Abstract

A method for probabilistic simulation of a bare printed circuit board fixed with bolted joints based on hierarchical Bayesian updating of a numerical model is presented in this paper. The objective is the determination of parameter uncertainties in a set of nominally identical boards and the propagation of these uncertainties to calculate probability distributions for the behavior of the mechanical system. The numerical model of the system is split into models for the circuit board, the bolts and a contact model that are updated separately.