Abstract

Load forecasts of short lead times ranging from an hour to a day ahead are essential for improving the economic efficiency and reliability of power systems. This paper proposes a hybrid model based on the wavelet transform (WT) and the weighted nearest neighbor (WNN) techniques to predict the day ahead electrical load. The WT is used to decompose the load series into deterministic series and fluctuation series that reflect the changing dynamics of data. The two subseries are then separately forecast using appropriately fitted WNN models. The final forecast is obtained by composing the predicted results of each subseries. The hourly electrical load of California and Spanish energy markets are taken as experimental data and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Weekly MAPE (WMAPE) and Monthly MAPE (MMAPE) are computed to evaluate the forecasting performance of the next-day load forecasts. The forecasting efficiency of the proposed model is evaluated using db2, db4, db5 and bior 3.1 wavelets. The results demonstrate the forecasting accuracy of the proposed hybrid model.

Abstract

The flow pattern in supersonic nozzles is defined by the aerodynamic profiles of the geometry of the internal walls, among other parameters, the throat being a critical section. In the present work, the objective is to analyze the behavior of the flow in the straight section of the throat of an experimental conical nozzle of a solid fuel probe rocket engine. The over-expanded flow was simulated with the ANSYS-Fluent code in a 2D computational domain, using the RANS model and the Menter turbulence model, and the Sutherland equation for viscosity as a function of the temperature. Five case studies were performed for the throat length in the range of 1-10 mm. Fluctuations of Mach number, pressure and temperature, oblique shock waves in the throat section were obtained for the length of 10 mm; for shorter lengths the intensity of the shock magnitude decreased. It is concluded that, for the throat length of 1 mm, the flow is transonic without the presence of oblique shocks. In the diverging section, shock waves vary in intensity and change position.