Abstract

In Zimbabwe trade has been a driver of economic growth, rising incomes, and progressive empowerment of Zimbabweans through rising standards of living and the promise of better jobs. Since 1980, through good years and bad years, increases in exports have been positively associated with increases in national income. Zimbabwe's location and resource base, together with a low-cost but relatively well educated labor force, have endowed it with a naturally high trade ratio built on a diversified base that facilitates using trade as an engine of growth. While trade volumes have rebounded smartly from the deep recession of 2007-2008, these do not offset other worrisome longer-term trends: 1) export growth during the last decade has been lackluster and failed to drive high growth; 2) agricultural exports, other than tobacco, have lost their once dominant role in the region, and are no longer a source of diversification; 3) manufacturing has withered in a continuing secular decline; and 4) Zimbabwe's export basket has become less diversified and more dependent on a narrow range of mineral and, to a lesser extent, agricultural products. In short, exports have become less diversified, less-technologically sophisticated, and less labor-intensive, and ever more dependent on a few large mining activities to provide foreign exchange and employment. This report traces the roots of this poor performance to several policy issues: poor predictability of macroeconomic policy and economic governance has created an unfavorable climate for private investment and trade; a tariff structure that dampens export profitability; industrial policies (indigenization policy in particular) that undermine investor confidence and inhibits private investment; and finally, competition-limiting policies toward services that limit connectivity of Zimbabweans and raise trade costs. The good news arising from the study is that the remedies for these policy shortcomings lie in Zimbabwean hands. If the government were to adopt reforms that reconfigure economy-wide incentives and trade and industrial policies, it could promote sustained growth, economic diversification and empowerment of poor people. Document type: Book

Abstract

Maritime transport costs significantly impede international trade. This article examines why these costs are so high in some countries and quantifies the importance of two explanations: restrictive trade policies and private anticompetitive practices. It finds that both matter, but the latter have a greater impact. Trade liberalization and the breakup of private carrier agreements would lead to an average of one-third lower liner transport prices and to cost savings of up to US dollar 3 billion on goods carried to the United States alone. The policy implications are clear: there is a need not only for further liberalization of government policy but also for strengthened international disciplines on restrictive business practices. The authors propose an approach to developing such disciplines in the current round of services negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Document type: Book

Abstract

The Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD) has gathered and analyzed extensive data on infrastructure in around 40 Sub-Saharan countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The results have been presented in reports covering different areas of infrastructure ICT, irrigation, power, transport, water and sanitation and different policy areas, including investment needs, fiscal costs, and sector performance. This report presents the key AICD findings for the DRC, allowing the country's infrastructure situation to be benchmarked against that of its African peers. Given that the DRC is a fragile state trying to catch up with other low-income countries (LICs) in the region, both fragile-state and LIC African benchmarks will be used to evaluate the DRC's situation. Detailed comparisons will also be made with immediate regional neighbors in Central Africa. Several methodological issues should be borne in mind. First, because of the cross-country nature of data collection, a time lag is inevitable. The period covered by the AICD runs from 2001 to 2006. Most technical data presented are for 2006 (or the most recent year available), while financial data are typically averaged over the available period to smooth out the effect of short-term fluctuations. Second, in order to make comparisons across countries, indicators had to be standardized to place the analysis on a consistent basis. This means that some of the indicators presented here may be slightly different from those that are routinely reported and discussed at the country level. During the period from 2001 to 2005, per capita economic growth in DRC was on average 2.1 percent higher than during the period from 1991 to 1995. Despite this improvement, growth levels, which oscillated between 4 and 8 percent in the early 2000s, still fell short of the sustained 7 percent per year needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Improved telecommunications infrastructure has been the main driver of this change, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the country's per capita growth rate. Deficiencies in power infrastructure, on the other hand, held back per capita growth by 0.25 percentage point over this period. Document type: Book

Abstract

Can regionalism do what multilateralism has so far failed to do—promote greater openness of services markets? Although previous research has pointed to the wider and deeper legal commitments under regional agreements as proof that it can, no previous study has assessed the impact of such agreements on applied policies. This paper focuses on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where regional integration of services markets has been linked to thriving regional supply chains. Drawing on surveys conducted in 2008 and 2012 of applied policies in the key services sectors of ASEAN countries, the paper assesses the impact of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) and the ambitious ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, which envisaged integrated services markets by 2015. The analysis finds that over this period, ASEAN did not integrate faster internally than vis-à-vis the rest of the world: policies applied to trade with other ASEAN countries were virtually the same as those applied to trade with rest of the world. Moreover, the recent commitments scheduled under AFAS did not produce significant liberalization and, in a few instances, services trade policy actually became more restrictive. The two exceptions are in areas that are not on the multilateral negotiating agenda: steps have been taken toward creating regional open skies in air transport, and a few mutual recognition agreements have been negotiated in professional services. These findings suggest that regional negotiations add the most value when they are focused on areas that are not being addressed multilaterally. Document type: Article

Abstract

a small and open economy, Belarus' development perspectives are intrinsically linked to its ability to produce and sell goods and services competitively in the global marketplace. While Belarus is an open economy, its trade links are concentrated both in terms of products and markets. Mineral goods –most importantly refined oil and potassium chloride - are the main export product accounting for more than 1/3 of total exports. Non mineral exports, including most importantly machinery, vehicles and transport equipment are mostly exported to Russia and other CIS markets, which account for 74 percent of non-mineral exports while the share of EU countries in Belarus non-mineral exports account for less than 15 percent. With Russia's WTO accession in 2012 competitive pressures on Belarus’ major market for non-mineral exports have further intensified. As Belarus is accelerating its own negotiations with the WTO, understanding the challenges and opportunities faced by the country's exporters is critical to putting in place an effective adaptation strategy that will enhance competitiveness and ensure Belarus can take full advantage of more open market access. The objective of this note is to analyze the economic impacts of Belarus' potential accession to the WTO. The note utilizes a modern computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Belarus to simulate impacts on the economy as a whole and on individual sectors.

Abstract

In an effort to further develop the South East Europe transport observatory (SEETO) comprehensive network, integrate it in the European Union’s (EU) Trans-European transport (TEN-T) network and strengthen the underlying transport planning systems, a grant was awarded by the Western Balkans infrastructure framework (WBIF) for the update of the regional Balkans infrastructure study (REBIS). The motivation for the update was the fact that since the completion of REBIS in 2003, there had been no review or update of the study’s projections and recommendations that will in turn enable an informed assessment and updating of the regional priorities for investment in the SEETO comprehensive network. The main objective of the REBIS update was to develop a priority action plan for enhancing the efficiency of the SEETO comprehensive network. The action plan identifies priority physical investments as well as non-physical improvements including regulatory, institutional, and managerial changes required to reduce impediments to the efficient performance of the network. The focus of the final report is the assessment of the 2030 traffic projections under low and moderate and moderate and high economic growth scenarios against the capacity of the network under the do-nothing scenario and the full SEETO scenario and on the development of the priority action plan. The report is organized as follows: section one gives introduction .Section two presents a brief assessment of the 2003 REBIS traffic projections against reported counts. Section three presents key non-physical impediments to transport and trade facilitation, as well as the costs and benefits associated with their alleviation. Section four presents the 2030 traffic projections for both the low and moderate and moderate and high economic growth scenarios. Section five presents the results of the capacity assessment of the existing and planned networks to handle the projected traffic. Section six presents the methodology used in the preliminary economic efficiency analysis for assessing the physical interventions and the results, while section seven presents the priority action plan. Section eight provides concluding comments.

Abstract

In considering the prospects for expanding non-commodities exports, the SACU region faces a global environment that has changed markedly over the past two decades. First, trade is increasingly shifting away from high income countries and toward developing countries. Second and perhaps most importantly, is the increasing importance of or ‘global production networks’ or ‘global value chains’ (GVCs). With wages rising rapidly in China and other places where GVC-oriented trade is concentrated, parts of these value chains are migrating to new global locations. Some estimates indicate that over the next generation 85 million manufacturing jobs will migrate from coastal China, and Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be a major beneficiary. The SACU region, with its abundance of natural capital and surplus labor, along with a relatively high quality infrastructure and institutional environment, should be in a good position to attract investment and create a ‘factory Southern Africa’. Beyond assembly manufacturing that is typical of GVCs (e.g. apparel, electronics, automotive), the region should also be well-placed to compete as a location for value-addition to agricultural and mineral commodities (‘beneficiation’). Both types of investment would not only drive exports and have the potential to create significant employment, but also support upgrading by accessing global technologies and knowledge. And with growing markets across Africa, a ‘factory Southern Africa’ might increasingly be sustainable in the regional context.

Abstract

The purpose of this policy note is to present reform options on cabotage liberalization. The goal of cabotage liberalization is to help i) foster more competition in the domestic shipping industry, ii) reduce shipping cost, and iii) improve efficiency, maritime services, and safety standards. These, together with complementary reforms in domestic shipping and ports, can help enhance consumer and producer welfare through lower consumer prices, higher household real income, timely delivery of goods, and ultimately, job creation and poverty reduction through greater market access. This policy note on cabotage is organized as follows. Part one provides an overview of the domestic shipping industry and discusses the key issues that it faces. Part two discusses the underlying reasons for the industry’s inefficiency. Part three discusses the concept of cabotage, the cost and benefit of cabotage liberalization, and the cabotage regimes of the Philippines and of selected countries. Part four closes with a discussion of reform options.

Abstract

This is a background paper to the Pacific Possible report. For many Pacific Island countries, tourism is the main economic opportunity to generate incomes and jobs. This report suggests that increasing tourism demand in four areas could drive growth of tourism arrivals in the Pacific: Increasing demand from Chinese tourists, retired persons, high income individuals, and cruise ship operators. It sets out key actions to capitalize on these potential sources of increased demand and ensure the development of the tourism sector in an environmentally, socially, and culturally sustainable manner.

Abstract

Globally, the Philippines is a minor emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but cost-effective mitigation present opportunities that should be captured, noting that the country is one of the signatory member states to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. The country accounts for less than 0.3 percent of global GHG emissions in 2004.4 However, emissions are on the rise from both energy-use and land-use changes. Even if the absolute scale will remain small, there are increasing number of development projects under preparation, which offers opportunities for cost-effective mitigation and adaptation measures. The Philippine Government's response to the climate change challenge has been active institutionally noting the recent restructuring of the Presidential task force on climate change. However, a clear strategy and action plan are still lacking. The international donor community, including development partners such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is actively engaged in addressing climate change in the Philippines. There are several initiatives on capacity building for GHG accounting, monitoring and reporting, for preparation of a second National Communication to the UNFCCC, governance, renewable energy, urban air quality management, and forest management. There are likewise several World Bank supported climate change-related activities, with nine active operations. These encompass primarily energy sector operations.