Abstract

This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions (or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents descriptive levels of technology achievement and market outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One of the central differentiating features of the three scenarios is the extent to which governments perform their roles as enabling, that is, whether the policies are designed to help or hinder innovations that improve service levels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies are designed to ensure that multiple segments of society reap the rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of that theme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they might become derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutional behavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in these discussions and are noted in the paper. It is important to recognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors can lead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition to describing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses the rationale for their creation, along with a brief discussion on the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes the methodology employed in the creation of the scenarios, including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop. Document type: Book

Abstract

International audience; In a smart city, urban and transport planning should be co-conducted harmoniously in order to create a new transit-supportive city. After defining our vision of smart mobility, we will present and analyse the links between the transport system, disruptive innovation, and the role of public policies in change management. We focus on the way to organise the co-conception of smart mobility, defined as a disruptive eco-innovation, in a local territory. The development and diffusion of innovations within the mobility ecosystem significantly disrupt usages and modify market boundaries. Implementation conditions to achieve a widespread adoption of smart mobility are discussed and the role and decision-making methods of territorial actors are considered.

Abstract

Electric vehicles have existed for over 100 years as a disruptive innovation. Even though they have always been easier to use, quieter and cleaner, gasoline cars have beaten it in price, range and faster fueling. As gasoline cars have been the technological standard for the past 150 years there has been no motivation by car manufacturers to advance electric vehicles. By producing electric vehicles Tesla Motors has appropriately become the first successful startup car manufacturer in over 100 years. This research studies the systemic innovating of electric vehicles by Tesla Motors. Disruptive innovation is widely researched and often connected to electric vehicles. However systemic innovation has been rarely researched and none has shown that electric vehicles can be seen as one since they require significant adjustments to the business system they are embedded in to succeed as a disruptive innovation. Therefore I suggest that in certain instances a disruptive innovation requires systemic innovating. In the context of electric vehicles systemic innovating can be done on the disruptive technology level of batteries, on the finished product level of the car and on the external level of services such as charging stations. Tesla Motors is doubling the world’s lithium-ion battery production to enable inexpensive electric vehicles. It has produced an electric vehicle platform architecture that has advantages not seen in gasoline cars. It is also creating the standard for charging stations and its battery swapping technology is providing almost instant charging. As Tesla Motors is solving the challenges of high price, low range and slow charging, at the same time it is capitalizing and building on the unique advantages electric vehicles have always had and ultimately proving electric vehicles superiority. This is largely the result of the visionary of Tesla Motor’s CEO Elon Musk who is aiming to transform the world into sustainable energy and transportation through solar panels and batteries.