Abstract

Future air traffic management relies on trajectory forecasting for higher safety, efficiency and environmental friendliness. The quality of trajectory predictions is subject to errors from a variety of sources. These errors in parameters cause inaccuracies in the calculations of the flight trajectories. Therefore the implementation of the future trajectory-based air traffic management requires decision support tools as well as reporting tools to analyze and predict uncertainties in actual flight paths. The Institute of Flight Guidance of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) is one of the leading establishments in the field of air traffic management and conducts research with focus on trajectories based on simulation systems. These simulations are strongly focused on generating scientific data which are evaluated subsequent to the campaign. To be able to evaluate the simulations, we developed a concept for the calculation and visualization of the trajectory prediction uncertainty. The concept is implemented as a component into DLR’s evaluation environment “Extensible Workflow Management for Simulations'' (EWMS) and validated using simulation scenarios. The most important factors for trajectory prediction, which are analyzed for the theoretical concept, are meteorological parameters (wind, temperature), aircraft performance (weight, speed) and navigation performance. Finally, the study applies error analysis to a sample collection of over 2,000 flights under various environmental conditions. The uncertainty of an aircraft position can be described in terms of temporal or spatial metrics by three-dimensional ellipsoids. For the processing in computer scientific systems the error data are classified and the possibilities of visualization in diagrams and geo systems are evaluated. For the representation of scalar errors charts generated by JFreeChart-Tool are suitable. NASA World Wind is used for the geographical visualization of trajectories and their errors. The concept implemented in EWMS enables the user to load fast-time simulation results from the TrafficSim-tool, calculate and compare trajectory uncertainties, and to visualize the results in diagrams as well as in the 3D NASA World Wind environment. The developed calculation and visualization routines provide the ability to analyze trajectory-based air traffic management concepts, as well as support decision-making in air traffic control.

Abstract

This presentation first offers a conceptual definition as well as differentiation of the conditions robustness, resilience and vulnerability within the air traffic management (ATM) framework in order to estimate the impact of disruptions. In a second step focus is laid on extreme weather events such as heavy winds, freezing conditions, heat waves or fog with greatest relevance to the aviation system. Based on causal diagrams their impact on the system´s performance and in consequence the operational reaction patterns are elaborated. Findings lead to a roadmap addressing issues such as approaches on how to increase the resilience and robustness of airports, intermodal aspects (especially the use of high speed trains as alternatives to air transport in case of disruptions) and the assistance of travelers in terms of rearranging their journeys.

Abstract

International audience; Personal and unmanned aerial vehicles have received increasing media attention over the last decade. As a result of the growing excitement for these two aircraft types, many within and outside the aerospace industry envision a future in which large numbers of small aircraft fly over urban areas. With this vision for the future, the question arises what would be required, in terms of airspace organization, to make this feasible, or in deed, if it will be possible at all. In this context, the Metropolis project aims to investigate the influence of airspace structure on capacity, complexity, safety, and efficiency for high - density airspace. To this end, four airspace concepts, ranging fro m a decentralized direct routing concept, to a highly structured tube network using 4D trajectory - based operations, have been considered. The four concepts were compared by means of large - scale simulation experiments, for multiple scenarios that are extrem e when compared to current air traffic densities. This paper presents an overview of the Metropolis project with a focus on the project objectives, design and implementation of airspace concepts, and preliminary simulation results.

Abstract

Weather events have a significant impact on airport performance and cause delayed operations if the airport capacity is constrained. We provide quantification of the individual airport performance with regards to an aggregated weather-performance metric. Specific weather phenomena are categorized by the air traffic management airport performance weather algorithm, which aims to quantify weather conditions at airports based on aviation routine meteorological reports. Our results are computed from a data set of 20.5 million European flights of 2013 and local weather data. A methodology is presented to evaluate the impact of weather events on the airport performance and to select the appropriate threshold for significant weather conditions. To provide an efficient method to capture the impact of weather, we modelled departing and arrival delays with probability distributions, which depend on airport size and meteorological impacts. These derived airport performance scores could be used in comprehensive air traffic network simulations to evaluate the network impact caused by weather induced local performance deterioration. Document type: Article