regarding costs and competitiveness, probable future uses are identified within light and heavy-duty road transport, and in consumer-oriented industries, i.e. the food industry. Economic support in policy instruments is further considered essential for continuous development of the Swedish biogas sector, though current influential instruments, e.g. the tax exemption, are described as short-term and unpredictable. The willingness to pay for the collected societal benefits of biogas further decrease in transitions from public to private consumers, and as biogas solutions simultaneously are linked with limited or uncertain competitiveness in these sectors, risks prevail that such transitions could imply stagnations and declines in biogas use and production, given today’s situation. Idag används biogas till stor del som drivmedel för bussar inom kollektivtrafik i Sverige. Denna studie undersöker möjligheter och hinder för en fortsatt nationell användning och produktion av biogas, i samband med att bussar inom kollektivtrafiken nu elektrifieras. Analysen är baserad på intervjuer med aktörer inom kollektivtrafiken och biogassektorn, sakkunniga inom biogas, och alternativa användare av biogas. Tre regioner, Stockholm, Västra Götaland och Skåne, valdes som fallstudier för analys av möjligheter för fortsatt användning inom kollektivtrafiken. Alternativa användningar studerades istället ur ett nationellt perspektiv, och inkluderade vägtransporter, sjöfart, industri och el- och värmeproduktion. Studien visar att det råder enighet mellan intervjupersoner att förnybara resurser över lag ska användas där de medför störst samhällsnytta sett till samhället i stort. Inom kollektivtrafiken beskrivs elbussar därför som fördelaktiga i stadsmiljöer, medan biogas ses som lämpligt i regional trafik. Biogas framställs dessutom som miljömässigt fördelaktigt i alla alternativa användningsområden utom kontinuerlig el- och värmeproduktion, eftersom då främst förnybara och inte fossila resurser ersätts. Med hänsyn till kostnader och konkurrenskraft ses lätta och tunga transporter tillsammans med kundnära industrier, t.ex. livsmedelsindustrin, som troliga framtida användningsområden för biogas. Ekonomiskt stöd från styrmedel bedöms vara nödvändigt för en fortsatt utveckling av biogassektorn i Sverige, även om dagens styrmedel, t.ex. skattebefrielsen, beskrivs som kortsiktiga och oförutsägbara. Betalningsviljan för biogasens samlade samhällsnyttor minskar också vid en övergång från offentliga till privata kunder. Eftersom biogas därtill har en begränsad eller osäker konkurrenskraft jämtemot andra alternativ i de privata segmenten, identifierar denna studie risker för stagnation eller nedgång i användning och produktion av biogas vid en eventuell utfasning från den offentliga sektorn, givet dagens situation.