Abstract

Freight forwarders play a key role in moving goods across international borders. They arrange transport, oversee customs clearance on behalf of their clients, and more generally troubleshoot issues that arise while goods are in transit. This paper reports the results from a survey of 153 freight forwarding firms in Serbia. Respondents report on firm characteristics, operational choices, and conditions at the border posts and terminals where imported goods are cleared for release. One key purpose of the study is to investigate operational trade-offs between time and cost that arise when import shipments are in transit. In three of four hypotheticals, respondents suggest that money savings dominate time savings. Responses regarding real operational decisions such as route choices reinforce this finding. Respondents also reported penalty rates for late delivery of import shipments as well as the value of a typical import shipment. From these responses, it is estimated that the contracted value of one additional (unexpected) day of delivery time in Serbia appears to be approximately 1 percent of the value of the underlying shipment. Document type: Book

Abstract

© 2015, American Economic Association. All rights reserved. Ethnic favoritism is seen as antithetical to development. This paper provides credible quantification of the extent of ethnic favoritism using data on road building in Kenyan districts across the 1963-2011 period. Guided by a model, it then examines whether the transition in and out of democracy under the same president constrains or exacerbates ethnic favoritism. Across the post-independence period, we find strong evidence of ethnic favoritism: districts that share the ethnicity of the president receive twice as much expenditure on roads and have five times the length of paved roads built. This favoritism disappears during periods of democracy. (JEL D72, H54, J15, O15, O17, O22, R42).

Abstract

Improved accessibility and its correlate lower generalized cost of contact, travel and transport have been sought by dynamic human societies for their economic and social benefits through- out recorded history. The paper will reflect about this process at a number of different spatial and temporal scales based on a conceptual model. Looking back at European history, it will trace the interaction between Christaller’s logic of local market areas and the idea of (low contact cost) network cities. Focusing on Switzerland since 1950 it will show how network investment changed the relative distribution of population and employment and how this in- teracted with changes in the preferences of the travelers. Using a recent snapshot of how a substantial sample of Swiss maintain their social networks over often very large areas, it will try to answer the question of what will happen in the future, if the current trend of ever lower costs of contact will persist. ISSN:1938-7849

Abstract

Public transit accounts for only 1% of U.S. passenger miles traveled but nevertheless attracts strong public support. Using a simple choice model, we predict that transit riders are likely to be individuals who commute along routes with the most severe roadway delays. These individuals' choices thus have very high marginal impacts on congestion. We test this prediction with data from a sudden strike in 2003 by Los Angeles transit workers. Estimating a regression discontinuity design, we find that average highway delay increases 47% when transit service ceases. This effect is consistent with our model's predictions and many times larger than earlier estimates, which have generally concluded that public transit provides minimal congestion relief. We find that the net benefits of transit systems appear to be much larger than previously believed.

Abstract

The transport and electricity sectors are in the midst of major changes in an attempt to limit climate change and air pollution problems. In the coming decades conventional fossil fuelled vehicles are expected to be replaced with electric powertrain vehicles, resulting in increased electricity demand by the transport sector. At the same time, the electricity sector is also in upheaval due to policy decisions to move away from fossil and, in many locations, nuclear energy sources towards renewables such as hydro, wind, and solar. Rightfully so, many questions have been raised in the scientific literature and media regarding the environmental benefits of these new vehicle technologies and how the different energy chain and vehicle options compare. The goal of this thesis is to analyse the environmental burdens of current and future (2050) passenger transport technologies in Switzerland while taking into account future developments of the Swiss and global electricity sectors. I use the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental burdens from current and future passenger transportation by motorcycle (Chapter 3), aircraft (Chapter 4), urban bus (Chapter 5), and passenger car (Chapters 6 and 7) for different refuelling/ recharging energy chains. Vehicle performance is modelled using a consistent framework across powertrain types to ensure fair comparison. Road vehicle energy consumption is calculated using a physics-based model that simulates operation using internationally harmonised driving cycles. This model is calibrated with real energy consumption data for each vehicle and powertrain type. This allows prediction of future vehicle performance by estimating the potential future changes for each input parameter, such as internal combustion engine efficiency or lithium ion battery cell energy density. In Chapter 6 I extend this model to enable Monte Carlo analysis and global sensitivity analysis to show that the electricity used for charging electric vehicles is the largest source of global variability of the environmental burdens of electric cars, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. I also further adapt the model using exponential smoothing of driving cycles and wind tunnel measurement results to show that future autonomous and connected vehicles could consume roughly 10% less energy per kilometer than comparable human driven vehicles. I also incorporate future developments of the electricity sector into the calculations by integrating scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into the ecoinvent LCA database using the open source software package Wurst that I helped to create. Two scenarios from the IMAGE model are used for the development of the future electricity sector for 26 global regions: Baseline may be considered a business as usual type scenario, while ClimPol represents the aggressive decarbonisation that would be consistent with a likely probability of achieving the 2°C target. This is a significant development in the field of prospective LCA and I am able to show that without these changes to the background database, future climate burdens could be overestimated by up to 75% in the ClimPol scenario. In Chapter 8 I compare different passenger transport modes for the Baseline and ClimPol electricity scenarios in the year 2050. Results are generally quite consistent across vehicle types. The introduction of battery electric vehicles is found to provide clear climate benefits compared to conventional combustion vehicles for all vehicle types as long as the electricity used for charging has carbon content similar to or less than that of a modern natural gas power plant. Switzerland’s current and future electricity mix for all likely scenarios easily meets this requirement, so a robust conclusion may be drawn that battery electric vehicles of all types should be supported in Switzerland from a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission point of view. When other environmental impact categories are considered the superiority of battery electric vehicles is less clear, though hard conclusions cannot yet be drawn due to methodological limitations. I also develop a simple fleet model to estimate the total life cycle emissions caused by the Swiss passenger transport sector. Fleet model results for 2050 show that if all road vehicles are powered by battery electric powertrains the total Swiss domestic passenger transport related life cycle GHG emissions are 47% lower in the Baseline scenario and 72% lower in the ClimPol scenario compared to 2017 emissions. Similar model results for fleets of fuel cell vehicles show 34% and 66% improvement respectively, while a fleet of hybridized combustion vehicles would enable reductions of 31% and 41% respectively. When international air transport is also included in the future fleet assessment it is found to dominate the results in some categories, especially climate change and cumulative energy demand. Future growth in air transportation demand is expected to negate all climate change reductions made in ground transportation, leaving total sector emissions in 2050 roughly similar to current emission levels. If air transport demand continues to grow according to historic rates and future projections, it will become one of the most important sources of greenhouse gases in the future, as technical improvements are expected to be outpaced by growth in demand. The only remaining solutions appear to be shifting continental transport demand to electric train, which has comparatively low impacts, or curbing demand growth. There are three main outcomes of the thesis. The first is the wealth of data published as extensive supporting information in each of my publications. These models and results should be used as inputs by energy and transport modellers as well as fed into life cycle assessment databases. The second is the open source software package Wurst that can be used to create modified versions of the ecoinvent database. This methodology has the potential to greatly improve the quality of prospective LCA. The third outcome of this thesis is the report (Chapter 7) that I helped to prepare for the Swiss Federal Office for Energy. The summary of this report is expected to reach the highest level of decision makers in the country and help inform Swiss policy regarding the energy transition.

Abstract

Long-term and mid-term mobility of people involves on the one hand decisions about their residential locations and the corresponding moves. At the same time, the places of education and employment play an important role. On the other hand the ownership of mobility tools, such as cars and different public transport season tickets, is a complementary element in this process, which also binds substantial resources. These two aspects of mobility behaviour are closely connected to one another. A longitudinal perspective on these relationships is available from people's life courses, which link different dimensions of life together. Besides the personal and familial history, locations of residence, education and employment as well as the ownership of mobility tools can be taken into account. These life course dimensions are usually not independent from one another. Events in one area are frequently connected to changes in other areas. At the same time, this longitudinal approach provides the possibility to observe developments over time. In order to study the dynamics of long-term and mid-term mobility decisions, a longitudinal survey covering the 20-year period from 1985 to 2004 was carried out at the beginning of 2005 in a stratified sample of municipalities in the Zurich region, Switzerland. The paper shows that there exists a strong interrelation between the two examined aspects of long-term and mid-term mobility. The residential mobility is influenced by the ownership of the different mobility tools, and vice versa. Thereby the mobility tool ownership remains comparably stable over longer periods of time. Concerning the ownership of the various mobility tools, the analyses indicate that car ownership and public transport season ticket ownership substitute one another. During the life course car ownership is highest among those who are 35 to 55 years old today. At the same time, men have noticeably more frequently a car at their disposal than women of the same age. Concerning the ownership of national and regional season tickets, the opposite trend is visible. ISSN:0386-1112 ISSN:2210-4240

Abstract

Flexibility of small loads, in particular from Electric Vehicles (EVs), has recently attracted a lot of interest due to their possibility of participating in the energy market and the new commercial potentials. Different from existing work, the aggregation technique proposed in this paper produces flexible aggregated loads from EVs taking into account technical market requirements. The flexible aggregated loads can be further traded in the day-ahead market by a Balance Responsible Party (BRP) via the so-called flexible orders. As a result, the BRP can achieve more than 19% cost reduction in energy purchase based on the 2017 real electricity prices from Danish electricity market. Peer Reviewed

Abstract

"The present work shows the results of a study that evaluated the overnight operation, using the modeling of air operations where simulation emerges as a tool, consistent with the objective of the organization to achieve better results. The old paradigms air transport issues have worn the new information systems and the need to compensate for supply capacity with demand. Some aviation sector organizations have felt the need to modify their strategic schemes. It is not enough to be part of the market and wait for the opportunities, now, which runs the changes and is innovative in their practices, achieves superior performance in the market. Because of these constant changes, organizations have had to adapt, as in the case of this particular airline, under higher demand stimulated and most comfortable travel plans and innovative, the operations involved in this value chain become more critical, since in the same chain, feels greater dependence and demand in the various logistics operations related to the provision of air service. When viewing this critical chain, there is a need to assess, innovate and improve the most important aspects in the operation."