Abstract

Early in the year, as the global economy was slowing and the euro area entered a recession, Russia's economy held steady. But now, as 2012 is entering its final quarter, growth is slowing. Just at a time when Russia's output levels have exceeded the pre-crisis peak, the economy is settling onto a lower trajectory, even though oil prices have stayed high. But let us start with the strong points. The economy had a good first half of the year. While growth was stalling in Europe and slowing in other emerging economies, it remained steady in Russia. Key economic indicators were near or at record levels: the current account surplus stayed high and the Central Bank of Russia added to its reserves, helping to bolster market confidence. Capital outflows, long regarded as one of the soft spots of Russia's economy, declined in the second and third quarters of 2012 from the peaks in the previous two quarters. Whereas many countries in Europe are struggling with large public debt and high fiscal deficits, Russia's federal government public debt is close to single digit and the fiscal balance is in surplus. Inflation and unemployment rates declined to their lowest level in two decades. As people's purchasing power improved and more people had jobs, fewer people were in poverty than at any time since the beginning of the economic transition. A challenging external environment and worsening sentiments among businesses and consumers translate into weak growth prospects. Excluding the crisis years of 1998 and 2009, growth in 2012 is set to decline to its lowest rate in a decade and a half. And 2013 is unlikely to look much better. The weak outlook means that strong, three-pronged policy action is essential to reinvigorate the economy. First, economic policies have to ensure stability. The recent tightening in monetary policy was an important step in this direction. Second, Russia has to build buffers against the external volatility. This means replenishing the reserve fund, moving towards inflation targeting and strengthening banking supervision. Finally, the government has to lift the growth potential of the economy. This means raising productivity and competitiveness, diversifying the economy, and improving transport connectivity, as discussed in the last section of this report, in line with its longer-term economic policy goals. Making headway on this agenda will enable Russia to lift growth above 4 percent and more.

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Ghana over the past three decades has coincided with rapid GDP growth. This has helped to create jobs, increase human capital, decrease poverty, and expand opportunities and improve living conditions for millions of Ghanaians. Ghana’s urban transformation has been momentous, but it is not unique: a similar process has characterized other countries at similar levels of development. Ghana’s key challenge now is to ensure that urbanization continues to complement growth through improvements in productivity and inclusion, rather than detracting from these goals. Many rising problems are related to efficiency and inclusion: these include slums, lack of basic services, underdeveloped manufacturing, and insufficient transport infrastructure.

Abstract

Maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland has grown remarkably during the 2000s. This increase has an impact on the environment and exposes it to risks. These problems should be controlled to guarantee sustainable development and the welfare of inhabitants in the area. A method for estimating the impact of ship-originated air emissions on the environment is to calculate their environmental externalities which are a part of the total marginal social costs of shipping. The internalization of externalities as a control method of transport would comply with the polluter pays principle and act as a fair traffic control method between transport modes. In this paper, we present the results of CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions originating from ships and their externalities in the Gulf of Finland up to 2015. The calculation algorithm developed for this study produces emission estimates per annum and converts them into externalities. We focus on passenger, tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessel ship types representing almost 90% of the total NOx emissions of shipping in the area. Scenario modelling is a method for estimating the effects of forthcoming or planned regulations and helps with targeting emission abatement actions to maximize their profit. The results of the calculation algorithm show that externalities can be used as a consultative tool for transport-related decision-making. The costs are given at the price levels of the year 2000. The total external cost of ship-originated CO2, NOx, SOx and PM emissions in the Gulf of Finland was almost €175 million in 2007. Due to increased traffic volumes, these costs will increase to nearly €214 million in 2015. The majority of externalities are produced by CO2 emissions. If we deduct CO2 externalities from the results, we get total externalities of €57 million in 2007. Following eight years (2015), externalities would be 28% or €41 million lower. This would be as a result of regulation reducing the sulphur content of marine fuels. Regulating SOx and PM emissions will slow down the increasing trend of shipborne externalities in the Gulf of Finland; however, the externalities are still growing. In order to achieve a downward trend, the two major compounds resulting in externalities must be reduced, which requires strict actions to lower shipborne CO2 and NOx emissions. First Published Online: 30 Mar 2012