Abstract

This work studies the development of a sustainable hydrogen infrastructure that supports the transition towards a low-carbon transport system in the United Kingdom (UK). The future hydrogen demand is forecasted over time using a logistic diffusion model, which reaches 50% of the market share by 2070. The problem is solved using an extension of SHIPMod, an optimisation-based framework that consists of a multi-period spatially-explicit mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. The optimisation model combines the infrastructure elements required throughout the different phases of the transition, namely economies of scale, road and pipeline transportation modes and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, in order to minimise the present value of the total infrastructure cost using a discounted cash-flow analysis. The results show that the combination of all these elements in the mathematical formulation renders optimal solutions with the gradual infrastructure investments over time required for the transition towards a sustainable hydrogen economy. Document type: Article

Abstract

Since 2001, the Indonesian government has issued natural gas master plans annually holding the planned gas infrastructure developments in order to motivate private parties who are not motivated due to the lack of the gas infrastructure increase. Since 2002, there were only three segments of gas pipelines that have been tendered (IEA, 2008) which are Gresik-Semarang and Bontang-Semarang (Kalimantan to Java Pipeline) in 2005, and Cirebon-Semarang in 2006 that have no supply anymore. The current transmission and distribution lines of 3,762.32 km and 4,554.54 km, respectively, are very small compared to developed countries in a similar gas resource position as Indonesia. The paper views the role of natural gas infrastructure for economic growth and energy security in Indonesia. The economic impacts of natural gas infrastructure are analyzed through the Computable General Equilibrium model. The results show that all financing scenarios have positive impacts on the various macro-economic indicators as well as on sectorial output and employment.