Abstract

Over the last decade maritime transport in the Gulf of Finland area has changed significantly. The disintegration of the Soviet Union forced Russia to start developing its own Baltic ports and terminals and to find new routes to export its oil. The Baltic States have enjoyed a remarkable economic boom, especially regarding new port and terminal development and oil transportation. Due to the fact the Gulf of Finland is a sensitive brackish water area with a unique nature and environment, there has been a growing concern with accidental oil spills and various negative impacts caused by the maritime transport. Previous large-scale accidents elsewhere may have been the driving forces behind both the publicity and the calls from experts for new requirements to improve maritime safety and develop preventive measures against future accidents. This report, commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of the Environment is an updated report of the earlier study on the Gulf of Finland's oil transport, published in 1999. The rapid changes in the oil business, new terminals and enlarging transport figures were the driving forces for updating this work. The report contains statistics on oil transport, terminal development, and it presents future development scenarios up to 2010. Much emphasis has been placed on safety-related activities and recommendation; therefore current activities to improve the safety and/or develop better oil spillage-combating measures have also been analysed and discussed.

Abstract

Maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland has grown remarkably during the 2000s. This increase has an impact on the environment and exposes it to risks. These problems should be controlled to guarantee sustainable development and the welfare of inhabitants in the area. A method for estimating the impact of ship-originated air emissions on the environment is to calculate their environmental externalities which are a part of the total marginal social costs of shipping. The internalization of externalities as a control method of transport would comply with the polluter pays principle and act as a fair traffic control method between transport modes. In this paper, we present the results of CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions originating from ships and their externalities in the Gulf of Finland up to 2015. The calculation algorithm developed for this study produces emission estimates per annum and converts them into externalities. We focus on passenger, tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessel ship types representing almost 90% of the total NOx emissions of shipping in the area. Scenario modelling is a method for estimating the effects of forthcoming or planned regulations and helps with targeting emission abatement actions to maximize their profit. The results of the calculation algorithm show that externalities can be used as a consultative tool for transport-related decision-making. The costs are given at the price levels of the year 2000. The total external cost of ship-originated CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions in the Gulf of Finland was almost €175 million in 2007. Due to increased traffic volumes, these costs will increase to nearly €214 million in 2015. The majority of externalities are produced by CO2 emissions. If we deduct CO2 externalities from the results, we get total externalities of €57 million in 2007. Following eight years (2015), externalities would be 28% or €41 million lower. This would be as a result of regulation reducing the sulphur content of marine fuels. Regulating SOx and PM emissions will slow down the increasing trend of shipborne externalities in the Gulf of Finland; however, the externalities are still growing. In order to achieve a downward trend, the two major compounds resulting in externalities must be reduced, which requires strict actions to lower shipborne CO2 and NOx emissions. First Published Online: 30 Mar 2012

Abstract

This paper covers the current state of maritime oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and the development of oil transportation in the 2000s, as well as estimations of transported oil volumes in 2020 and 2030 in the Gulf of Finland. The scenarios were formulated on the basis of a current state analysis, energy and transportation strategies and scenarios and expert assessments. The study showed that the volumes of oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland will increase only moderately compared to the current status: 9.5-33.8 %, depending on the scenario. Green energy policy favours renewable energy sources, which can be seen in the smaller volumes of transported oil in the 2030 scenarios compared to the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.