Abstract

Road construction has often been viewed as the precursor to deforestation, especially in tropical forests. Traditional responses to such threats have been reactive, with attempts to mitigate impacts through physical measures, or the establishment of protected areas. These approaches often have not been entirely successful, especially in areas where economic potential is significant. This paper seeks to mitigate such conflicts by proposing a proactive approach to development planning and environmental policy. It develops a high-resolution spatial model of road improvement impacts that includes ecological risks and the economics of forest clearing. The approach is implemented by estimating the potential impact of road upgrading on forest clearing and biodiversity in eight Congo Basin countries. The paper demonstrates how the detailed analysis can identify areas of high ecological priority as well as areas at high risk of forest loss. The paper contributes to several aspects of the literature. First, it provides the most recent and reliable estimates of the drivers of deforestation in the Congo Basin, with the latest high-resolution satellite data on forest cover changes. Second, it presents novel estimates of biodiversity threats by creating an index that combines and synthesizes several measures of biodiversity loss and impacts. It then develops an empirical framework for estimating the ecological impacts of road improvement. Finally, the paper illustrates how the empirical framework can be used to preempt impacts and avoid potential ecological damage. Document type: Book

Abstract

Transport infrastructure is deemed to be central to development and consumes a large fraction of the development assistance envelope. Yet there is debate about the economic impact of road projects. This paper proposes an approach to assess the differential development impacts of alternative road construction and prioritize various proposals, using Nigeria as a case study. Recognizing that there is no perfect measure of economic well-being, a variety of outcome metrics are used, including crop revenue, livestock revenue, non-agricultural income, the probability of being multi-dimensionally poor, and local gross domestic product for Nigeria. Although the measure of transport is the most accurate possible, it is still endogenous because of the nonrandom placement of road infrastructure. This endogeneity is addressed using a seemingly novel instrumental variable termed the natural path: the time it would take to walk along the most logical route connecting two points without taking into account other, bias-causing economic benefits. Further, the analysis considers the potential endogeneity from nonrandom placement of households and markets through carefully chosen control variables. It finds that reducing transportation costs in Nigeria will increase crop revenue, non-agricultural income, the wealth index, and local gross domestic product. Livestock sales increase as well, although this finding is less robust. The probability of being multi-dimensionally poor will decrease. The results also cast light on income diversification and structural changes that may arise. These findings are robust to relaxing the exclusion restriction. The paper also demonstrates how to prioritize alternative road programs by comparing the expected development impacts of alternative New Partnership for Africas Development projects. Document type: Book

Abstract

This study uses Twitter data to provide a more nuanced understanding of the public reaction to the 2011 reform to the propane gas subsidy in El Salvador. By soliciting a small sample of manually tagged tweets, the study identifies the subject matter and sentiment of all tweets during six one-month periods over three years that concern the subsidy reform. The paper shows that such an analysis using Twitter data can provide a useful complement to existing household survey data and even potentially replace survey data if none were available. The finding show that when people tweet about the subsidy, they almost always do so in a negative manner; and there is a decline in discussion of topics about the reform subsidy, which coincides with increase in support for the subsidy as reported elsewhere. Therefore, the study concludes that decreasing discussion of the subsidy reform indicates an increase in support for the reform. In addition, the gas distributor strikes of May 2011 may have contributed to public perception of the reform more than previously acknowledged. This study is used as an opportunity to provide methodological guidance for researchers who wish to undertake similar studies, documenting the steps in the analysis pipeline with detail and noting the challenges inherent in obtaining data, classification, and inference. Document type: Book

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity. Document type: Book

Abstract

With this Cameroon economic update, the World Bank is pursuing a program of short, crisp and frequent country economic reports. These economic updates provide an analysis of the trends and constraints in Cameroon's economic development. Each issue, produced bi-annually, provides an update of recent economic developments, as well as a special focus on a topical issue. The economic updates aim to share knowledge and stimulate debate among those interested in improving the economic management of Cameroon and unleashing its enormous potential. This fourth issue of the Cameroon economic update is entitled 'stepping out into the world a special focus on trade facilitation'. It reviews the challenges and opportunities related to trade facilitation in Cameroon. The coverage is not meant to be exhaustive, but puts an emphasis on particular areas that would require the country's sustained attention: a transformative trade facilitation agenda around which all stakeholders could be mobilized.

Abstract

The devastating civil war in Syria is arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times. The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014 caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure, prevented children from going to school, closed factories and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the main channels through which the effects of the crisis are transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in neighboring countries. Moreover, to the extent that Syria has become harder to cross, the war may have made trade through Syria more difficult. At the same time producers in neighboring countries may have replaced Syrian producers in Syria and in other markets as their productive assets in Syria were destroyed. This report examines the effects of the Syrian war on the Lebanese economy via one of the most important channels through which the economic impact of the war occurs, i.e. the trade channel. In doing so, it partly updates and extends the previous economic assessment of World Bank (2013b) carried out last year. Focusing specifically on trade allows us to examine in more depth the trade effects than that report was able to do. Indeed, we go beyond the effects on aggregate and sectoral imports and exports to also examine the effects on exports at firms’ level, comparing the effects in Lebanon with those in other neighboring countries, including Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.

Abstract

In Croatia, initial steps to reform the railway sector date back to the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, with the formation of Croatian railways as a holding company. To help with further reforms of the Croatian railway sector, over the period 2011-2013, the World Bank was engaged in dialogue with the Croatian Government and the Croatian railway companies which resulted in a Croatian railway policy note. The poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) is an analysis of the intended and unintended consequences of policy reforms on the wellbeing or welfare of different social groups, with particular focus on the poor and vulnerable. PSIA offers a set of analytical and process tools that: (a) determine distributional impacts to improve the analytical underpinnings of policy making; and (b) engage appropriate stakeholders in the policy-making process. The report is divided into following sections: first section gives executive summary. The introduction provides information on the economic situation in Croatia, including unemployment rates and pensions, the situation of the railway sector, and data on the restructuring process of the Croatian railways companies in second section. The third section contains the results obtained from the group discussions and in-depth interviews which are divided into four parts: the circumstances upon leaving the railway companies, after leaving, transferring to a new workplace, and the broader impacts on the community, including the impacts of closed and reduced lines. The last part of the section contains recommendations based on the obtained results.

Abstract

part of efforts to curb road deaths and serious injuries, the World Bank Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) invited the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) to work with the National Department of Transport Infrastructure (Departamento Nacional de Infraestrutura de Transportes, DNIT) to assess the safety of Brazilian roads. During this second assessment of Brazilian roads, approximately 3,400km of roads were assessed. This technical report describes the road assessment project and includes details on data collection, the methodology used and a summary of the results. The infrastructure-related risk assessment involved detailed surveys and coding of 50 road attributes at 100 meter intervals along the network and creation of Star Ratings, which provide a simple and objective measure showing the level of risk on the road network. The star ratings show that 1 percent of road length is rated as 5-star, 9 percent is rated as 4-star, 58 percent is rated as 3-star, and the remaining 32 percent is rated as 2-star and below for vehicle occupants. For motorcyclists, no roads were rated as 5-star, only 3 percent of road length is rated as 4-star, 47 percent is rated as 3-star, and the remaining 50 percent is rated 2-star and below. For pedestrians less than 1 percent is rated as 4-star and 5-star, 2 percent is rated as 3-star and the remaining 13 percent is rated 2-star and below. For bicyclists less than 1 percent is rated as 5-star or 4-star, 5 percent is rated as 3-star and the remaining 14 percent is rated 2-star and below. The project also involved the creation of a Safer Roads Investment Plans, which draws on more than 90 proven road safety treatments, ranging from low cost road markings and pedestrian refuges to higher cost intersection upgrades and full highway duplication.

Abstract

Various transport-related agencies and local governments develop their respective transport plans or strategies to address bottlenecks and improve outcomes in the transport sector. However, to be able to bring a more focused or targeted intervention that is more inclusive, these various strategies need to focus on establishing interconnectivity between key urban growth centers and between lagging and fast-growing regions, and creating supporting institutions that promote greater integration. Upon the request of the National Economic and Development Authority, a framework plan was developed to provide policy-makers with a strategic framework to help identify the transport needs of the Philippines and guide in implementing an integrated, more coordinated approach to establishing stronger transport infrastructure linkages to support the country’s inclusive growth agenda. The framework plan was developed under the guidance of a vision and goals developed by stakeholders across the Philippines. This comprehensive vision can be summarized as ‘Bringing us all closer together for prosperity.’ The geographic focus of the Framework Plan includes all of the Philippines outside of Metro Manila. This Framework Plan does not replicate the work being done by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for Metro Manila (the JICA study covers Metro Manila with an approximate radius of 100 kilometers and is being conducted to evaluate specific transport infrastructure projects for the Metro Manila area). Future improvements and needs of transportation infrastructure to meet the demand for long-distance transport to and from Metro Manila and to other urban/economic centers in the Philippines are considered; nevertheless, national-level strategies recommended in this study affect all areas of the Philippines.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the economy wide indirect benefits of investments in the East West highway (EWH). This study has used a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which simulates indirect benefits associated with the completion of the upgraded road corridor. The transmission channel modeled is the reduction in transportation costs - reduction in vehicle operating costs, and time savings - resulting from the investments in the EWH. A CGE model is a simultaneous equation system that consists of equations representing various economic relationships for different economic agents, such as producers and households. CGE models are commonly used by countries and international financial institutions to simulate policy interventions to determine economy-wide impacts. This study involved modifying the existing social accounting matrix (SAM) and CGE model in order to carry out simulations to answer the question of economy wide impacts of the EWH investments, including impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, jobs, and trade, as well as impacts on households disaggregated by income. It aims to answer the following questions: how will the EWH lower the transportation costs for producers of goods and services?; what are the economy wide impacts of the EWH on employment, real GDP growth, trade, and household income?; and can the EWH help bridge the existing economic divide between rural and urban areas in Georgia? The study is aims to simulate quantitatively how the EWH as a large-scale infrastructure investment program can bring significant stimulus to foster economic growth and welfare in Georgia.