Abstract

In the urban planning literature, it is frequently explicitly asserted or strongly implied that ongoing urban sprawl and decentralization can lead to development patterns that are unsustainable in the long run. One manifestation of such an outcome is that if extensive road investments occur, urban sprawl and decentralization are advanced and locked-in, making subsequent investments in public transit less effective in reducing vehicle kilometers traveled by car, gasoline use and carbon dioxide emissions. Using a simple core-periphery model of Beijing, the authors numerically assess this effect. The analysis confirms that improving the transit travel time in Beijing?s core would reduce the city?s overall carbon dioxide emissions, whereas the opposite would be the case if peripheral road capacity were expanded. This effect is robust to perturbations in the model?s calibrated parameters. In particular, the effect persists for a wide range of assumptions about how location choice depends on travel time and a wide range of assumptions about other aspects of consumer preferences. Document type: Book

Abstract

This study examines impacts on net social benefits or economic welfare of alternative policy instruments for reducing traffic congestion and atmospheric emissions in São Paulo, Brazil. The study shows that expanding road networks, subsidizing public transit, and improving automobile fuel economy may not be as effective as suggested by economic theories because these policies could cause significant rebound effects. Although pricing instruments such as congestion tolls and fuel taxes would certainly reduce congestion and emissions, the optimal level of these instruments would steeply increase the monetary cost of travel per trip and are therefore politically difficult to implement. However, a noticeable finding is that even smaller tolls, which are more likely to be politically acceptable, have substantial benefits in terms of reducing congestion and emissions. Among the various policy instruments examined in the study, the most socially preferable policy option for São Paulo would be to introduce a mix of congestion toll and fuel taxes on automobiles and use the revenues to improve public transit systems. Document type: Book

Abstract

This paper assesses whether the level of taxation of motor fuel is broadly appropriate in a group of countries (OECD, BRICs and South Africa) accounting for more than 80 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis deals with emissions from oil combustion in transport, which account for about 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions. In the benchmark specification, six countries (responsible, in turn, for more than 40 percent of worldwide motor-fuel greenhouse gas world emissions) would be undertaxing motor fuel. The authors evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the values of the elasticities and externalities that used in the analysis. They find that varying the values of these parameters (within the level of uncertainty reasonably associated with them) significantly affects the results. This implies that, while informative, the results must be taken as indicative. Further analysis for a particular country must rely on a well-informed choice for the values of the country-specific parameters. Document type: Book

Abstract

Climate change is a major environmental threat of our time. Cities have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions as most of the traffic, industry, commerce and more than 50% of world population is situated in urban areas. Southern Europe is a region that faces financial turmoil, enhanced migratory fluxes and climate change pressure. The case study of Thessaloniki is presented, one of the only two cities in Greece with established climate change action plans. The effects of feasible traffic policies in year 2020 are assessed and their potential health impact is compared to a business as usual scenario. Two types of measures are investigated: operation of underground rail in the city centre and changes in fleet composition. Potential co-benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions on public health by the year 2020 are computed utilizing state-of-the-art concentration response functions for PM x , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 . Results show significant environmental health and monetary co-benefits when the city metro is coupled with appropriate changes in the traffic composition. Monetary savings due to avoided mortality or leukaemia incidence corresponding to the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5, NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure will be 56.6, 45, 37.7 and 1.0 million Euros respectively. Promotion of ‘green’ transportation in the city (i.e. the wide use of electric vehicles), will provide monetary savings from the reduction in PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO 2 and C 6 H 6 exposure up to 60.4, 49.1, 41.2 and 1.08 million Euros. Overall, it was shown that the respective GHG emission reduction policies resulted in clear co-benefits in terms of air quality improvement, public health protection and monetary loss mitigation. Document type: Article

Abstract

Emerging countries in Southeast Asia are facing considerable challenges in addressing rising motorisation and its negative impact on air quality, traffic, energy security, liveability, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the approach and status of sustainable, low-carbon transport policy in ASEAN countries and identifies differences and similarities. The methodology is based on a taxonomy of policy components as developed by Howlett and Cashore. The data come from comprehensive country studies for Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam and interviews with policymakers. We find that each country has a specific set of goals, objectives and targets that support sustainable transport, and, directly or indirectly, climate change mitigation. In terms of specific mechanisms and calibrations, which we analyse based on the Avoid−Shift−Improve approach, there are notable differences between the countries, for example in terms of fuel economy policy. Even though an initial response to climate change mitigation challenges is visible in these countries’ transport policies, much more effort is required to enable a transition to a transport system compatible with long-term climate change and sustainable development targets. Document type: Article

Abstract

In 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005) provided the first comprehensive report on global ecosystems, the dependence of human societies on the services provided, current state, and likely future trajectory. The MA identified the failure to value ecosystem services as a major contributing cause. The 2001 environment strategy did not explicitly address environmental valuation, although the focus on poverty and environment implies a need for valuing natural resources and environmental services. In consultations on the 2010 environment strategy, a wide range of stakeholders stressed the importance of mainstreaming environmental services. To better direct limited resources for environmental valuation and training, a closer look is needed to identify the conditions under which valuation has had an impact on: policy and project design, policy dialogue in client countries, environmental investments, and strengthening the capacity of national institutions. This report presents a review of environmental valuation in World Bank operational and analytical work, identifying what has been done, and the impacts environmental valuation has had. The report identifies the conditions under which valuation is most likely to influence decision-makers, and finally, the implications for the 2010 environment strategy. The report is organized as follows: section one gives context; section two gives introduction; section three gives approach to learning from past experience; section four focuses on coverage of ecosystem services; section five presents prioritizing environmental valuation; section six deals with why environmental valuation not done; and section seven gives recommendations. Document type: Book

Abstract

The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i) identifies four areas of economic impacts and their relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for selecting and applying these approaches in impact assessments. The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4 percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1 percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be modest (-0.002 percent to -1 percent of GDP). Document type: Book