Abstract

The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i) identifies four areas of economic impacts and their relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for selecting and applying these approaches in impact assessments. The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4 percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1 percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be modest (-0.002 percent to -1 percent of GDP). Document type: Book

Abstract

Part Three. Mobility in a low-carbon society; With 10.7% of global GHG emissions and 17.0% of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2005 (ITF, 2010), road transport is a key component of the transport sector's commitment to mitigating its impact on climate. While there is no silver bullet that will provide sufficient abatement given the scale of the effort needed in this complex sector, a review of existing and emerging low-carbon solutions reveals a range of promising levies. Long ignored by carbon pricing mechanisms, the sector will certainly see its emissions abatement furthered by the growing number of carbon pricing initiatives targeted at it. This chapter outlines the global trends of greenhouse gas emissions in the road transport sector and suggests a segmented analysis for those emissions. It then reviews technological, organizational and behavioural solutions for emissions reduction in road transport. Finally, it assesses the potential impacts of economic instruments and other public policies related to carbon emissions reduction, giving a feedback on existing carbon pricing experience in road transport.

Abstract

International shipping has finally set a target to reduce its CO2 emission by at least 50% by 2050. Despite this positive progress, this target is still not sufficient to reach Paris Agreement goals since CO2 emissions from international shipping could reach 17% of global emissions by 2050 if no measures are taken. A key factor that hampers the achievement of Paris goals is the knowledge gap in terms of what level of decarbonization it is possible to achieve using all the available technologies. This paper examines the technical possibility of achieving the 1.5° goal of the Paris Agreement and the required supporting policy measures. We project the transport demand for 6 ship types (dry bulk, container, oil tanker, gas, wet product and chemical, and general cargo) based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development&rsquo s (OECD&rsquo s) global trade projection of 25 commodities. Subsequently, we test the impact of mitigation measures on CO2 emissions until 2035 using an international freight transport and emission model. We present four possible decarbonization pathways which combine all the technologies available today. We found that an 82&ndash 95% reduction in CO2 emissions could be possible by 2035. Finally, we examine the barriers and the relevant policy measures to advance the decarbonization of international maritime transport. Document type: Article