Abstract

The petroleum sector contributes substantially to the Nigerian economy; however, the potential benefits are diminished because of the existence of significant subsidies on imports of petroleum products. Subsidies on imported petroleum products are considered to be an important instrument for keeping fuel prices, and hence the cost of living, low. The costs of these subsidies, however, have risen dramatically in recent years along with increased volatility in world petroleum and petroleum product prices and increased illegal exportation of subsidized petroleum products into neighboring countries. Removing the subsidy on fuel is one of the most contentious socioeconomic policy issues in Nigeria today. In this paper, an economy-wide framework is used to identify the impact of removing the fuel subsidy on the Nigerian economy and investigate how alternative policies might be used to meet socioeconomic objectives related to fuel subsidies. The results show that although a reduction in the subsidy generally results in an increase in Nigeria’s gross domestic product, it can have a detrimental impact on household income, and in particular on poor households. Accompanying the subsidy reduction with income transfers aimed at poor households or domestic production of petroleum products can alleviate the negative impacts on household income. Document type: Book

Abstract

Discussions of competition and regulatory reform typically focus on price and quantity effects. But improving certain infrastructure services can also stimulate entry, and competition in user industries downstream, allowing new firms to enter, incumbent users to offer new products, and rivalry to intensify. The authors present a case study of how innovations in road freight services affect selected downstream users of those services after regulatory reform. After a period of rigid regulation, and heavy government interference, Mexico in 1989 developed a new policy framework for road transport, with free entry, and market-based price setting. The result: faster, more reliable trucking has allowed user companies to offer new, previously unavailable products, and to reach new areas with existing products. Cheaper, more customer-responsive trucking services have allowed logistical innovations in user firms, and some user firms have decided not to keep their own fleets of trucks, but to outsource trucking services on the open market, thereby converting fixed costs to variable costs. For one fertilizer company, the benefits of reform included a ten percent improvement in operating margin. Successful reform requires careful planning and execution, and political support at high levels. Regulatory reform also profoundly changes the sectoral institution formerly responsible for the regulation. Enough resources should be provided to help organizations in the reformed industry make the transition to the post-reform environment - helping with such tasks as defining the organizations new role, and facilitating the redeployment of staff. The national competition agency can help greatly in laying the groundwork for reform by making a compelling case for the reforms expected benefits. After reform, the competition agency should also help with enforcement, to ensure that the cozy, cartel-like behavior stimulated by tight entry restrictions does not persist. In Mexico, three strong interventions were required to discipline attempted anti-competitive practices in the trucking industry in the years following reform. Document type: Book

Abstract

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off. Document type: Book

Abstract

This paper examines the spatial organization of jobs in Kampala, the capital city of Uganda, and applies the Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg (2002) model to explain the observed patterns in terms of the agglomeration forces and the commuting costs of workers. The paper suggests that: (i) Economic activities are concentrated in the downtown -- beyond which employment is spatially dispersed. (ii) Geographically weighted regressions identify five potential subcenters in 2011; however, none of these contribute significantly to employment. When explaining the variation in employment density across localities in Kampala, the research highlights that (i) density falls by 23.5 percent per kilometer increase in distance from the nearest potential subcenter; (ii) an increase in local production externalities of 10 percent increases density by 3.7 percent; and (iii) production externalities in Kampala's potential subcenters are extremely weak to have any significant impact even on nearby tracts. Document type: Book

Abstract

The Baltic States; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and Poland are situated along strategic trade corridors within Europe, constituting the EUs eastern border with Russia and other CIS countries. EU membership has triggered rapid economic growth for the Baltic States and Poland due to the removal of trade barriers and reduced transaction costs. A heavy influx of EU grants has targeted development and improvement of transport infrastructure, and this support will continue until 2015. The EU grants are largely used for development of international corridors, which play a key role in strengthening the competitiveness of these new member states. Since their accession to the EU in 2004, these countries enjoyed remarkable growth. While the countries underwent varying degrees of contractions in 2009, signs of recovery are showing albeit with considerable uncertainty in the future. Growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in recent years has been unsustainable and was driven by a disproportionate increase in the non-tradable sector (construction, financial intermediation, real estate). This has had negative implications for competitiveness. The global economic crisis in 2009 has ended Poland?s fast economic expansion over the recent years, but in contrast to its neighbors Poland has avoided a decline in economic activity. Over the medium term, growth in Poland is expected to accelerate steadily in line with an improving external environment. The Baltic States and Poland are relatively competitive in trade logistics and have initiated reforms to facilitate trade, compared to their eastern neighbors, particularly Russia. Despite the plunge in 2008, freight transport and logistics development in the region has potential to continue to grow in the medium-term as some signs of recovery have begun to appear. The current economic situation has triggered a significant overcapacity of transport and warehousing which is characterized by very low prices for these services. While Poland remains relatively stable, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are exhibiting higher vulnerability to external shocks. The most critical bottlenecks of transport logistics in the Baltic States and Poland are found in the deteriorating condition of their transport infrastructure, particularly that of road networks, lessdeveloped intermodal connections, and inefficiency of custom processing at border crossing points. Deteriorating road condition in these countries is largely due to inadequate maintenance and a comprehensive asset management system, albeit improving. Intermodal connections that are often inefficient are partly attributed to institutional arrangement that lacks inter-agency collaboration at the level of policy development and public investment. Custom procedures are particularly cumbersome and inefficient at the borders to non-EU member states. Nevertheless, the Baltic States and Poland have relative strengths in efficiency of domestic transport/logistics, cost-efficiency of trucking industry, and price-competitive port operation. The report various recommendations for strategic policy priorities for the Baltic States and Poland to leverage their own strengths to respond to various opportunities and challenges.

Abstract

In 2012, the World Bank signed five agreements with MRDPA for advisory services, out of which one relates to the growth poles policy and to its improvement for the programming period 2014-2020. This agreement has three components: 1) an analysis of the growth poles policy, 2) energy efficiency studies for each growth pole; and 3) a review of the Integrated Development Plans prepared by the growth poles for the period 2007-2013. In this context, South Muntenia Regional Development Agency, through the coordinator of Ploiești Growth Pole, requested the World Bank, under a project funded by ERDF through the Technical Assistance Operational Program 2007-2013, to support the Growth Pole in implementing the recommendations stemming from the previous analysis with: 1) updating the Integrated Development Plan for 2014-2020; and 2) proposing an improved institutional framework for coordinating the planning, implementation and monitoring of projects under this plan. The current document of the Integrated Development Plan belonging to Ploiești Growth Pole was developed during the period 2008-2009 and approved and submitted to South Muntenia RDA in April 2010. It contains a total number of 93 projects with a total value of RON 5,136,143,583.91, out of which 762,515,322.81 are EU funds, and the remainder comes from the national budget and the beneficiaries’ own contribution. In the process of updating the plan, the implementation status of these projects will be studied further, while attention will be also given to the unimplemented projects in order to see whether they will be included in the documentation, depending on their response to the new development conditions of the growth pole.

Abstract

Turkey’s demographic and economic transformation has been one of the world’s most dramatic, with urban growth and economic growth proceeding hand in hand. Distinguishing Turkey from many other developing countries has been the pace, scale, and geographical diversity of its spatial and economic transformation. Fast-growing secondary cities bring added challenges that define Turkey’s second-generation urban agenda. New and differentiated service standards will need to be established across both dense urban built-up areas and small villages and rural settlements within the newly-expanded metropolitan municipality administrative area. These developments make planning, connecting, and financing important policy principles for Turkey’s second-generation urban development agenda. This policy brief frames a second-generation urban development agenda to support Turkey’s transition from upper middle income to high income.

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities in addressing road safety in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. It presents information on the size, characteristics, and causes of the problem; presents evidence on the effectiveness of measures that countries world-wide have adopted to improve road safety; briefly describes current international road safety policy; and discusses a range of strategies and actions that could be undertaken by the World Bank in coordination and partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), multilateral development banks, other international agencies and donors, as well as with private and civil society institutions. A primary audience of this report is internal-particularly managers and staff of the World Bank working in the transport, health, education, and governance sectors, to raise awareness about the multisectoral nature of the road safety challenge and of effective options to address it. It proposes ways that the World Bank might engage more to support ECA countries in tackling this issue, working in partnership with other international agencies and donors. The secondary audience is external policymakers, senior analysts, program managers, and their advisers in the governments of ECA countries, private sector officials, and civil society and international organizations working in this field. The goal is to support discussion on appropriate choices and instruments for advancing the road safety agenda as a top development priority over the short and medium term.

Abstract

The Government of Benin has requested an update of the 2005 Diagnostic Trade Integration Study and has asked the World Bank to take the leading role in this exercise. The update’s objectives are to (a) take stock of progress in the mainstreaming of trade in the government’s national development strategy and of implementation of the Action Matrix recommendations; (b) complement and deepen the analysis in selected areas; and (c) revise and update the Action Matrix to take account of the evolving context since 2006. The aim of the analysis is to assist the Government of Benin in defining an overall competitiveness strategy for inclusive, job-creating export-led growth in accordance with the key priorities identified in the 2013 Plan Stratégique de Développement du Commerce (PSDC), and to further mainstream trade into the general policy orientation defined by Benin’s key policy documents, including the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP) update. The DTIS Update (DTISU) offers a diagnosis, analytical framework and action plan, giving trade expansion a key role in the reduction of poverty and vulnerability. As mandated by the Paris Principles, the DTISU’s approach is strongly aligned with the MICPME’s PSDC (Trade Development Strategy Plan, henceforth TDSP) and draws also from the diagnosis in the Government of Benin’s recent poverty assessment (INSAE 2014) as well as the 2011 update of the GPRSP. It emphasizes the linkages between poverty, jobs, and trade with two key objectives: (i) reducing poverty through trade-led growth, and (ii) reducing vulnerability.