Abstract

Complex Systems are those in which a very large number of elements interact, usually in a non-linear fashion, producing emergent behaviors that are typically difficult to predict. Air transportation systems fall in this category, with a large number of aircraft following a pre-scheduled program. It has been shown that it is possible to understand and forecast delays propagation in these systems. The objective of this analysis is to compare the modeling in the US and in the European air traffic networks, analyzing the propagation of delays due to failures in the schedule or to disturbances. We use two different agent based models recently developed to simulate the delays propagation and assess the effect of disruptions in the networks (US and ECAC areas). Our results show that a first-come first-served protocol managing the flights produces larger congestion when compared with an ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management) slots priority system. This work is co-financed by EUROCONTROL acting on behalf of the SESAR Joint Undertaking (the SJU) and the EUROPEAN UNION as part of TREE project under the Work Package E in the SESAR Programme. Bruno Campanelli is funded by the Conselleria d'Educació, Cultura i Universitats of the Government of the Balearic Islands and the European Social Fund. José J. Ramasco acknowledges funding from the Ramón y Cajal program of the Spanish Ministry of Economy (MINECO). Peer reviewed

Abstract

Complexity science is the multidisciplinary study of complex systems. Its marked network orientation lends itself well to transport contexts. Key features of complexity science are introduced and defined, with a specific focus on the application to air traffic management. An overview of complex network theory is presented, with examples of its corresponding metrics and multiple scales. Complexity science is starting to make important contributions to performance assessment and system design: selected, applied air traffic management case studies are explored. The important contexts of uncertainty, resilience and emergent behaviour are discussed, with future research priorities summarised.