Abstract

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the effects of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy on the Eurasian Economic Union members. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, economic integration implies coordination in macroeconomic policy; second, fluctuations of Russian economy as the biggest economy in the region cause fluctuations in the whole EAEU, changing the flows of goods and resources. The purpose of this paper is to identify key effects and channels of cross-border transmission of Bank of Russia’s monetary policy under changing monetary regimes of the EAEU countries. For the empirical model we use quarterly data on EAEU key macroeconomic indicators from 2000 to 2021, the basic method is block-exogenous structural vector autoregression. Our results show that interest rate channel plays the key role in cross-border transmission of monetary policy effects in the region. The exception is the case when the recipient’s country central bank employs fixed exchange rate regime, rendering international interest rate channel ineffective. Another important channel is international trade: monetary policy tightening leads to the contraction of demand for the imported goods, so the exports of the recipient countries decrease. We conclude that despite heterogenous response among the EAEU countries to monetary shocks occurring in Russia, monetary policy tightening decreases economic activity in the whole economic union. The study can be extended in several ways like the analysis of the synchronization in systematic monetary policy decisions in EAEU or detailed estimations of financial channels of international transmission using banking statistics

Abstract

In this paper we the synchronization of monetary policy in Eurasian Economic Union. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, independent monetary policy may be a flexible tool of economic stabilization, so is important for countries; second, fluctuations of Russian economy and global shocks affect all the economies of EAEU, so their monetary policy depends on global and Russian interest rates anyway. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the reaction of EAEU central banks to individual, regional and global shocks. For the empirical model we use monthly data on EAEU key macroeconomic indicators from 2013 to 2021, the basic methods are general method of moments, error correction models and global vector autoregressions. Our results show that the reaction of EAEU countries’ macroeconomic variables to global shocks is by large the same, and spillovers from Russian economy play the key role. We conclude that despite heterogenous production structure, level of capital mobility and financial development the key trends in monetary policy depend on Russian inflation and financial cycle. But the future results will depend on the prospect of trade and financial integration in EAEU under external restrictions. The study can be extended with detailed analysis of capital mobility in EAEU transmission by financial channels.

Abstract

Under the conditions of the inflation targeting regime, monetary policy decisions have an impact on the economy through the financial sector. Given the significant dependence of the Russian economy on the export of oil, it is actual to study the specifics of the financial sector of resource economies and identify bottlenecks that reduce the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia In this study, using the example of 109 countries for the period 1980-2019, we assessed the degree of influence of resource dependence on the depth and structure of the financial sector. It is revealed that for a group of developing countries, the hypothesis of the "resource curse" of the financial sector is not rejected. This means that in conditions of resource dependence, the depth of the banking sector is decreasing, and the financial sector is more focused on stock markets. In the second part of the study, we investigated the degree of influence of financial sector development indicators on the effectiveness of monetary policy of commodity exporting countries which are also inflation targeters. The results of estimates obtained by the system generalized method of moments indicate that for resource economies, stock market development indicators play an important role in reducing inflation, whereas for non-resource economies, the influence of banking sector parameters prevails. In addition, in the period after the global financial crisis, as a result of increased volatility of world commodity prices there is an increasing role of financial stability indicators in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy in a group of developing resource countries. In the future, the study can be supplemented by taking into account, within the framework of econometric models, the sanctions episodes that affect the development of the financial sector in the oil-exporting countries.